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Armenian Snap Election To See Pashinyan Government Re-Elected
The upcoming snap parliamentary election in Armenia is likely to result in the re-election of the current interim government under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, which has been in place since May. This will be positive for the domestic political and economic reform outlook, although we see little change in foreign policy.
Key View The upcoming snap parliamentary election in Armenia is likely to result in the re-election of the current interim government under Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which has been in place since May.This will be positive for the domestic political and economic reform outlook, although we see little change in foreign policy. Although the exact date has yet to be confirmed at the time of writing, snap parliamentary elections are due to be held in Armenia at some point over the coming months. This follows the resignation in October 2018 of the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his interim government, which resulted in parliament being dissolved and early elections being called. Under the Armenian Constitution, snap elections can be called only if the parliament fails to replace him or her with someone else within two weeks of the initial vote. Under the constitution, new elections then shall be held no earlier than 30 days from this point and no later than 45 days – which would fall around the middle of December.
The upcoming snap election comes at a time of significant political change in Armenia. In April 2018, the then Prime Minister, Serzh Sargsyan, and his government stepped down following two weeks of mass protests across Armenia demanding his resignation, with the protest becoming know as the 'Velvet Revolution' after those in Czechoslovakia in 1989. The protests culminated with Pashinyan, the leader of the 'Civil Contract' party, becoming prime minister in May 2018, with his stated aim of calling early elections before the scheduled 2022 date as soon as was practical.As it stands, the Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) – which was previously in government before the protests and has dominated the political landscape in Armenia since independence in 1991 – currently holds the largest number of seats in the legislature, the National Assembly. As a result, we have previously taken a cautious line with our outlook for democratic reforms in Armenia in the wake of the protests. So long as the HHK retains a sizeable number of seats in parliament, its cooperation is necessary for any major moves the government wishes to make and it will still be able to attempt to block major pieces of legislation. Although it seems that the HHK has failed in its attempts to prevent snap elections from being held, they are still preventing any changes to the electoral system, which favour the HKK. Specifically, the HKK recently blocked the current governments' proposed legislation which would, among other things, change the existing legal mechanism for distributing seats in the National Assembly. While ostensibly claiming that the legislation was submitted to parliament on very short notice and that lawmakers did not have enough time to study it before voting, it is more likely an attempt by the HKK to improve their chances at the upcoming election.Therefore, the outcome of the election will be critical in deciding the outlook for democratic and economic reforms in Armenia over the coming years. If Pashinian is able to achieve a majority in the National Assembly following snap elections, made up of his own party and other parties in the 'My Step' alliance, this would likely lead to an improved outlook for reforms. Although opinion polls are fairly irregular in Armenia, making the outcome hard to predict, the result of the recent municipal elections held in the capital, Yerevan, on September 24 could be seen as a harbinger of the upcoming general election. Pashinyan's 'My Step' alliance gained 81% of the vote, placing its candidate into the mayor's office. Given that over 40% of the Armenian population lives in Yerevan, this result would suggest that Pashinyan and his current alliance is set to remain in government following the upcoming election, with a majority in parliament also looking likely. Foreign Policy To Remain Unchanged While we believe that a future Pashinyan government would be positive for the Armenia's domestic reform outlook, we see little change in foreign policy under any scenario following the upcoming general election. Specifically, there will be negligible changes to relations between Yerevan and Moscow, with the former remaining firmly within the latter's sphere of influence. In Armenia, a strong degree of continuity based on an alliance with Russia is a long-established policy that would be very difficult to reverse by a single government. Armenia is heavy reliant on Russia in both the military and economic spheres. Indeed, from the outset Pashinyan has made every effort to reassure Moscow that the revolution did not have any 'geopolitical context'. Furthermore, there are signs that the new government is taking even more steps than the previous one to accommodate Moscow's interests. For instance, it was recently announced that Armenia and Russia will implement a joint humanitarian program in Syria.