GUAM highlights
At a concrete stage, GUAM also considered the possibility to form its own peacekeeping battalion. However, as former Moldovan President [Vladimir] Voronin put it, he blocked the initiative. For the last time, the GUAM summit was held in Kiev in 2017. No information has been reported about discussions on military issues. The only information reported is about discussions on peaceful issues: Full-scale organisation of an agreement on free trade, a transport corridor within the GUAM frameworks, and so forth.
As you can see, Moldova is in no hurry to scale up military cooperation within the GUAM frameworks. As for Ukraine, for obvious reasons, it cannot act as a sponsor of the military cooperation with remaining Georgia and Azerbaijan. Against this background, the latter are actively seeking ways of military alliance with Turkey.
Tripartite ministerial format created
In May 2017, Georgian expert in security issues Vakhtang Maisaia said in his interview to radio Sputnik that forming an alliance between Georgia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan on the basis of a tripartite ministerial was not ruled out and that the given format was oriented on ensuring energy security and other issues of military and economic character. Several days prior to this, the fifth tripartite ministerial was held in Batumi at the level of Georgian, Turkish, and Azerbaijani defence ministers. After the meeting, Georgian Defence Minister Levan Izoria, his Turkish counterpart Fikri Isik and Azerbaijani Defence minister Zakir Hasanov signed a joint statement, which said that the sides were going to continue participating in safeguarding peace and stability at the regional and international levels. In the same year, heads of the general staffs of the armed forces of Georgia, Turkey, and Azerbaijan got together in Tbilisi within the frameworks of the same format.
On 31 March 2018, the sixth meeting between the defence ministers of these countries was held in the Turkish city of Giresun. On the same occasion, it was said that relations between Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan had intensified in the defence sphere since 2012, when a foundation was laid for a ministerial in a tripartite format at the level of the heads of the defence agencies.
In November 2018 too, Azerbaijani Defence Minister Col-Gen Zakir Hasanov, Turkish Army Chief of General Staff Yasar Guler and Georgian Armed Forces Chief of Staff Maj-Gen Vladimer Chachibaia held the next meeting in Baku.
After the meeting, Hasanov said that the meeting was organised at the instruction of the leaders of the three fraternal countries: "At the meeting, we discussed the military and political situation in the region. This was aimed to sustain the strategic projects of the three fraternal countries, which are being implemented in the region, as well as to maintain peace and stability."
As he put it, at the meeting, they discussed the work, which had been carried out by the working group over the past several years. Apart from this, they also approved the working plan for 2019.
As Hasanov put it, at the tripartite meeting, they once again confirmed their adherence to the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the states. "At the meeting, a decision was taken to increase cooperation in the military, military and educational, and military and medical spheres," [he said].
Ministerials have become traditional and they are held in turns in each of the three countries. The issues, which are predominantly discussed there, are enhancing cooperation in the military sphere between the three countries and ensuring stability and security in the region.
We can see that there are quite intensive contacts between the defence agencies of the three countries. Needless to say that Turkey is going to play the leading role in the alliance. Georgian expert Irakli Japaridze holds the same opinion. In one of his articles, he wrote: "Secretly or explicitly, Turkey is sure to preserve its leading and unequal role in the coalition, as it outstrips our Georgia and Azerbaijan in economic, military, and political terms, making no secret of its expansionistic ambitions, at the same time."
Georgia's alliance with Azerbaijan, Turkey to lead to crisis in relations with Armenia
According to a number of serious Georgian experts, including Irakli Japaridze, the strengthening of the military alliance between Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey is sure to lead to a crisis in relations between Georgia and Armenia. "If Ankara is ready to show support for Baku in the conflict over [Azerbaijan's breakaway Nagorno-]Karabakh, Georgia, which has close economic contacts with Armenia, is not year ready to sacrifice this to ensuring the integrity of the tripartite format," the pundit is certain.
He also warned that "if military coalition between Georgia and Turkey becomes stronger, the danger of Georgia-based Kurds' and Yezidis' engagement in 'retaliatory acts' on our territory, i.e. Georgian territory, will increase.
Strengthening of alliance 'direct threat' to Armenia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia
There arises a question: What do the three countries, which often fought against each other in the distant past, have in common?
Each of them wants to retain or return the territories, which they got hold of by foul means in the distant past. However, as we can see from the aforementioned quotation from Hasanov, they are veiling their predatory ambitions with the words such as "adherence to territorial integrity", "sovereign states", and so forth.
It is clear that this is only a euphemism for the seizure of [Georgia's breakaway] South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh and [Georgia's other breakaway region of] Abkhazia. However, Armenia is going to defend Nagorno-Karabakh. To seize Nagorno-Karabakh, one has to smash up Armenia. Therefore, it is not difficult to realise that the strengthening of the alliance between Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey and the emergence of a military and political constituent as a counter to the [Russian-led] CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organisation], which Armenia is a member of, is a direct threat to Armenia, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.