The spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that the arms race must be prevented in the region, commenting on the sale of weapons to Azerbaijan, noting that while this is business for one country, it is a deadly instrument for our people. As is known, Russia described the sale of ammunition to Azerbaijan as business, in answer to the concerns of the Armenian side, and recently the president of Belarus Lukashenko has stated that this is business, and if the Armenians agree, he is ready to sell weapons to Armenians. Lukashenko said they he had proposed by Armenia refused, saying that it has Iskander rockets.

The comment of the spokesperson for the Armenian ministry of foreign affairs seems to be clear but the problem needs clarification. In particular, is this the official position of Yerevan to stop the race of ammunition in the region?

The point is that the representatives of the Armenian government expressed this thought two years ago, after the April war. Later the deputy foreign minister of Armenia Shavarsh Kocharyan spoke about it in one of his interviews with the European media.

Kocharyan said it is worth discussing the issue of total ban on weapons to the sides of the conflict. At the same time, he said it was his personal opinion. In other words, this was not a formal point of the policy of Yerevan.

It was a little strange, as well as it was strange that different officials in Yerevan stated that Azerbaijan is a terrorist state while the foreign minister and president of Armenia went on to discuss something with a terrorist state.

The ammunition race in the region intensified after Azerbaijan got the big chance provided by oil dollars. Baku started spending billions on buying ammunition. To say that Azerbaijan was getting armed only against Artsakh and Armenia to resolve the problems with weapons would be only one aspect of the issue.

No doubt Baku had such a purpose or is looking at this purpose. At the same time, Azerbaijan realizes that even if there is immense ammunition, obtaining the geopolitical right to use it will be essential. And here the problems become more deep and diverse. Azerbaijan achieved some success ahead of the April war in 2016 but, obviously, the success was not complete, and it was due to this that Azerbaijan did not go for putting to use its huge ammunition advantage.

The problem is not that Aliyev was stopped by deaths. Aliyev would have never stopped because of deaths. Aliyev did not go for larger scales because he did not have the geopolitical approval for that, he still does not have and most probably will not have in the nearest future. The reasons are many. Aliyev got the right to a blitzkrieg with Russia’s support, being well-aware that this agreement contains a bilateral “hidden intention” to let each other down. At the end of the day, both were “let down” by the Armenian army which crushed the hopes that the political wing of the ruling elite or rather wings, the governmental and the so-called non-governmental, had generated through its political and diplomatic shortcomings.

At the same time, the other two co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, especially Washington, encouraged Azerbaijan and Russia to jump the gun in order to discharge the regional situation.

Had Armenia had a legitimate government, after the April war the Armenian side would use the Azerbaijani-Russian mistake to gain substantial political-military positions.

Serzh SArgsyan did some things but as long and as much as his legitimacy allowed, as well as the issue of retention of power in 2011-2018. There was a possibility for more but there was not the essential for this, a great public legitimacy.

At the same time, at a quite crucial moment the police station standoff occurred further deepening the issue of legitimacy.

These circumstances led to the freezing of the situation, and it is not accidental that Baku was able to stop the series of meetings after Saint Petersburg, and the next one took place only 18 months later in Geneva where already the agenda of Vienna and Saint Petersburg were not mentioned.

The issue of ban on the race of weapons is perhaps one that could have been promoted after the April war. It is not too late. After all, this issue does not only worry or threaten Armenia and Artsakh. Azerbaijan’s spending of billions have other, maybe no less important purposes. Aliyev is trying to boost its potential to that of a regional power, on the one hand, imposing a pace of race that is beyond the ability of Yerevan, on the other hand, talking to the centers of power from a different angle.

Yerevan has potential interlocutors and has a possibility and goal to start a process of unfreezing the situation.