A change of power in [Azerbaijan's breakaway] Nagorno-Karabakh is possible only at the discretion of the new Armenian government, but they supported president Bako Sahakyan and the reforms he has started, political analysts interviewed by Kavkazsky Uzel have said. Yerevan does not contemplate Samvel Babayan as an important figure in Nagorno-Karabakh, Boris Navasardyan believes. He enjoys a high approval rating, but the public has not forgotten Babayan's non-democratic approaches in the times he was in power [Babayan was commander of the Nagorno-Karabakh army until 1999], Hakob Badalyan noted. Babayan himself will not destabilise the situation, Ruben Mehrabyan said. He does not have a serious political weight to have claims to power, Armen Badalyan thinks.
Kavkazsky Uzel reported that on 6 July, Babayan's supporters urged residents of [Karabakh capital] Stepanakert [Xankandi] to assemble on 10 July to meet former Nagorno-Karabakh defence minister, when he would enter the town. Babayan himself told journalists on 6 July that he was ready to go to Nagorno-Karabakh, if the Armenian government and public regarded this as necessary. [Babayan was sentenced to six years in prison on charges of delivering PZRK (portable antiaircraft missile systems) to Armenia. Babayan and the opposition described the sentence as politically motivated. After the velvet revolution in Armenia, on 15 June, the Armenian Court of Appeals returned the case to the court of the original jurisdiction and ruled to release Babayan from custody.]
Pashinyan supported reforms launched by Sahakyan
Samvel Babayan's reputation is ambiguous. On the one hand, he enjoys unconditional standing in certain circles, but opposing opinion is also expressed about him, as the public still has questions regarding the period, when he was in power, political observer Hakob Badalyan said.
He believes that Babayan will visit Nagorno-Karabakh without any political claims. "The Armenian government supported president Bako Sahakyan and [Armenian Prime Minister] Nikol Pashinyan supported the reforms he had launched. Bako Sahakyan has effectively become a locum tenens, who is to carry out reforms in the government and depart. It is another issue, whether this is to happen before 2020 or earlier [phrase as published], but reforms should be carried out. And things have remained within the frames of this logic so far," the political observer explained.
Certain consensus between the government and society has taken shape in Nagorno-Karabakh, Badalyan believes: "This provides grounds to presume that there are going to be no attempts to destabilise the situation. However, if someone decides to use his [Babayan's] approval rating for his own political purposes, it will be, first, a marginal force and second, the attempt is going to be unsuccessful, as this goes contrary to relations between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh," he said.
Consensus has been reached in Nagorno Karabakh on the need of carrying out reforms and there are no grounds for Sahakyan's resignation before his term in office expires, Ruben Mehrabyan, an expert of the Centre for Political ad International Studies, believes.
"Nagorno-Karabakh, its leadership, and president Bako Sahakyan, who will remain in the post until 2020, enjoy unconditional support from the Armenian government and there are no grounds to believe that the president will depart before his term in office expires. Moreover, Samvel Babayan himself said that he does not intend to destabilise the situation," Mehrabyan told Kavkazsky Uzel.
He said that domestic political destabilisation posed threats to Nagorno-Karabakh's security and Babayan would not resort to this step. "It is another issue that Babayan is a man, who has unique experience and his personal qualities may be highly sought in military affairs, state-building, and reinforcement of national security," Mehrabyan noted.
Destabilisation in Nagorno-Karabakh to harm Armenia's foreign policy
Spin doctor Armen Badalyan thinks that there are no grounds to regard Babayan as a rival of Sahakyan. "Bako Sahakyan has said that he is not going to run in the election in 2020. Correspondingly, they cannot be competitors or rivals… The Armenian government are sending messages that they support reforms and that the government must be replaced according to the planned scenario," Badalyan told Kavkazsky Uzel.
He said that the Armenian government would not allow domestic political destabilisation in Nagorno-Karabakh, taking into account tensions on both the frontline and the border with Naxcivan. He believes that destabilisation in Nagorno-Karabakh will harm Armenia's foreign policy.
"The new government is now focused on the domestic political situation in Armenia proper, settlement of the Karabakh conflict, and development of relations with the EU and Nato, so destabilisation in Nagorno-Karabakh is not advantageous for them. That is why it is important to maintain stability," the spin doctor stressed.
Badalyan nevertheless did not rule out that two former Armenian presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan, who are natives of Nagorno-Karabakh, may try to retrieve their losses, but, according to the spin doctor, they will fail to use for their own purposes both Bako Sahakyan and Samvel Babayan.
"Bako Sahakyan will not cede his positions. It will be not so easy to remove him. If such a demand comes from the new [Armenian] government, he will cede… As regards Samvel Babayan, he does not have serious political weight to lay claims to power. It should be born in mind that he was accused of attempting on [former Karabakh] president Arkadi Ghukasyan's life [on 22 March 2000, when two people wounded Ghukasyan and his bodyguard and driver. On 26 February 2001, Babayan was sentenced to 14 years in prison, but was pardoned on 17 September 2004 because of his deteriorating health]. In addition, he was distinguished with his 'heavy-handed' policy, when he was in power. People in Nagorno-Karabakh remember this. On top of this, he is very experienced in clannish struggling. It will be difficult to use him for someone's own purposes," Badalyan noted.
Babayan failed to secure support from new Armenian government
In order to lay claims to power in Nagorno-Karabakh, you need to be trusted by the new Armenian government. However, they do not regard Samvel Babayan as an "important political figure in Nagorno-Karabakh", the head of the Yerevan Press Club, Boris Navasardyan believes.
He noted that Nikol Pashinyan and his team enjoyed popularity in society in Karabakh and the opinion of the new government was decisive. "I do not think that the former defence minister has any good prospects. It is not the question of the Armenian government's desire to avoid destabilisation. Some replacement will be found for Bako Sahakyan by the end of his term in office. Samvel Babayan's candidacy is simply not very attractive with all due respect for his military exploits," Navasardyan told Kavkazsky Uzel.
At the same time, the head of the Press Club believes that the former minister has supporters, who have supported him since he was in opposition to president Arkadi Ghukasyan. There are also people linked to him in the government, the army, and business. "However, Samvel Babayan will not resort to destabilisation. He is one of those people, who could bid defiance, having a real opportunity to do so. However, it is senseless to launch anything without support from Yerevan. Therefore, the ex-minister's behaviour is going to be accurate," he believes.
An early presidential election is possible in Nagorno-Karabakh, if a real figure, who enjoys support both in Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia emerges, he added. "No such figure can be seen at this stage. Therefore, it is expedient for both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia to maintain stability, allowing Bako Sahakyan to exhaust his term in office," Navasardyan believes.