Wednesday,
IMF Sees Coronavirus-Driven GDP Drop In Armenia
Armenia -- Workers at a newly opened diamond processing plant in Abovian,
December 2, 2019.
Armenia’s GDP is on course to shrink by 1.5 percent this year as the global
economy is entering a severe recession resulting from the coronavirus pandemic,
the International Monetary Fund said on Tuesday.
In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF forecast the worst global economic
crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The world economy will contract
by 3 percent before rebounding in 2021, it said.
The fund cautioned that this is a “baseline scenario” which assumes that the
pandemic will fade in the second half of 2020. “The pandemic could prove more
persistent than assumed in the baseline,” it said.
The Armenian economy grew by 7.6 percent last year and continued to expand
robustly in the first two months of this year. However, the situation changed
dramatically last month as the Armenian government put the country under
lockdown to fight against coronavirus.
The IMF said that Armenia will fall into a recession in 2020 but should grow by
4.8 percent already next year. It predicted steeper GDP contractions in the two
other South Caucasus states: Azerbaijan and Georgia.
The fund also expects that the Russian economy will shrink by 5.5 percent
primarily due to the collapse of international oil prices. Russia is Armenia’s
main trading partner, export market and source of multimillion-dollar
remittances from migrant workers.
U.S. -- A man walks past the IMF logo at its headquarters in Washington, May 10,
2018.
In a similar global report released on April 9, the World Bank said that the
Armenian economy could still grow by 1.7 percent in 2020 despite the pandemic.
But it warned that a prolonged health crisis would lead to “stagnant GDP or even
an economic contraction.”
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian admitted on April 10 that his country now stands
“on the brink of a recession.” “It seems inevitable,” he said during a video
conference with the prime ministers of Russia and three other ex-Soviet states
making up the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.
Pashinian’s government approved late last month a wide-ranging stimulus package
designed to cushion the economic impact of coronavirus. It includes cash
payments to a large part of the population, financial assistance to businesses
and loan subsidies for farmers.
On Sunday, the government decided to allow more types of business activity,
notably construction and cement and cigarette manufacturing, despite the
continuing spread of the disease which has already killed 16 Armenians.
The Armenian Ministry of Health said on Tuesday morning that 28 more people
tested positive for coronavirus in the past day, raising to 1,067 the total of
COVID-19 cases recorded in the country. Almost twice as many other people
recovered from the disease in the same period, according to it.
The ministry reported similar daily numbers of new infections in the course of
last week. The virus spread more rapidly in Armenia earlier in April and in late
March.
Also, Armenian health authorities claim to have more than doubled the daily
number of coronavirus tests in the last three days.
“I believe that right now we have a very serious chance to break the spine of
the epidemic,” Pashinian said when he cited the latest official figures in a
Facebook livestream.
The premier acknowledged that the government’s decision to reopen some sectors
of the domestic economy could reverse “recent days’ positive dynamic.” He again
urged the affected companies and their workers to follow social distancing rules
and take other precautions.
Senior Official Unimpressed By Armenian Judicial Reform
• Naira Bulghadarian
Armenia- The newly elected head of the Commission on Prevention of Corruption,
Haykuhi Harutiunian, at a news conference in Yerevan, November 26, 2019.
Judicial reforms launched by the Armenian government are a far cry from a
mandatory “vetting” of all judges demanded by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian
last year, the head of a state anti-corruption watchdog said on Tuesday.
Pashinian accused the Armenian judiciary of remaining linked to the country’s
“corrupt former regime” and vowed to replace many judges last May after a
district court in Yerevan freed Robert Kocharian, a former president facing coup
and corruption charges strongly denied by him.
Pashinian’s government agreed, however, to water down the planned judicial
reforms after subsequent consultations with legal experts from the Council of
Europe. In an October report, the Council of Europe’s Venice Commission praised
it for abandoning the “headstrong approach” initially adopted by the prime
minister.
The Armenian Justice Ministry said afterwards that the reforms will involve a
“verification of the integrity” of judges which will be carried out by the newly
formed Commission on Prevention of Corruption.
Under a relevant government bill passed by the Armenian parliament last month,
the commission will scrutinize their assets and income declarations. It is
empowered to not only launch disciplinary proceedings against judges suspected
of having dubiously acquired assets but also recommend their prosecution by
law-enforcement bodies.
Armenia -- Supporters of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian block the entrance to a
district court building in Yerevan, May 20, 2019.
