Defense & Foreign Affairs Special Analysis
 Tuesday


Armenia in Political Limbo as Sargsyan Leadership Move Collapses

 Vol. XXXVI, No. 24



Analysis. From GIS/Defense & Foreign Affairs sources in Yerevan.
Longtime Armenian leader Serzh Sargsyan's plan to emulate the
leadership transition models implemented by neighboring Turkey and
Russia collapsed on April 23, 2018, when the newly-installed Prime
Minister was forced to resign in the face of mass protests in the
three largest cities of the country. Mr Sargsyan had engineered a
transfer of most of the executive powers of the Presidency to the post
of Prime Minister, coincided to time with the end of his second and
final term as President, and then have Parliament, under the control
of his Republican Party of Armenia (Hayastani Hanrapetakan
Kusaktsutyun : HHK), elect him as Premier.

Presidential elections were held in Armenia on March 2, 2018, and, as
a result of the 2015 Armenian Constitutional Referendum, this was to
be the first time that the country's President would be elected by the
National Assembly instead of by direct, popular vote.



Under the results of the referendum, the Presidency would now become
largely ceremonial under what the Government called a move from a
"semi-presidential system" to a parliamentary republic. Outgoing Pres.
Serzh Sargsyan was, in any event, constitutionally prohibited for
running for a third consecutive term. Former Prime Minister (November
4, 1996 to March 20, 1997) Armen Vardani Sarkissian, and subsequently
Ambassador to the Court of St. James in the UK, ran unopposed for the
Presidency, and received 90 votes from the National Assembly,
representing 85.71 percent of the parliamentarians. Although he ran as
an independent, he was nominated by the Republican Party of Armenia
(outgoing Pres. Sargsyan's party) , and the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation. Pres. Sarkissian (no relation to the outgoing President)
was sworn into office on April 9, 2018.

On April 17, 2018, Parliamentarians elected former Pres. Sargsyan, 63,
as Prime Minister, in a 76 to 17 vote, ensuring that he would retain
control of the Government, now in the hands of the Office of Prime
Minister. Mr Sargsyan claimed that his premiership would not amount to
a third term in office because he would, he said, wield fewer powers
than he did in the Presidency of the republic, noting: "People have
still not realized that there is no one-man rule anymore." Mr
Sargsyan's candidacy was backed by the deputies from his ruling
Republican Party (HHK), its junior coalition partner, Dashnaktsutyun,
as well as more than a dozen lawmakers representing businessman Gagik
Tsarukian's nominally opposition alliance. Mr Tsarukian did not attend
the session.

However, Mr Sargsyan's election as Prime Minister immediately caused
protests to erupt, particularly in Yerevan, Gyumri, and Vanadzor.
Opposition figure and journalist Nikol Pashinian (leader of the Way
Out alliance, which won nine seats in the 2017 elections) was the
clear leader of the street protests, and he and several other
protestors, including opposition politician Sasun Mikaelian, were
arrested on April 22, 2018, after leading a march against the Prime
Minister in Yerevan's southern Erebuni district. Talks between Mr
Pashinian and Prime Minister Sagsyan had earlier failed to reach an
accord. The arrests only exacerbated the situation, with thousands of
protestors filling Republic Square on April 22, 2018, so on April 23,
2018, Mr Pashinian was released and rejoined the street protests.

The protestors had claimed that Mr Sargsyan had promised, when the
Referendum of 2015 took place, that he would not seek the Premiership
after departing the Presidency, and had now violated that pledge. As a
result, on April 23, 2018, Mr Sargsyan resigned the Premiership. In a
statement on his website, outgoing Prime Minister Sargsyan said that
Mr Pashinian "was right. I was wrong", and "I am leaving the post of
prime minister", and "The movement of the street is against my tenure.
I am fulfilling your demand." The Russian Government expressed
solidarity with Armenia following the Prime Minister's resignation.

The former Prime Minister, Karen Vilhelmi Karapetyan, who had been
displaced by Mr Sargsyan on April 17, 2018, resumed the Premiership on
April 23, 2018, in an acting capacity until Parliament could elect a
new Prime Minister.