By Rashid Shirinov
It's not quite Cold War II, but the cooling in the U.S.-Russia relations could prove to be one of the most challenging issues for the world, especially the South Caucasus region.
Beyond the prospect of the two world powers’ ‘accidentally’ brushing against each other in Europe or the Middle East, there is concern that a near-complete absence of communication could result in further prolongation of the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which threats the regional security.
Several experts have already voiced opinions that this factor will negatively affect the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which is mediated by the OSCE Minsk Group.
Although the OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by the Russian Federation, the United States and France, deals with the Nagorno-Karabakh issue for about three decades, its activities have brought no breakthrough results so far and the situations worsens due to the daily breaches of ceasefire and provocations of the Armenian forces.
Russian analyst and famous TV presenter Igor Shatrov, commenting on the issue, said that the OSCE Minsk Group is one of few international platforms where Russia and the United States have been able to speak with a common position.
“However, in recent times, with the aggravation of the Russian-American relations, the Karabakh problem may become a ticking time bomb,” Shatrov told Day.Az. “It may undermine not only the Russian-American relations. Peace throughout the Caucasus is at risk.”
Richard Hoagland, the U.S. co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, in turn, denied such thoughts, saying that Russia and the U.S. will continue to work together to resolve the conflict.
“The U.S. keeps on working with Russia over this issue, despite the worsening of the relations between the two countries,” he previously told the Voice of America. “Nothing has changed in our work with each other; the relations between the co-chairs have not altered. Politicians may collide with each other, but we intend to continue the work.”
Hoagland also noted that time has come for the parties to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to take steps to strengthen the trust.
Shatrov further added that he wouldn’t expect progress in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the near future, until the confidence between Russia and the U.S. is restored.
“Let’s not be naive. Trust between Azerbaijan and Armenia, for strengthening of which Ambassador Hoagland calls on, is impossible in the absence of trust between Russia and the U.S.," Shatrov said.
He added that time has come for drastic change in approaches to the solution of the Karabakh problem and reformation of the OSCE Minsk Group.
Azerbaijan and Armenia fought a lengthy war that ended with signing of a fragile ceasefire in 1994. Since the war, Armenian armed forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territory, including Nagorno-Karabakh and seven surrounding regions. More than 20,000 Azerbaijanis were killed and over 1 million were displaced as a result of the large-scale hostilities.
Armenia still ignores four UN Security Council resolutions on immediate withdrawal from the occupied territory of Azerbaijan, thus keeping tension high in the region. Although the OSCE Minsk Group, co-chaired by the Russian Federation, the United States and France, deals with the Nagorno-Karabakh issue for over two decades, its activities have brought no breakthrough results so far.