Editorial
25 MAY 2018
An
ambiguous, unforeseen situation has arisen in Armenia: the majority of the
parliament is the opposition, and the smallest faction is the government. This
is a consequence of the RPA policy. The parliamentary majority is not
considered legitimate on the part of society, that is, the institution of
elections has been so raped that it is regarded as a prostitute, and the
government, in fact, was formed through direct public intervention.
The current
situation is not a constitutional crisis, but a discredited parliamentary
crisis due to electoral fraud, which caused such an exotic situation. As a
result, the main topic of the public discourse of today's Armenia is a possible
solution to this situation. In particular, two possible options are considered:
A / Counter-revolution.
Most of the National Assembly, feeling that public confidence in the current
government is weakening, is restoring its positions. In other words, being
incapable of accepting the necessary bills, the government either has to
resign, or a year later the majority of the National Assembly expresses a vote
of no-confidence in the government.
B / Rat
Races. The RPA faction is collapsing, and the parliament
becomes manageable for the executive body. A significant part of the RPA
faction, businessmen and local authorities, are under the control of the
government. To control them, the latter has at hand two effective tools –
direct dependence on the government and increased attention of law enforcement.
The RPA political group becomes a minority in the National Assembly.
Both
"counterrevolutionaries" and "revolutionaries" are in the
same trap and have one option – to meet public demand. Demand remains the same:
joint efforts to implement deep structural reforms that will not allow us to
return to the pre-revolutionary situation. The changes will guarantee that both
sides can continue to live in Armenia. And now let’s consider the probability
of two scenarios.
The revolution
was not realized for the sake of the Civil Contract party, but against the
system embodied by Serzh Sargsyan. The attitude of people towards the current
government can change, but in no case will it change with respect to the former
government and a return to the old order and old people will not be allowed.
This is the cornerstone of the national agreement. And in this sense, the
expectations of "counterrevolution" are false. Neither Nikol
Pashinyan nor the current government is the main obstacle to the return to the
old order. This is the mass of young people who do not want to return to Old
Armenia.
This
"optimistic" approach is conditioned by the precedent of the
"Yerkrapaitisation" of the "Hanrapetutiun" (Republic)
Faction of the ANM, which occurred within one day in 1998. Republicans are
concerned about the possibility of "rat race", but they do not
understand one simple thing: the rat race will be the first blow not for
themselves, but for the current government. In 1998 there was a coup d'état,
and there were no qualitative changes either in the management system or in the
public consciousness. "Racers" were traitors to their former
teammates, and the public was indifferent to this phenomenon. In this
situation, the current government can not tolerate this "gift" in its
ranks, because the revolutionary society will not accept it. They can not be in
a new management system in any status.
Both sides are
compelled to fulfill the demand of the public – to make irreversible changes in
the country, which will not allow us to return to the old ways and relations.
Other scenarios are dangerous for both sides.
https://acnis.am/en/editorial/19-2018-en