June 2018 has proved to be full of events linked to [Azerbaijan's breakaway] Nagorno-Karabakh and Azerbaijan's Karabakh policy: Statements in and trips to Xankandi [Stepanakert] by [new Armenian Prime Minister] Nikol Pashinyan; statements on this issue by Russian Federation Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova; the military parade in Baku [on Army Day, 26 June]; and the actions of Azerbaijani troops in Naxcivan make it clear that the Karabakh process is not frozen and open and covert processes are under way. The Turan agency tried to clarify what is unfolding together with political analyst Elhan Sahinoglu.
Russia's role in resolution of Karabakh conflict
[Turan] It is being said in society that [Russian President] Vladimir Putin is dissatisfied with Nikol Pashinyan's foreign policy, so Russia may put pressure on Armenia, forcing it to cede its interests in Karabakh.
[Sahinoglu] In reality, Pashinyan has not done anything that Putin might have disliked. The Kremlin has three conditions for the resolution of the Karabakh conflict: Azerbaijan must become a member of the [Russian-led] EEU [Eurasian Economic Union], join the [Russian-led] CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation], and agree to station Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh. It is risky for Azerbaijan to accept these conditions, because if it accepts them, Azerbaijan's balanced foreign policy will end and Baku's relations with the West will be in question. On the other hand, if Putin sympathises with us, as some people maintain, what has hindered him from taking a step to become closer to Azerbaijan? We cannot see this. There are no positive signals.
Azerbaijan does not need Russia's help. What we need is Russia staying out of our way, which did not happen [in Karabakh] in April 2016. We liberated little territories, because Russia impeded us.
Experts from Moscow criticise Armenia, expressing sympathies with Azerbaijan and often arriving in Baku. However, this does not mean that Putin sympathises with our country. It does not mean that Putin is attentively listening to the words of these experts. They say that following Moscow's entireties, Sargsyan was ready to return to us the five districts around Nagorno-Karabakh, but Nikol Pashinyan hindered this. Sargsyan remained in power for 10 years, but he did nothing to return our districts. He did not want to withdraw troops from Azerbaijani districts and Moscow did not put pressure on him. Experts Oleg Kuznetsov, Alexander Dugin, and others criticise Armenia and promote Azerbaijan's positive image in the Russian Federation. That is all. This does not mean that reality is the same as experts would like to show.
Pashinyan 'not ready' for peace with Azerbaijan
[Turan] Pashinyan insists on getting the de facto leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh involved in negotiations on Karabakh.
[Sahinoglu] Nikol Pashinyan wants to make changes to the Karabakh problem. He speaks about his readiness to meet [Azerbaijani] President Ilham Aliyev, but Karabakh representatives must participate in this meeting, as Pashinyan cannot make decisions instead of them, as he says. Baku will not accept this proposal, because our land is occupied by Armenia. If Baku starts negotiations with Karabakh separatists, Armenia's role in the occupation will become insignificant. The second reason is that Nagorno-Karabakh representatives can become involved in the negotiations at the next stage of the negotiations, but definitely together with representatives of Azerbaijanis from Karabakh. Without this, Baku will not meet separatists.
There is no difference between Pashinyan and [former Armenian President Serzh] Sargsyan in the Karabakh process. Pashinyan wants to show that he is as strong a separatist as Sargsyan. Over the less than past two months since his election to the post of prime minister, he flew twice to Nagorno-Karabakh and made new separatist statements there. After Pashinyan returned to Yerevan, Armenians held an aviation show in the Xocali airport with light planes participating. Pashinyan took a photo in a Russian Su-30 fighter plane and put the photo in social networks as if wishing to show that Yerevan would soon purchase such aircraft. Questions emerged in Azerbaijani society whether it was time for our military planes to appear in the sky over Karabakh. International organisations regard the sky as Azerbaijani, which means that in this case, the emergence of our aviation in Karabakh must be a normal event.
Pashinyan is not ready for peace with Azerbaijan. A former [Armenian] leader, Levon Ter-Petrosyan, expressed support for the plan for stage-by-stage settlement. Interestingly, he is keeping silent now. Many in Armenia realise that until relations of the country with Turkey and Azerbaijan are normalised, the country will not develop. They realise this, but cannot openly say this.
United Nations doing nothing, army to liberate occupied lands
[Turan] Developments in Naxcivan, the state of the Azerbaijani Army in general, and the military parade – what are peculiarities of the pieces of news?
[Sahinoglu] The height in Naxcivan the Azerbaijani Army seized has a negative impact on Pashinyan's image. This can be a start of serious changes. The Azerbaijani Army can continue in Karabakh the successful movements in Naxcivan. It is not going to be a large-scale war, but rather a change of positions to improve strategic positions. Such moves give our army psychological advantages. We do not have a way back. The battles in April 2016 strengthened people's trust in the army. Negotiations have not brought any success and they will never bring any success.
When diplomacy has no power, the army comes to the foreground. The Army has now become a leading factor. Azerbaijani soldiers and officers are ready to fight, waiting for a convenient moment. This is natural. Over the past 25 years, a generation has grown up in Armenia, who do not want to die for Karabakh. Points of tension must strengthen and expand on the line of contact in order to force the occupiers to sit down at the table of negotiations.
The military parade held on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the Azerbaijani Army showed that our army is gradually shifting away from Soviet standards, drawing closer to those of Nato. This becomes evident from the equipment and the way soldiers and officers look. It was necessary to show all this to the world and Armenia. Speaking at the parade, Ilham Aliyev said that war is not over and only its first stage ended. International law is not in force. International law is on Azerbaijan's side, but Armenia does not stop occupying our lands.
At the joint news conference of the UN secretary general and Russian foreign minister on 21 June, Sergei Lavrov said that the UN resolutions on Karabakh were adopted during war in order to stop a big and bloody war and to switch the conflict to the track of negotiations. However, resolutions stated clearly that it was necessary to free the occupied districts. After such a statement, Azerbaijan will find it difficult to refer to the UN resolutions, as this organisation and permanent members of the UN Security Council are doing nothing to implement the four resolutions on freeing the lands. This is advantageous for Armenia, as they never recall the UN resolutions there. A vast majority of Azerbaijanis have become convinced that the only alternative in liberating the lands are the actions of the army.
Our army is acting in accordance with a new strategy shown in April 2016 and recently in Naxcivan, occupying strategic heights by means of minor military operations. Superpowers cannot deter our army. Russia did not allow to advance the offensive in 2016, but Russian officials did not say anything about the developments in Naxcivan. After the Naxcivan operation, Ilham Aliyev met in Moscow Putin, who spoke about top level political connections between our countries. And now Armenian experts fear that after the end of the Football Championship in Russia, the Azerbaijani Army will again launch an offensive. If not after the championship, such a thing is possible at any other time and the beginning of the offensive depends on us.