Turan Information Agency, Azerbaijani Opposition Press
Saturday
Labyrinths of Pashinyan
by ASTNA.biz
-What is the purpose of placing a telephone conversation in the Internet between the Director of the National Security Service of Armenia, Arthur Vanesyan, and the head of the Special Investigation Service, Sasun Khachiatryan?
-There is no secret for anyone: to strike at the new Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who has not yet strengthened his post. It is known that after Pashinyan came to power, operative and investigative actions were launched against former President Robert Kocharian, the brother of another former President, Serge Sargsyan, and members of his family, against representatives of the Karabakh clan. The investigation is conducted on charges of organizing bloody events on March 1, 2008 with the aim of overthrowing the Constitutional system, as well as allegations of corruption. It is clear that the judicial perspective on both charges does not promise anything good to the representatives of the former regime. There is even no need to get acquainted with the case materials in order to know about enough evidence.
As a results of this process the clan can be erased from the history of Armenia, and even they can lose their property and freedom. Therefore, while there is an opportunity they are trying to stop this process, there is no doubt that they have serious foreign support in the person of Russia. Moscow could not find a strong figure that could replace Sarkisyan, for this reason Moscow she had to enter into the game already used people. The fact that Robert Kocharyan was released from arrest, and Putin personally congratulated him on the phone on his birthday, indicates that Moscow is not interested in the destruction of the clan, and is trying to leave the old team in the game. The fact that a leak of telephone conversation between the heads of two law enforcement agencies was committed is an attempt to demonstrate that criminal cases are politically motivated. They are conducted by Pashinyan's order and they do not have a legal basis. Thus, the goal is to question the legitimacy of the criminal prosecution of the representatives of the regime, both within the country and among the international community. Another goal is to shake Pashinyan's authority, his support, create obstacles for the implementation of his political program. Pashinyan wants to quickly dissolve the parliament and get the elections. If new elections are held in the shortest time, Pashinyan's bloc will win with a big advantage, it will be very difficult to remove him from power, and maybe it is impossible, at least for the clan. Therefore, the old system wants to use the available opportunities. The minimum plan is to delay implementation of Pashinyan's political program with such deeds. The maximum plan is not to allow the implementation of this program at all and stop Pashinyan.
– Who is behind this?
– Behind this are either the people of the overthrown regime, which are inside the law enforcement and security agencies, or the Russian intelligence. Or, both forces together carry out this operation. In Armenia, Russia has two military bases. This means that what is known as the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, that is, military intelligence operates freely in Armenia. This structure has very high technological capabilities, so listening and recording telephone conversations is the easiest thing.
-The suspicion is that these events occurred after Pashinyan's visit to Moscow. It seems that Moscow did not like Pashinyan's behavior. What do you think about this? How will Pashinyan come out of this situation? Will he be able to change the situation in his favor?
– Pashinyan during his last trip to Russia tried to behave like the leader of an independent state, let Putin understand "do not interfere in our affairs, respect our sovereignty." I do not think that Putin liked this behavior and the imperialist circles of Moscow. Pashinyan irritated Moscow so much. After many years in Armenia, a politician who is not a man of Russia came to power. And how did he come to power? The most unacceptable option for Russia is the people's revolution. Imagine that Armenia is the strongest outpost of Russia not only in the post-Soviet space but also in the whole world. And suddenly important political process, not controlled by Russia happen there – a change of power; a person whose actions do not meet the interests of Russia came to power. Naturally, he must be punished, at least, he should be sent a warning signal, and Moscow is doing it now. Pashinyan is in a very difficult situation. On the one hand, as a prime minister, he has broad powers, but the system is not subject to him. That is, the head of state is opposed to the system. Or vice versa: the system is resisting the new leader. In order to put an end to this situation, early elections are needed, there is no other way out. However, in this matter, the word belongs to the existing parliament. Only if the parliamentary majority agrees, the current legal deadlock can be overcome. To take a decision on conducting early elections, the prime minister should resign and the attempt to elect a new prime minister should be twice unsuccessful. But Pashinyan is afraid if he resigns, the parliamentary majority will elect his own man. Moreover, the possibility of Serge Sargsyan's return may arise. Therefore, Pashinyan, by amending the Constitution, wants to simplify the dissolution of the parliament. However, there is a need for this in the current parliament. That is, Pashinyan now seems to have got into the labyrinth. It is not easy to find a way out of this labyrinth. His only resource is popular support. I think if Pashinyan's bloc wins with a big advantage during the elections to the Yerevan municipality on September 23, he, inspired by this fact, will direct the people's pressure on the parliament and will try to obtain making necessary decisions. There is no doubt that in this case the tension will increase, and the confrontation will increase.
– So, Pashinyan is opposed to a great power. Some experts say that Pashinyan's resistance can lead Armenia to chaos. The events that happened in Georgia and Ukraine can happen in Armenia. How real are these assumptions?
– Of course, there is possibility of a chaos in Armenia. If the system, the remnants of the old regime, the Karabakh clan continue to resist the Pashinyan system, then the tension will increase. Pashinyan will have no choice but to urge people to go to the streets. And the attempt to make political decisions under the pressure of the masses will not please Moscow. There is a possibility that Russia will declare these processes unconstitutional. It does not promise Pashinyan anything good.
How can the stubbornness Pashinyan and the events in Armenia affect Azerbaijan? In this context, probably, Russia will also need something from Azerbaijan. Can this time Russia use the Nagorno Karabakh conflict as a threat against Armenia?
– Russia will each time try to realize pressure on Pashinyan. It will create alternate traps in relation to it. The first step in this direction was the placement of the telephone conversation of two high-ranking officials in a social media. There are opportunities inside the country to neutralize Pashinyan. To do this, it is necessary to spoil his image, dissolve popular support. Russia is able to create chaos, political and economic crisis in Armenia. It is possible to use the Karabakh card if the attempts within the country do not give any result. It is also possible that Pashinyan will find a common language with Russia. It should be borne in mind that the bridges between the two camps have not been burned. The above said does not mean Russia is currently trying to overthrow Nikol Pashinyan at any cost. I do not think that Moscow has made such a decision.