The New South Wales premier, Gladys Berejiklian, has apologised to voters after a disastrous showing in the Wagga Wagga byelection looked set to see the seat slip out of the Liberal party’s grip for the first time in 60 years.
The party is almost certain to lose the previously ultra-safe seat in the Riverina region as the messy leadership spill in Canberra cost the sitting state government dear in Saturday’s poll.
“It’s likely that we’ll get the highest primary vote, but, of course, not enough to hold the seat,” Berejiklian said on Sunday. “It’s the most likely outcome is that independent Joe McGirr will win the seat.”
She apologised to voters for the byelection forced by the resignation of the disgraced MP Daryl Maguire.
“I want the people of Wagga to know that my government will work hard across NSW, but especially in that region, to win back the trust that we have clearly lost.
Acknowledging the impact of the ructions in Canberra that replaced Malcolm Turnbull with Scott Morrison, she said: “The overwhelming message I was getting is that people were sick of politicians fighting amongst themselves and sick of the perception that politicians were in it for themselves and not the community.
“And the circumstances which forced the previous member to resign, plus what happened at a different level of government, exacerbated those feelings that people had.”
Results so far show a projected swing of about 29% against the state’s Coalition government, with McGirr most likely to take the seat ahead of Labor.
Speaking to supporters in his Wagga backyard on Saturday night, McGirr said he was feeling “quietly optimistic” but didn’t expect a result until Sunday.
The doctor and academic ruled out joining the Coalition once in government.
The NSW Liberal state director, Chris Stone, on Saturday told the party’s election-might function that “on current projections it will be very difficult for us to get there”. The Liberal candidate, Julia Ham, told the subdued crowd she would consider running in the statewide election in March.
The Labor candidate, Dan Hayes, declared that the community had “made Wagga marginal again” after arriving at his party’s election-night reception to rapturous applause. Hayes said the local and national scandals had stoked community anger.
The premier and several senior colleagues acknowledged that Turnbull’s knifing had deterred some voters in Wagga but the federal senator Jim Molan dismissed those concerns, saying it “wasn’t a factor”.
“People were very disappointed that we were spending time taking about ourselves and to ourselves but it’s something that every now and again that you’ve got to go through,” Molan said. “We don’t go through leadership spill for fun, I can tell you that.
The deputy prime minister, Michael McCormack, wouldn’t be drawn on whether the federal Coalition would be to blame for a Liberal loss, saying the government wasn’t intending on losing the seat.