Supporters of Samvel Babayan [commander of the Nagorno-Karabakh army until 1999] supporters have announced collection of signatures in support of a referendum, which will enable the former defence minister of [Azerbaijan's breakaway] Nagorno-Karabakh to run in the presidential election. Local residents made diametrically opposed assessments of Babayan's presidential plans.

As reported by the Kavkazsky Uzel [website], Samvel Babayan held a meeting with his supporters in [Nagorno-Karabakh capital] Stepanakert [Xankandi] on 10 July 2018, saying that he was not striving for some high-ranking post or power. At the meeting, which according to the organisers' estimates, was attended by more than 1,000 people, the politician voiced his plan for opening an office in Stepanakert. [For reference, on 28 November 2017, on charges of importing an air-defence system to Armenia, the court of first instance sentenced Babayan to six years of imprisonment. The opposition and Babayan proper considered the arrest as politically motivated. On 15 July, the court of appeals ruled that the case be remitted for a new investigation and Babayan be released from custody. The decision was taken against the background of protest rallies staged by his supporters.]

In February 2019, former Nagorno-Karabakh defence minister Samvel Babayan made a statement saying that he was going to put forward his candidacy for the post of president of Nagorno-Karabakh. In Nagorno-Karabakh, the presidential and parliamentary elections are going to be held in spring 2020. By now, only two people have voiced their intention to run in the election: Babayan and Arayik Harutyunyan, the adviser to the incumbent Nagorno-Karabakh president, Kavkazsky Uzel reported.

On 5 February, Samvel Babayan made a statement on his plan to run in the presidential election. Babayan emphasised that before being nominated, a candidate for the post of president of Nagorno-Karabakh was obliged to have lived in the republic for the preceding 10 years; however, the collection of signatures of the required number of voters of Karabakh would allow him to compete for the presidential post. "Signatures will by all means be collected. I will collect a sufficient number of signatures and even twice the number needed to prove that first, people want me to return and second, they want to take a step," Radio Azatutyun [Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe's Armenian service] quoted Babayan as saying.

Samvel Babayan specified that collection of signatures would begin in March 2019. The politician said that he had no internal desire to run for presidency; however, his numerous supporters were "forcing" him to run in the election. "People – individuals, supporters, those voicing the desire, and those who want me to return [….] [Square brackets as published] This is a referendum. We make no secret of this," the Aysor.am edition reported on 5 February, quoting Babayan.

Babayan's team beginning collection of signatures on 10 March

On 10 March, Samvel Babayan's supporters are going to open an office in Stepanakert. On the same day, they are beginning to collect signatures in favour of his running in the presidential election, a member of the chamber of lawyers of Nagorno-Karabakh and veteran of the Karabakh war, Zhanna Arzymanyan, reported.

Commenting on the former defence minister's decision to run in the presidential election, she used the words by Babayan proper: "Given the exiting political, social, socioeconomic and military situation in Artsakh [Armenian name of Nagorno-Karabakh], we are facing the risk of losing our motherland".

"Apart from this, we adopt thousands of laws. People want Babayan to return to Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh). I am sure that there are people, who will publicly voice their desire to show support for Babayan," the former supporter of the commander of the Nagorno-Karabakh army told Kavkazsky Uzel.

Asked whether Samvel Babayan was ready to take upon himself the role of the opposition leader, Arzumanyan again responded using his [Babayan's] words: "We have come to unite society, rather than to break it apart. It is an ideological objective to be in the opposition. When we secure changes to the constitution and when we present our political programme, only then will it become clear, whether we will stand as the opposition or not," she said quoting Babayan.

Zhanna Arzumanyan added that possible obstacles on the part of the republic's authorities did not disturb Samvel Babayan and his supporters. "It does not matter how the Artsakh authorities will behave. Whatever has been decided has to be implemented," she said.

Babayan needs 10,500 signatures

The procedure of nominating a candidate for the post of president of Nagorno-Karabakh is stipulated by the constitution and the electoral code of the republic, a representative of the Nagorno-Karabakh justice ministry told KavkazskyUzel.

Samvel Babayan declared his intention to hold a referendum in order to bypass the restrictions set for those running in the presidential elections. Article 48 of the constitution stipulates concrete procedures of nominating a candidate and Article 162 stipulates the procedure of holding a referendum, a representative of the central electoral commission [CEC] told KavkazskyUzel.

