The Guardian(London)
 Wednesday 8:00 PM GMT


Gladys Berejikilian calls for immigration cut - but it could cost NSW

The New South Wales premier, herself the daughter of immigrants, wants
state's migrant intake halved

by Michael McGowan and Nick Evershed


Gladys Berejiklian has become the latest politician to weigh into
Australia's population debate, calling for a return to "Howard-era
immigration levels".

On Wednesday the New South Wales premier, herself the daughter of
Armenian immigrants, called for a halving of the state's migrant
intake, citing concerns about population growth in Sydney.

But a Guardian analysis of immigration data shows any reduction in
migration in Australia would involve hard and potentially costly
choices for the state's economy.

While permanent arrivals in Australia are at the same level as they
were under the Howard government, the increase in net overseas
migrants has been driven by the lucrative international student
market, tourists and skilled workers.

On Wednesday in an interview with the Daily Telegraph Berejiklian said
immigration in NSW had been allowed to "balloon out of control".

"It's time to tap the brakes and take a breather on immigration levels
to this state. We should return to Howard-era immigration levels in
NSW," she said.

"I'm the daughter of proud immigrants myself, but it's clear that
successive federal governments have allowed the rate of immigration to
NSW to balloon out of control."

But an analysis of migration figures by Guardian Australia shows that
while net overseas migration has grown in NSW, the bulk of the
increase has come from international students who inject billions of
dollars into the state's economy.

And permanent migration figures are on par with the end of the Howard
era - after almost doubling during his 11 years in power, a point the
prime minister, Scott Morrison, made on Wednesday.

"In the current planning year, NSW had requested more than 5000
additional migrants into NSW, well I'll take it from those comments by
Gladys that she would like now those assigned to states like South
Australia or other places, and we can do that," Morrison said on
Wednesday.

"But our current permanent immigration levels are running just a
little over 160,000 - that was the level of permanent immigration that
was running at the time of the conclusion of the Howard government,
and so those levels have been pretty consistent for some time, they
used to be a bit higher than that in terms of what the permanent
intake had been a few years ago and that's come down somewhat over the
last year or so and I expect it to sort of remain at about these
levels."

Similarly the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, suggested issues of
perceived overcrowding in Sydney related to infrastructure.

"What I would say to Gladys Berejiklian is we stand ready to work with
you to invest in the necessary infrastructure to ensure that this
great state of NSW has the right services and the right infrastructure
to support the population that it has," Frydenberg told reporters in
Sydney.

"The number of permanent visas have come down quite significantly, we
are a very proud migrant nation."

According to government statistics permanent migration to Australia
almost doubled during the Howard era, from 85,802 in 1996-97 to
161,217 in 2006-07. In 2016-17 the permanent migrant intake was
183,608, mostly via skilled visas.

But that figure was set to fall to about 160,000 in 2017-18 because of
changes to the visa migration program made by Peter Dutton in 2015.

In 2016-17 net overseas migration to NSW was 104,480, up from 73,570 in 2006-07.

But that growth has been driven in large part by the increased
reliance by universities on revenue from international students and by
tourists and skilled workers.

In 2016-17 those three categories accounted for 59% of temporary visa
holders in NSW. Since 2006-07 there has been a 92% increase in the
number of people in NSW on international student visas.

Universities Australia chief executive Catriona Jackson urged
policymakers "to tread carefully to ensure any policy change does not
damage Australia's successful international education sector which is
a major income-earner for our economy.

"International education is the second biggest export in NSW,
injecting $11.2bn into the NSW economy each year and supporting more
than 46,000 jobs. "It's a hugely important income earner - bigger than
tourism - and international students also make a huge cultural and
social contribution to the state and Australia."

In a statement Berejiklian confirmed that the government wanted to
halve net overseas migration, but her office did not specify where
they wanted to see the cuts come from.

The premier instead wants the level of migration to be considered at a
COAG meeting.

The comments come during a difficult period for the premier and the
Liberal government in NSW.

The week has been dominated by negative headlines and protests against
her support for a controversial advertisement for a horse race on the
Sydney Opera House, and recent polling suggests the Labor opposition
is now neck-and-neck with the government.

Berejiklian was critical of Labor leader Luke Foley earlier this year
after he used the term "white flight" to describe the shifting
demographics in western Sydney during an interview.

At the time she described the comments as "deeply divisive, dangerous
and nasty".

But on Wednesday Berejiklian said Sydney had been forced to "wear the
pain" of increased migration, blaming previous infrastructure spending
in Sydney for not keeping pace with population growth.

"My government has been playing catch-ups building the schools,
hospitals, roads and transport links our state needs to deal with our
growing population after years of do-nothing Labor governments," she
said.

"But it's becoming increasingly clear that the current growing rate of
immigration to our state needs to be ­addressed. This is an
opportunity for a new dawn on this important issue."

The Coalition has been in government in NSW since April 2011.