Armenia’s revolution miracle

The Washington Post
June 15, 2018 Friday


Armenia's revolution miracle

by David Ignatius
EDITORIAL COPY; Pg. A19


YEREVAN, Armenia

If you're looking for some good news from a faraway land, here's a
tale of Armenia's "velvet revolution," which just deposed a corrupt,
authoritarian government and installed a team of eager young reformers
to govern a tiny nation perilously bordering Russia.

Maybe it's the start of a counter-trend, in a world where so many
indicators of freedom and good governance have been pointing downward.
But it must be said: Time is not on the revolutionaries' side. The
squeeze on Armenia, from its neighbors and domestic power brokers,
could undo the gains of the bottom-up protest movement that toppled
the long-entrenched, pro-Moscow government of Prime Minister Serzh
Sargsyan.

For now, there's something of a festival atmosphere here, as Armenians
enjoy the aftermath of what the new prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan,
described to me as a "revolution of love and solidarity." Bands play
in the streets, people spontaneously cheer Pashinyan in public, and
the post-Soviet haze seems, for now, to have cleared.

Pashinyan spoke with me for an hour last Friday at his grand office on
Republic Square, in the center of the capital. He looked slightly
uncomfortable in a dark business suit. The popular image of him is of
a guy in a baseball cap who led a march on the capital that grew so
large it paralyzed the government. Barricading the streets were jazz
musicians atop a piano, a chamber quartet and a young boy halting
traffic with a line of toy trucks.

The protests had become so widespread that Sargsyan faced a choice of
using force on fellow citizens or stepping down. In a nation whose
political identity is tied to its tragic history, Sargsyan wisely
chose the latter: On April 23, the day before the annual commemoration
of the 1915 Ottoman genocide that killed more than 1 million
Armenians, Sargsyan resigned.

The miracle of this revolution is that it happened at all. Russia had
long supported Sargsyan and his oligarch cronies. But in May, after
Sargsyan's fall, the Kremlin didn't block Pashinyan's accession to
prime minister. That's partly because Pashinyan declared, as he told
me, that his movement had "no geopolitical agenda."

Russian President Vladimir Putin could still make life very difficult
for the new Armenia. In Yerevan last weekend, I heard reports from
diplomats that if Moscow doesn't receive new pledges of fealty, it
might halt arms sales, on which Armenia depends to counter neighboring
Azerbaijan in the disputed area known as Nagorno Karabakh. Russia's
tolerance for political liberalization may come at a price.

What's next for the velvet revolution? Pashinyan outlined his program,
but it was long on democratic idealism and thin on specifics.

His first priority is to stop the corruption that has been leaching
away the creative and entrepreneurial spirit for which Armenians are
often known. "Unfortunately, Armenia was a very corrupt country in the
last 25 years," Pashinyan told me, with cronies close to the
leadership taking what amounted to a private tax on the economy.
"People were fed up with that situation," he said.

Linked to Pashinyan's anti-graft campaign is a commitment to break up
the monopolies that dominate key sectors of the economy. Armen
Grigoryan, the new national security adviser, worked previously for
Transparency International, an anti-corruption group. He explained in
an interview that the Armenian economy could grow if the new
government could shed more light on its operations and "decrease
interaction between the state and the citizen."

The new government will need to put teeth into this anti-corruption
push by holding some of the bribe-takers accountable. "I'm not going
to give orders to judges," Pashinyan insisted, but he warned: "We will
try to identify and bring to responsibility the most corrupt people."
To combat monopolies, he'll need to capitalize new, smaller companies,
perhaps through a national investment bank.

Breaking free of the gravitational field of the past will take all of
Pashinyan's idealism and energy - and also some raw political power.
He told me that it's "very likely" he'll hold a snap election for a
new parliament by October or November, well before the April deadline.
And the courts are already releasing some prominent political
prisoners.

Armenia is a subject on which I'm hardly neutral, as my father's
family has Armenian roots. During my visit here, I helped host the
Aurora humanitarian awards, created by a group of prominent Armenians
to honor human rights champions from other countries. Armenia has
experienced more than its share of bad news, historically and in the
recent, post-Soviet past. So it was encouraging to see Yerevan as a
city of smiles after its dramatic moment of change.