By Mark Dovich
As a new report by the International Crisis Group highlights, Eurasia’s six unrecognized political entities—Abkhazia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia, and Transnistria—small territories in the post-Soviet space which function as de facto independent polities but enjoy little to no international recognition—are uniquely vulnerable to the challenges posed by the ongoing coronavirus crisis.
Despite key differences among them, these entities share striking similarities on several important measures that affect pandemic vulnerability.
All these territories have large elderly and impoverished populations, who disproportionately suffer from chronic illnesses; weak healthcare systems that struggle to overcome shortages of personal protective and testing equipment and outdated medical infrastructure; and health workers with limited qualifications and training.
In light of the ongoing coronavirus crisis, these longstanding issues have been compounded by the inaction of the de facto authorities, who have been reluctant to introduce coronavirus-related restrictions, and the entities’ contested statuses, which complicate international actors’ attempts to provide aid and assistance.
So far, none of these self-declared states have reported large coronavirus outbreaks—but just as their geopolitical isolation is much the cause of their resistance to the pandemic, that same isolation also raises serious concerns about their vulnerability.
Coronavirus Comes to Nagorno-Karabakh Mid-Election Season
April 7 saw the first confirmed coronavirus case in Nagorno-Karabakh, just a week after the first round of parliamentary and presidential elections were held there on March 31. Dismissing numerous calls from civil society activists and medical professionals to postpone the vote, the Nagorno Karabakh authorities conducted the polls with few precautions. Turnout was reported to be high, with voters standing close to each other in long lines, and many lacking personal protective equipment.
As no single presidential candidate received more than 50 percent of the votes, a second-round presidential election was scheduled to be held two weeks later. Despite the fact that a state of emergency had been declared on April 12, the runoff election was held as scheduled on April 14, with the authorities again ignoring calls to postpone the polls. At the time of the runoff election, Nagorno-Karabakh had reported six infections. It was only after this round of voting that significant movement restrictions were implemented in Karabakh.
As of May 7, Nagorno-Karabakh has confirmed a total of ten coronavirus infections, with no deaths reported so far. The reported cases are nearly all located in the districts of Kashatagh and Shahumyan. Nagorno-Karabakh’s total population is estimated at around 150,000.
Nagorno-Karabakh’s Epidemic Vulnerability in Comparative Context
In economic terms, Nagorno-Karabakh appears to be better prepared to withstand the economic ramifications of the pandemic than many other unrecognized entities. For one, Nagorno-Karabakh’s economy relies heavily on the agricultural sector, an industry that is expected to be far less impacted by the coronavirus than others.
In contrast, territories like Donetsk and Luhansk, whose economies are largely based on the service sector, and Abkhazia, which relies heavily on Russian trade and tourism, are far more vulnerable to the consequences of the coronavirus crisis. For instance, the GDP of Transnistria, whose robust industrial sector is expected to suffer heavily as a result of the pandemic, is projected to contract by an astonishing 16 percent this year.
Nonetheless, Nagorno-Karabakh also faces some distinct challenges in responding to the coronavirus outbreak. Perhaps most importantly, a vast majority of international aid organizations have been so far unable to operate in Nagorno-Karabakh. All international organizations, including UN agencies, risk the ire of the Azerbaijani government if they enter Nagorno-Karabakh. So, most do not.
Due to these requirements, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) is currently the only international organization that operates in Nagorno-Karabakh. Though the ICRC is certainly conducting important work in the region, the organization lacks the specialists and know-how that other bodies, like the World Health Organization (WHO), can offer. In contrast, the WHO has been active in Donetsk and Abkhazia, delivering much-needed medical supplies.
Moreover, even if the WHO or another organization received Baku’s go-ahead to enter Nagorno-Karabakh, it could legally operate only in the territory that corresponds to the Soviet-era Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO). At present, the authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh control seven districts that lie outside the boundaries of the former NKAO and are home to nearly 17,000 people. These people will have no access to assistance even if the Azerbaijani government permits aid organizations to operate in the rest of the territory. Troublingly, seven of Nagorno-Karabakh’s ten reported coronavirus cases are located in these districts.
What Is the Impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh Peace Process?
In an ironic twist, the coronavirus pandemic may help advance the long-stalled Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. On April 21, the OSCE Minsk Group, a diplomatic effort to mediate peace talks co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States, facilitated a videoconference between Armenian Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov.
The International Crisis Group has expressed hopes that increased contacts between the Armenian and Azerbaijani governments—with the immediate goal of organizing humanitarian support for Nagorno-Karabakh in fighting the coronavirus—could boost trust between the two sides, possibly laying the groundwork for peace negotiations in the future by demonstrating real-time collaboration for the first time since the conflict erupted more than 30 years ago.
What Comes Next for Nagorno-Karabakh in Fighting Coronavirus?
For their part, the Azerbaijani authorities have so far shown no inclination to permit humanitarian organizations access to Nagorno-Karabakh, despite a joint statement issued last month by the OSCE Minsk Group expressing both sides’ willingness to provide the territory support “without regard to political boundaries”.
On the other side, the Armenian government is struggling to control the pandemic in its own territory. Reflecting the economic ramifications of the crisis, the World Bank last month revised Armenia’s predicted GDP growth this year down to 1.7 percent, one-quarter of the country’s average growth rate in the period 2017-2019.
With neither Azerbaijani cooperation nor Armenian assistance assured, and the OSCE Minsk Group largely unable to effect real change on the ground, the coronavirus crisis serves as a stark reminder of Nagorno-Karabakh’s continued dependence on external actors.