The commission chairwoman, Haykuhi Harutiunian, seemed unimpressed with these
powers. She complained that the government declined to incorporate into the bill
proposals made by the commission.
“The commission will not be taking any actions in connection with decisions made
by judges, their conduct or so-called integrity,” she told RFE/RL’s Armenian
service.
The official appointed by the parliament argued that the anti-graft body will
only have access to detailed information about judges’ assets and financial
transactions declared after July 2017.
“The commission will have a more limited capacity to look into the legality of
assets and incomes declared in 2016, 2015, 2014 or 2013 and to take action in
case of finding violations in them,” she said.
Harutiunian insisted that the judicial reforms have therefore little to do with
vetting. The authorities will only vet lawyers aspiring to become judges, she
said.
Commenting on these remarks, Deputy Justice Minister Srbuhi Galian stressed the
importance of the powers given to Harutiunian’s commission.
Opposition groups, notably supporters of Kocharian and another former Armenian
president, Serzh Sarkisian, have repeatedly accused the current authorities of
seeking to gain control over the judiciary. They have pointed to charges brought
in July against the judge who ordered Kocharian’s release from prison. The
ex-president was arrested again in June.
The authorities deny such claims. Pashinian has repeatedly stated that the
reforms initiated by him will help to make Armenian courts “truly independent.”
Karabakh Holds Presidential Runoff Amid Coronavirus Concerns
• Sargis Harutyunyan
Nagorno-Karabakh -- A voter (L) and an election commission official at a polling
station in Stepanakert, March 31, 2020.
Residents of Nagorno-Karabakh went to the polls on Tuesday in the second round
of a presidential election held amid serious concerns about the spread of
coronavirus in the Armenian-populated territory which had broken away from
Azerbaijan in 1991.
Ara Harutiunian, a wealthy businessman and former prime minister, won over 49
percent of the vote in the first round held on March 31 and was seen as the
favorite to succeed Bako Sahakian, Karabakh’s outgoing president. His
challenger, Masis Mayilian, finished second with 26.4 percent.
Citing the coronavirus pandemic, Mayilian urged supporters on April 5 to boycott
the runoff. But he stopped short of withdrawing from the presidential race.
Sources told RFE/RL’s Armenian service that Mayilian will not cast his vote on
Tuesday.
Other political and civic figures in Karabakh as well as Armenia also called for
a postponement or cancellation of the election. The authorities in Stepanakert
dismissed those calls, saying that precautionary measures taken by them will
contain the spread of the virus.
The authorities did not change their stance, effectively backed by Harutiunian,
even after reporting the first case of coronavirus in Karabakh on April 5. Five
more people tested positive for the virus and more than a dozen others were
quarantined in the following days, according to them.
On April 12, Sahakian declared a coronavirus-related “emergency situation” in
the region but made clear that the runoff will go ahead as planned. The
emergency rule bans public gatherings, restricts transport links within Karabakh
and bars citizens of Armenia and other countries from entering the region.
All of Karabakh’s more than 280 polling stations were disinfected on the eve of
the controversial runoff. As was the case on March 31, every voter was handed a
face mask, gloves and a single-use pen when entering them. Election officials
also wore protective masks and gloves.
According to the local central election commission, 28 percent of Karabakh’s
103,000 eligible voters cast their ballots as of 2 p.m. local time. The turnout
thus seemed to be considerably lower than in the first round of voting.
Karabakh Armenians also elected on March 31 their new parliament. Harutiunian’s
Free Fatherland party won more than 40 percent of those votes and will control
16 of the 33 parliament seats.
The opposition United Homeland party of Samvel Babayan, a former Karabakh army
commander, will be the second largest parliamentary force with 9 seats. Three
other political groups will also be represented in the local legislature.
Azerbaijan strongly condemned the Karabakh elections, saying that they run
counter to Azerbaijani and international law. It also said that that Karabakh is
governed by an “illegal regime installed by Armenia.”
U.S., Russian and French diplomats co-heading the OSCE Minsk Group stressed, for
their part, that Karabakh is not recognized as an independent state by the
international community and that “the so-called general elections” cannot
predetermine the outcome of Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks mediated by them.
The European Union likewise said that the elections “cannot prejudice the
determination of the future status of Nagorno-Karabakh” and that it “does not
recognize the constitutional and legal framework within which they are being
held.”
By contrast, Armenia defended the holding of the polls. It argued that OSCE
member states had adopted in 1992 a document saying that “elected
representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh” should also participate in the peace
process.
Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL
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