[Armenian News note: the below article is translated/summarized from Azeri]
Russia seeks to keep the Karabakh conflict frozen in order to be able to influence Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The article, published by the Baku-based opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat, was commenting on statements that Russian figures made at a conference held to discuss bilateral relations in the village of Cocuq Marcanli in Azerbaijan's Cabrayil District. It also suggested that words of support for Baku voiced by Russian political commentators at the event showed that Moscow would only take sides with Azerbaijan regarding the Karabakh conflict if the two countries became close allies.
The commentary praised the fact that the political commentators, who it said "are believed to be close to President Putin and are able to influence Russian public opinion", made statements that were "consonant" with Azerbaijan's position. The article said that those figures were Alexander Dugin, Maksim Shevchenko, Igor Korotchenko, and State Duma members – "overall, people who have good feelings for us". It said their remarks highlighted Azerbaijan's growing importance for Russia and were also a warning "red line" for Armenia.
The article said the fact that the village of Cocuq Marcanli – which Azerbaijan regained from Armenians in April 2016 – was chosen to host the conference and the guests went up to the Lalatapa post to meet Azerbaijani soldiers and wish them successes was "an interesting move and, no doubt, should be viewed as a message to the Armenians". In other words, the article said, it all meant that "if you [Armenians] do not behave… Moscow may once again turn a blind eye to the Azerbaijani army's advancement".
However, the article went on, one should not be euphoric about those statements and moves in favour of Azerbaijan. "Because the final say regarding Karabakh is Putin's," it said and pointed out that Putin had so far not called Armenia an "occupier" even once. "With all the unique opportunities in his hands, he has not made a real contribution to the resolution of the conflict," the article said.
It said that even though Azerbaijan had not lost any part of its territory in the course of Putin's rule, but on the contrary, regained thousands of hectares in Karabakh and in the exclave Naxcivan, the Karabakh conflict had not yet been resolved because Moscow's traditional approach suggested "continuation of the conflict" and extension of the "occupying regime" in Karabakh.
Unfortunately, Moscow does not seem to be aiming to radically resolve the Karabakh conflict. On the contrary, it looks like "Moscow needs the conflict to stay frozen in order to keep Azerbaijan and Armenia in its orbit", the commentary suggested.
The article recalled statements made at the conference by Alexey Yezubov, an MP from the ruling United Russia party – "Russia and Azerbaijan are fraternal and allied countries. We should be together, we should be in a union"; "Armenia should give five districts back to Azerbaijan. Putin has said that this is Russia's unchanged position" and "Karabakh is an inalienable part of Azerbaijan". The article highlighted that the statements suggested Moscow could give Azerbaijan support in the Karabakh issue in return for Baku being always by Moscow's side and joining the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. "In brief, Moscow has conditions for Baku," the article said.
At present, one of the Kremlin's concerns is to keep Armenia in check following the change of government in Yerevan, the article said. It said the Kremlin opened "volley fire" on Yerevan and did it from Azerbaijani territory. "This is a warning message to the Armenian leadership. Perhaps, it is the last one [warning message]," it said.
It added that Dugin also touched on the topic of NATO ahead of the organisation's Brussels summit which Pashinyan was preparing to attend. Dugin openly called on Armenia "to be smart", the article said.