Yerevan June 01
Karina Melikyan. The state debt of Armenia, demonstrating a monthly growth of 1.5% in the first quarter of 2018, declined only slightly (by 0.3%) in April, which "delayed" it at $ 6.9 bln. In the annual cut (in April 2018 by April 2017), the state debt of Armenia increased by 14.2%. According to preliminary data of the RA Ministry of Finance, provided by the ArmInfo National Statistical Service, foreign debt increased by 12.2% per annum – up to $ 5.5 billion (2.7 trillion drams), with an annual growth of domestic debt by 8.3% to $ 1.3 billion (644.5 billion AMD).
On a monthly basis, external debt, after rising 1.8% in the first quarter of 2018, declined in April, and domestic debt continued to grow, a total of 4.2% in January-April.
By way of comparison, in April 2017, by April 2016, the growth of the external debt by 8.9% and domestic debt by 50% increased the total state debt of Armenia by 14%. Only in January April 2017, external debt grew by 2.1%, domestic debt – by 9.1%, which increased the total national debt by 2.4%. In the structure of external debt 89.1% or $ 4.9 billion accounted for by the government, and the remaining 10.9% or $ 606.1 million – by the Central Bank. And the external debt of the government increased by 14% in April 2018 by April 2017, which is slightly lower than the growth rate of the external debt of the Central Bank by 15.9%, against the more modest growth rates in April 2017 by April 2016 – 8.3% and 6, respectively, 6%. Only in January-April 2018 the government's external debt increased by 0.8% and the same growth was recorded in the external debt of the Central Bank (against growth of 0.7% and 3.6% a year earlier, respectively). Moreover, the external debt of both the government and the Central Bank, after monthly growth in the I quarter of 2018, in April showed a decline – by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, while a year earlier in January-April both the government and the Central Bank monthly increased external debt.
In the structure of the domestic state debt, government bonds dominate, in April 2018 the share was 87.9% ($ 1.2 billion or 567 billion AMD), with an annual growth of absolute value of 9.1%. Then followed the Armenian Eurobonds – $ 151.3 million or 73.1 billion AMD, which accounted for 11.3%, with an annual increase in the absolute value of 24.7%. The rest is covered by guarantees – 0.8% ($ 9 million), with an annual unchanged. Only for January-April 2018 domestic debt on government bonds increased by 9.1%, and on eurobonds, on the contrary, fell by 2.5%. A year earlier, in April 2017, government bonds accounted for 89% of the internal state debt structure, with an annual increase in the absolute value of 57.1%, followed by Eurobonds – 10.2%, with an annual increase in absolute value of 42.4%, and the share guarantees was 0.8%, with an annual increase in the absolute value of 7.1 times.
To note, according to the World Bank's updated forecasts in May, the share of Armenia's state debt in GDP is expected to be at 58.6%, with a slight decrease to 58.3% in 2019. On the economic growth of Armenia, the World Bank has improved its forecast for 2018 from the previous 3.8% to the current 4.1%, and by 2019, the growth expectations have been kept at 4%.
To note, Armenia's state debt increased by 15.3% to $ 6.8 billion (3.3 trillion AMD) in 2017 due to the growth of external debt by 14.6% to $ 5.5 billion (2.7 trillion AMD) and the growth of domestic debt by 18.2% to $ 1.3 billion (619.5 billion AMD). By way of comparison, we note that for 2016, the growth of the external debt by 11.6% and domestic debt by 49% increased the total state debt of Armenia by 17%. The growing national debt and continuing migration in Armenia have already deepened the specific debt load per capita to $ 2.3 thousand by January 1, 2018, of which over $ 1.8 thousand comes from external debt, against $ 2 thousand and $ 1.6 thousand, respectively, by January 1, 2017. Taking into account the real scale of migration, the burden of public debt per capita would be much higher (according to statistical data as of January 1, 2018, the population of the RA was 2.973 million, against 2.986 million a year earlier and 3.274 million five years earlier). In 2017, the degree of coverage of external debt with gold and foreign exchange reserves decreased from 45.9% to 39.6% amid a significant increase in external debt, with a meager decline in reserves. The share of national debt in Armenia's GDP reached 58.8% by the end of 2017, against 56.6% in 2016.