So, What Became Clear in July?

The border incident that took place a month ago was a unique starting point. It was followed by escalation. Russia supplied another batch of modern weapons to Azerbaijan after which the balance of forces was clearly broken. This circumstance caused a serious concern in Armenia and Artsakh and experts started speaking about the possibility of resumption of military actions. Komandos announced that a lot will become known in July. When July ended, he told us that he was going to Artsakh for holiday and there will be no military actions. What became known in July? In answer to Azerbaijan’s statements and acquisition of new weapons, he announced that in case of a new war this country will lose territories, the “security area” will be enlarged and deepened. Armenia took part in large-scale NATO exercise in Georgia, take steps towards intensifying political and economic relations. Apparently, there is a plan or a feeling that pushed the Armenian side in that direction. It created a balance and postponed it, if not prevented. July demonstrated that a more or less tough position and commitment to one’s own interests create a new situation, and first of all remove the circumstance of predictability in the Karabakh issue, which allowed Azerbaijan to pursue its military diplomacy and claims, and on the other hand, bring Russia into its claims. The problem was that Azerbaijan’s right to war was facilitated by Armenia’s behavior. By changing the policy and approaches in the Karabakh issue, Armenia may deprive Azerbaijan of this right, especially in a situation when the interested external parties have already done this after the war in April. For its part, the new politics may free Russia of its commitments to Azerbaijan. This does not mean that Azerbaijan will give up on its policy. However, in case of a new policy on Armenia every shot of Azerbaijan will work not only against itself but also against Russia. And this changes the situation, including the right to war is passed to the Armenian side with the ensuing consequences. Currently the situation is complicated but favorable for the new politics. Armenia has paid a high price for this opportunity though it was possible to avoid most losses. Running away from the war for some suspicious “settlement” leads to even bigger losses, the establishment of the right to war reduces its probability or scope.