[Armenian News note: the below is translated from Russian]
Russian political commentators have warned about a possible escalation of the Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan following the latter's recent advancement in neutral area near its western border, the Moscow-based news and analysis website Kavkazsky Uzel reported on 17 August.
The website said that the several analysts that it interviewed said Azerbaijan's recent "manoeuvres" near its Qazax District aimed to prompt Yerevan to resume and intensify peace talks to resolve the conflict over Azerbaijan's Armenian-held breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Azerbaijan's State Border Service (SBS) had reported that the country's border troops recently captured new tactical and strategic positions in Qazax despite "constant shelling" by Armenia, Haqqin.az news and analysis website said. It said that a senior SBS official, Maj-Gen Elcin Ibrahimov, had confirmed the report and that he said that the new positions allowed Azerbaijan to be in "better control" of Armenian army positions and roads leading to those Armenian positions. Haqqin.az said Ibrahimov did not disclose all details. It cited unattributed reports as saying that Azerbaijani border troops had advanced toward the mountain Babakar and had also gained an opportunity to control main Armenian thoroughfares in that area.
Azeri president's approval ratings involved
Kavkazsky Uzel cited commentator Pavel Felgengauer as saying that the situation was a dangerous one. Although the conflict is not in an active phase, it is a simmering one, he said, and military action is gradually spreading to other areas. He said a "northward" escalation of the conflict should be expected in the near future but suggested that "Russia is currently keeping the conflict in line".
The website went on to cite the pundit as saying that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev was "skilfully using the patriotic sentiment of Azerbaijanis and demonstrating military successes". "Over the years of the confrontation, the sides have accumulated mutual hatred. However, it is especially desperate in Azerbaijan," Felgengauer said.
He said Aliyev's approval ratings benefited from any successes in the confrontation with Armenia and that "once they start falling, media release reports about (the president's) military successes". Therefore, Felgengauer said, if problems start for Aliyev, one should immediately expect a flare-up at the front line. "However," he added, "Aliyev himself does not want a big war".
Azerbaijan seeks to make Armenia resume peace talks
The website went on to cite Russian military expert Alexander Perendzhiyev as saying that Qazax District was far away from Nagorno Karabakh – the conflict zone, and, therefore, far away from actual military action.
He said Azerbaijan's manoeuvres at the border aimed to stage a "moderate provocation" to prompt Yerevan to resume peace talks. "By staging a threat where there is no territorial dispute, Azerbaijan seeks to find a way to put pressure on Armenia to make it go for concessions," he said. He said Yerevan was not going to cede Nagorno-Karabakh and would not go for concessions. Therefore, Baku shows that if Armenians can put Azerbaijan lands under their control, then Azerbaijanis are capable of seizing other lands, ones that are so far neutral and have nothing to do with the Karabakh conflict, he said. "That is a provocation that aims to intensify the talks," he said.
Perendzhiyev went on to say that in response to Azerbaijan's actions, Armenia would turn to the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation and Russia would have to react. However, he said, neither of the sides will get Russia's backing. "The incident will trigger tension again but will unlikely result in a major flare-up," he said.
He added that Azerbaijan's actions were politically-motivated with Aliyev seeking to demonstrate "successes, even if small ones" to unite society and "silence his critics".
The Baku-based news and analysis website Haqqin.az, carried a summary of the Kavkazsky Uzel report. It commented that Perendzhiyev "does not seem to know that the Armenian army continues to occupy Azerbaijani lands in the area [Qazax] as well, as six villages of Qazax District are still under occupation".
The Kavkazsky Uzel report also cited military commentator Alexander Golts as saying that "there are serious fears" that the latest advancement of Azerbaijani border troops might trigger a serious escalation of the conflict.