According to Article 48 of the constitution of Nagorno-Karabakh, those who are not under 35, have had only Karabakh citizenship over the period of 10 years, have permanently lived in Nagorno-Karabakh, and enjoy the right to vote can become president of the republic. Those recognised as legally incapable and those serving sentences for serious crimes are deprived of the right to vote. Those convicted for other crimes and serving sentences are also deprived of the right to be elected.

Article 162 of the constitution of Nagorno-Karabakh points out that changes to the main law of the republic can be introduced only though a referendum. "No less than one-third of the overall number of deputies, president of the republic or no less than 10 per cent of the citizens having the right to vote have the right to initiate the adoption of changes to the constitution […] [Square brackets as published] Referendums are scheduled under the resolution adopted by no less than two-thirds of votes of the overall number of deputies of the national assembly," the article says.

To run in the presidential election, Samvel Babayan will have to secure changes to the constitution, a lawyer from Stepanakert, Monte Madoyan, said, commenting on the former defence minister's statement. According to Madoyan's assessment, it "will not be easy" for Babayan to do so.

"According to the figures from the republic's CEC, in 2017, the number of voters in Nagorno-Karabakh amounted to 103,818. There are 33 deputies in the national assembly. Samvel Babayan will need no fewer than 10,381 voter signatures to submit draft amendments to parliament, two-thirds of deputies to put the draft to a referendum, and of course, a majority the citizens being in favour of constitutional changes," the lawyer told KavkazskyUzel.

Osipyan: Situation in Nagorno-Karabakh is revolutionary.

Based on his vision of the situation in summer 2018, Babayan spoke of having no ambitions to come to power, Karabakh public figure and political analyst Artur Osipyan noted.

"At present, the situation is different. According to my observation, being a military figure, Samvel Babayan is straightforward: In his statements, he does not seek any political bypasses. He always says what he thinks and what he considers as correct. By now, there is no official election race in Karabakh. A whole year is ahead. This is quite a long period. However, he has many merits and he has the right to voice his intention to become a presidential candidate," Osipyan told KavkazskyUzel.

By now, it is difficult to assess Babayan's chances of coming to power: The former defence minister enjoys some support on the population's part. However, "everything depends of his further steps: What programme he will present and how he will establish contacts with the population," the pundit explained. "None of the present political forces in Artsakh will show support for Babayan. His only hope is people and the work of his team," Osipyan emphasised.

Samvel Babayan's political activeness might bring significant changes in Nagorno-Karabakh's life, making a noticeable impact on the process of settling the conflict, the pundit continued. The incumbent authorities of the republic can create serious obstacles to his return to politics: The incumbent Nagorno-Karabakh leadership comprises former Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan's placemen, who have become disoriented after the change of power in Armenia, he said.

"Our authorities do not know how to behave and how to run the country without Sargsyan. The authorities might try to use their old methods: Putting pressure on Babayan and his supporters through power-wielding structure and using administrative resources. However, in the present situation, methods of the kind might have a negative impact on the authorities' image," Osipyan said.

According to pundits, Babayan's return to politics is one of the results of the Velvet Revolution in Armenia. "At present, the Karabakh authorities are pursuing the only aim: To [bring] one of their team-mates to the presidential post to make sure that later, he ensures their security, preserving the property, which was unlawfully accumulated, and letting many other acts go unpunished," he said.

The pundit did not rule out that ahead of the election, which is planned for 2020, mass protest rallies would begin in Nagorno-Karabakh: "At present, the situation in Artsakh is revolutionary. All it needs is just an initiative on the part of some force. It is not ruled out that Samvel Babayan will become such a force or perhaps, other people will appear. People unambiguously want changes and transformations in every area of life. The main aim is to change the system and approaches, rather than power," Artur Osipyan said.

Serzh Sargsyan's fall generated in Nagorno-Karabakh demand for a resolute leader

The Velvet Revolution in Armenia placed the Nagorno-Karabakh leadership in a difficult situation, as with all respects, the Karabakh elite was oriented on the former leadership of the country led by Serzh Sargsyan, a Karabakh-based pundit, sociologist and teacher at Artsakh State University, Davit Gharabekyan confirmed.

According to Gharabekyan, given the conditions, a demand has been generated for "the people, who can take responsibility for the situation in the country". It is this demand that Samvel Babayan's decision to struggle for the presidential post is linked to.

"In the past, Babayan's activities were perceived ambiguously. There were negative and positive assessments. However, in extreme situations, a demand is created in the population for the leaders capable of making decisions under pressure even if this is achieved by means of quite tough [measures] [Square brackets as published]," Gharabekyan told Kavkazsky Uzel.

