by Turan analytical service
The geography of the visit to countries closely adjacent to the south with Iran may indicate that the US wants to eliminate any excesses for these states in the process of tightening the blockade of Iran – imposing an embargo on the sale of Iranian oil, disconnecting Iran from the SWIFT payment system, etc. That is, the United States may insist on maximizing the level of contacts with Iran in exchange for preferences and security guarantees for countries that are part of the Bolton visit route.
Moscow
Bolton"s visit to Moscow showed that the United States does not intend to confront Russia in the near future. This became known from his statements on the completion of meetings with the top leadership of the Russian Federation. Advisor to Trump informed journalists that the United States does not intend to adopt new sanctions against Russia, positively assess the role of Russia in resolving the Syrian crisis. As a sweet pill, Bolton presented information about the upcoming informal meeting of Tram-Putin in Paris on November 11 and the holding of the US-Russian Business Council in the first quarter of 2019. Formally, the initiative of such a meeting was put forward by Putin, accepting Bolton, but the latter"s prompt response indicated that the parties had already agreed on this issue in advance. As expected, the Russian side was informed about the US position on Iran, which the US considers a threat in the field of nuclear security and the fight against terrorism. According to the adviser to the American president, it also became known that withdrawal from the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (SPRM) is related to the fact that it does not meet the requirements of today's realities and is outdated in terms of the formation of new owners and developers of medium-range missiles and more the face of China, Korea and so on. Thus, he made it clear further actions of the United States in the missile area after leaving the agreement will be directed against China.
So, as can be seen from the above information, the United States and Russia have mutual understanding and coincidence of interests in the matter of restructuring the system of relations in the Middle East, particularly in Iran, regarding limiting the growing missile power of China and other countries, as well as the development of the pro-Western vector of the CIS, including Russia.
Baku
The information for journalists from Bolton following a meeting with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, also confirms that the Iranian problem was fundamental on the agenda. The topics of the talks were: regional problems, the Karabakh conflict, US efforts to prevent Iran"s support for terrorism and the development of nuclear weapons. Economic projects were also affected, in particular, the Southern Gas Corridor, Bolton said.
He noted that Washington is counting on active cooperation on these and other issues, including participation in counter-terrorist measures and the fight against drug trafficking, trafficking and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
The recognition of Bolton that he did not come with any proposals on Karabakh and did not raise the issue of resuming the activities of Radio Freedom in Baku demonstrated the correctness of the experts' conclusions that the Iranian issue would be the main issue in Bourton"s portfolio.
The Iranian theme for Baku included two components:
1. How to reduce the negative impact of sanctions against Iran on Azerbaijan in economic terms,
2. How to protect Azerbaijan from the expected cataclysm in Iran.
We have discussed these issues with President Aliyev and the foreign minister. Our goal is to ensure maximum application of sanctions against Iran, and at the same time, not to cause unnecessary harm to our friends, and Azerbaijan is in this row, Bolton said in an interview with Turan. In this sense, the United States could offer a wide and deep dialogue with Azerbaijan, which has not yet been achieved, despite repeated attempts.
Bolton discussed with Aliyev issues of violations of human rights and democracy: "These issues are important for the United States and there was a very productive dialogue with President Aliyev and I think there are many areas where Azerbaijan and the United States can cooperate and learn from each other."
Until now, Baku feared the realization of American proposals in the field of human rights, civil society and democratic governance. It seems that, as before, Aliyev did not refuse such a dialogue, but this does not mean that another initiative will not remain just an agreement of intent.
Yerevan
In the capital of Armenia, Bolton was also welcomed as high American representatives after the Rose Revolution in Georgia. Armenia, inspired by the democratic changes of the past few months, is now more confident in looking at the West. The US-Armenian dialogue showed that the parties are preparing for a more open rapprochement and for a change of the Russian vector to the American one. Bolton"s public offer at a meeting with the leader of the Armenian revolution Nikol Pashinyan to buy American weapons instead of Russian ones cannot be called accidental. This is too strong a move that speaks of the determination and guarantees of the United States to support the democratic process in Armenia, which is expected to become irreversible after the parliamentary elections in December of this year.
The parties also exchanged views on Iranian topics. From the revelation of Bolton it is clear that the security of Armenia in the sphere of increasing sanctions against Iran is on the agenda. He stressed that the border with Iran "will become an important issue, because, as I explained to the Prime Minister, we want to put maximum pressure on Iran, because he has not yet abandoned the goal of creating nuclear weapons."
Tbilisi
The final Bolton route closes in Tbilisi. In fact, he is on duty, as a week ago Bolton received Georgian Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze in Washington. The latter said at the end of the meeting that both the challenges facing Georgia and the role of the United States with a view to overcoming them jointly were discussed. According to the press service of the Prime Minister of Georgia, attention was focused on cooperation in the field of defense and security.
The situation in the region, economic issues were also considered. He added that the Georgian government "has a definite plan in the economic direction" with which Bolton was acquainted. Following the meeting, Bolton wrote in his microblog on Twitter that, at a meeting with the Prime Minister of Georgia, he confirmed solidarity between Georgia and the United States.
"A prosperous and democratic Georgia is a strong example in the region," said John Bolton. To this we can add – and lighthouse for the advancement of Armenia and Azerbaijan in the direction of the civilized democratic world.