The roots of Henrikh Mkhitaryan's probable absence from the Europa League final

at the end of this month lie in a vicious ethnic war, fought more than a quarter of a century ago.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, chunks of it made bids to break away from larger territories.

At least 30,000 people died in Nagorno-Karabakh between 1991 and 1994 when the mountainous Armenian-dominated region seceded from Azerbaijan and proclaimed an independent republic.

The conflict has flared up occasionally ever since. In 2016, shells flew across the border into the tiny hamlet of Talish in northeast Nagorno-Karabakh, ploughing into homes, the wall of a kindergarten and the roof of the village administration.

An Azerbaijani ground incursion followed and the bodies of an Armenian couple in their late 60s and the man's 92-year-old mother were later found in their home. They had been shot dead and allegedly had their ears sliced off.

The facts of the conflict – other atrocities are claimed on both sides – and the control of territory remain questions of bitter dispute between Baku and Yerevan.

The region's independence has not been recognised by a single country, and no lasting settlement was ever reached.

Recently, there have been encouraging signs. Since the former journalist, Nikol Pashinyan, became prime minister of Armenia last year, he has met President Aliyev of Azerbaijan four times, and discussed moves to peace. Ceasefire violations have decreased.

Yet, fears of a random act of violence would likely remain if the Armenian Mkhitaryan was to go to Baku, where the Europa League final between Arsenal and Chelsea is to be played.

One example of the passions the conflict can provoke was the murder in 2004 of Gurgen Margaryan in Budapest. The Armenian army lieutenant was asleep in a dormitory when Ramil Safarov, an Azerbaijani officer, broke in and killed him with an axe.

Both men had been attending English-language courses in Hungary organised by Nato's Partnership for Peace programme. Under interrogation, Safarov said Margaryan had insulted him, and thoughts of the Nagorno-Karabakh war had spurred him on. "I regret that I hadn't killed any Armenian before this," he said.

After serving eight years in prison in Hungary, Safarov was transferred to Baku to serve out his life sentence, only to be immediately pardoned by President Aliyev, and promoted.

When Mkhitaryan, 30, did not travel to Baku for a match with Qarabag in October, the Azerbaijani team's coach, Gurban Gurbanov, said Arsenal had "tried to save" the player and were "afraid" of him appearing in front of a 68,000-capacity crowd at the city's Olympic Stadium.

Azerbaijan's foreign ministry indicated last week that

Mikhitaryan would get a visa for the final

, saying other Armenian sportsmen had taken part in events there, and "sports and politics are separate".

But the midfielder has never played in the country, also missing a fixture in Azerbaijan when he was at Borussia Dortmund, and it will be no surprise if he is left out now.