The pundit described the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh as alarming. "If the country has no civil society and the supremacy of law and if those, who are capable of governing without distributing property 'between power players', come to power, collapse is inevitable in the country. At present, Nagorno-Karabakh is in limbo. People have no certainty about their future. They want someone to curb the high-handed officials," he explained.

However, Gharabekyan emphasised that it was too early to contrapose Babayan to the existing system: Most of those representing the Karabakh elite began their careers in the 1990s, when Babayan was in power.

"I do not rule out that the incumbent Karabakh authorities are ready to have [such] [Square brackets as published] a charismatic opponent, who used to be an insider, but has now become an outsider. It is more possible to reach agreement with him than with someone, who does not depend on anyone outside the system and can destroy everything that power rests on. Perhaps, the authorities [are considering these] [Square brackets as published] options. The question is what people want," the analysts explained.

By now, Samvel Babayan has only one competitor: Arayik Harutyunyan, who positions himself as a reformer; "Here, we have a limited choice: Whether we want to preserve the old system in the shape of Harutyunyan or return a tough power system [in the shape of Babayan] [Square brackets as published]," Gharabekyan said. Yerevan's position will also be significant: The candidate that will prove to be preferable for the Armenian leadership will increase his chances of victory, the pundit added.

Residents of Stepanakert spoke about their attitude to Babayan

Of seven residents of Stepanakert inetrviewed by Kavkazsky Uzel, only four met Babayan's presidential ambitions with approval or interest. The private opinions of residents of Nagorno-Karabakh, which follow below, do not represent a representative survey.

A daughter of a soldier killed in the Karabakh war, Kristina Babayan, voiced readiness to put her signature in Samvel Babayan's favour. According to the young woman, "everyone has the right to a chance".

"I will put my signature, but when the time of elections comes, I will take a decision based on Babayan's election programme. I think that he has the right to run in the election and that people should have an opportunity to make a choice. However, there is one thing I can say for sure: He is the only leader, who liberated territories and who knows that in the Karabakh issue, Armenian side's concessions are unacceptable," Kristina told Kavkazsky Uzel.

A resident of Stepanakert, Artur Grigoryan, is also ready to show support for the referendum announced by Samvel Babayan.

"I remember the times, when he was a commander and people feared him. However, these were post-war years, when his methods were justified. I personally served [in the army] at that time. Perhaps, the time has come, when his harshness and principled position are again required. However, my signature does not imply that I am going to vote for him in the election: Everything will depend on what he will tell people during the election campaign," the man told Kavkazsky Uzel.

A local resident, Anna Gabriyelyan, said: "Babayn is a hero of Artsakh and his merits are not questioned: "My parents and my relations, who fought in the Karabakh war, used to tell me about Samvel Babayan. For me, he is a real hero. People like him should lead the country," the girl told Kavkazsky Uzel.

Susanna Khachatryan, who is a widow of a soldier killed in the war, met Samvel Babayan's plans with enthusiasm. The woman is sure that he will manage to change people's life, particularly that of the families of war veterans and the killed soldiers, for the better. "I will put my signature by all means to help Babayan run in the election. I will be his passionate supporter, too. He will bring social justice to the country," she said to Kavkazsky Uzel.

A resident of Stepanakert, Ani Baghdasaryan, flatly refused to show support for Samvel Babayan. According to the woman, her family suffered during Babayan's being in power.

"Many families suffered from his tough methods. Men in my family had to leave the country, because Babayan's system prevented [them] [Square brackets as published] from all their undertakings. Some people here are looking forwards to his coming. These are mainly those, who were close to him, as well as his relations. I do not want those times to come back," the girl told Kavkazsky Uzel.

A mother of two children, Mariam Grigoryan, also opposes Babayan's return to politics. "People here are shouting that he is a hero, who won the war and created the army. No-one is diminishing his merits, but was he alone? How about the heroes, who died, or those, who stayed alive, but choose to keep silent, because they have no political ambitions? I think that Babayan's time has passed. I do not want a revolution or turbulences to take place in the country. Therefore, I am not going to put my signature. I am not going to vote for him," she said.

A resident of Stepanakert, Vrezh Harutyunyan, also thinks that "the time of the new generation has come". "I do not want to see old and incumbent leaders, I think that they all should quit of their own accord. Young and creative people, who are not aware of the Soviet time and corruption, should run the country. I am going to wait for a candidate of the kind," the young man told Kavkazsky Uzel.