Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijani Opposition
April 6, 2018 Friday
What to expect after April 11?
by Analytical Service Turan
On April 9, the renovation of the republican leadership will be completed in Armenia. A 65-year-old President of the Republic of Armenia, Armen Sargsyan, elected March 2, 2018, will take office April 9. At the same time, the incumbent head of the republic Serzh Sargsyan will leave the presidency. It is very likely in Armenia that the former president Sargsyan will be elected prime minister in the parliament on April 17, according to the new Armenian constitution, he will actually be the head of state. This will complete the process of Armenia's transition to a parliamentary form of government.
On April 11, presidential elections will be held in Azerbaijan. Elections, according to the constitution, were planned for October this year, but in February 2018 President I.Aliyev unexpectedly for the population and politicians appointed early elections on April 11. At that time, analysts speculated about the reason for the outwardly unjustified decision to postpone the transfer. One of the versions, not the most popular one, was the desire of the Azerbaijani president to complete the administrative procedures with his almost re-election, at the same time with the end of similar events in Armenia, so that both sides of the Karabakh conflict returned to the peace talks.
It is possible that the proposal to synchronize its electoral campaign with the Armenian came to Aliyev from outside, from the superpower supervising the talks. And if to look for the force more close to the Karabakh process, it inevitably is Russia.
The Armenian media write about the new pressure on this country from Russia, which allegedly intends to force Yerevan to abandon Karabakh. Journalists and analysts provide various "evidence". The last is the unexpected entry of Russian military police into the territory of the republic, not only in Gumri, which in fact became a city for the Russian military base, but also in Yerevan. In Azerbaijan, they do not write about Russian pressure, as we do not have such obvious events in Armenia. So, there is complete mutual understanding between Baku and Moscow regarding the plan of forthcoming actions, but it's necessary to pressure Armenia. The conclusion is too superficial, very much in the style of the Armenian media, but excuse me, there is no other.
Let's not be unfounded: "On the one hand, they are trying to please Armenia, on the other hand they are continuing to sell weapons to Azerbaijan while deploying the military police in Armenia." We are in an extremely dangerous situation and the threat does not come from where it was expected. Then and now the threat comes from Russia," warns the publicist, political scientist, Anush Sedrakyan.
"On March 15, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, said that there is no representation of the Artsakh Republic in Moscow, that is, Russia once again "washed its hands" of Nagorno Karabakh once a month," concludes Acnis.am. By the way, the CSTO Secretary General "washed his hands off the Karabakh" by much more transparently saying that the CSTO will not be at war for Karabakh.
It should also be added that in a very small part of the Armenian public environment, there is readiness for compromises that suit Azerbaijan, or sufficient for an adequate proposal to Azerbaijan. Baku reads the Russian-speaking and even Armenian-language socio-political press and finds in publications the recognition of the impasse, the futility of the reality around Karabakh. Confessions, both in the form of separate statements, and expressed in the form of publications, explain to the local reader the need for changes in the Armenian official line in the Karabakh issue.
"The continuation of the conflict has a very big impact on migration, which is a very painful issue for us …", MP Naira Zohrabyan.
Hayk Gazaryan, a journalist from Nagorno-Karabakh, "According to official figures, they do not emigrate from Artsakh" refers to the departure of Armenians from the occupied territories, despite assurances from the local authorities that there is no such problem.http://theanalyticon.com /?p=3966&lang=en
The opinion of the Armenians is being "crushed" by new international realities: the long-term efforts of the separatists to create "Kurdistan" in the territory of the three Middle Eastern states have collapsed, Catalonia has been torn from Spain, and Scotland from Great Britain.
The leadership of Azerbaijan does not apply to the possible intensification of negotiations with Armenia after the end of the election campaigns in the two warring countries. Official Baku continues to disseminate promises about the restoration of Azerbaijani legality in Karabakh, and not excluding the use of military force. Against the backdrop of numerous threats from Baku, the statement of the presidential aide on public and political issues Ali Hasanov, who promised in December 2017 to the Armenians wide autonomy to Nagorno-Karabakh and the securing of the civil rights of the local Armenian population, looks dissonant. He talked about this in December 2017, and a month later, in early February, Aliyev postponed the presidential elections on April 11.
The Azerbaijani society does not believe the success of the Karabakh talks after the completion of the two election campaigns. "… imagine for a moment that Armenia and Azerbaijan somehow came to agreed. And why after this Armenia and Azerbaijan will need Russia and its armament? No, it is Russia that is doing and will do everything possible and impossible that this conflict will not be resolved as long as possible," commented on Ramiz Aslanov the new negotiations.