The challenge of the coronavirus has exposed the weakness of every country. The unexpected pandemic, coupled with the unprepared panorama of response, has only exacerbated the intensity of the crisis. Looking forward, however, there is a widening divergence among countries, marked by an over-confident move to reopen economies versus a more gradual prudence of patience.

For small countries like Armenia, both the intensity of the threat and the implications of the crisis are magnified. And as reported on May 31 by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, he has been infected with COVID-19, along with his wife and three daughters.  As of June 5, there are slightly more than 11,200 cases of infection, with just over 170 dead, among a population of under 3 million. More than simply a country whose leader has now become infected, Armenia offers a revealing model of the danger of over-confidence and the risks from the broader implications of this crisis.

Through a long and difficult history, Armenia is known as a nation of survivors. And through a shorter period of statehood, with a founding generation of genocide survivors, Armenia has overcome both devastating earthquake and deadly war. Endowed with that degree of exceptionalism, many Armenians see the current coronavirus crisis as simply yet another test of resolve. Despite that rather impressive determination, such over-confidence only breeds public irresponsibility and ignores personal behaviour.

Erasing Early Gains

Despite a fairly rapid and robust response to the coronavirus pandemic, Armenia has staggered and stumbled over a surge in cases after an overly ambitious decision to ease restrictions and reopen the economy. Attempting to preempt a surge in cases that would overwhelm the country’s health care system, the government moved to limit the number of hospitalised cases but has been unable to ensure proper care at home and maintain significant testing.

Amid a record-setting spike in the daily cases of infections of the COVID-19, the Armenian government defended its decision last month to ease restrictions and reopen the economy, dismissing mounting calls for a renewed “lockdown” to prevent the spread of the virus.

Public Irresponsibility

With more than 400 new cases reported early each day at the end of May, this crisis is far from over, reinforcing expectations of a spike in new cases, mainly due to fresh outbreaks in newly reopened factories and businesses and a general failure by much of the public to adhere to prudent precautions of social distancing, avoid public gatherings and practice self-isolation when needed.

The latter factor of public disobedience is only exacerbated by a general flouting of restrictions and failure to recognize the threat, with weak enforcement. Against that backdrop, the threat of punishment or fines for violations are unlike to be effective at this stage, however, and suggest that only the re-imposition of a stricter “lockdown” and the forced closure of more businesses are necessary responses.

All businesses were allowed to reopen in the first week of May, although under with precautions that include social distancing, compulsory masks and other related preventive measures.  This was followed by a sweeping move by the Armenian government to resume public transport, restart kindergartens, and restore access to shopping malls, indoor restaurants and gyms.

Meanwhile, for his part, Health Minister Arsen Torosian prudently warned of the danger that the country’s public health system could be quickly overwhelmed, defending the decision to limit hospitalisation to only the most serious and life-threatening cases.   And while the more serious threat is not from the outbreak itself, but the risk of a surge of cases that overwhelm an already strained health care system, as the Health Minister warned. That danger of a collapsing health care system seems greater now, with indications suggesting the start of a “second wave” surge in new infections directly attributed to the ambitious move to reopen the economy that now seems to have been much too soon and far too over-confident.

Longer-Term Implications

There is a significantly longer-term implication for Armenia from the COVID-19 crisis, standing an important lesson for other countries.  In what should be more obvious to many, the tendency to under-estimate this pandemic not only intensifies the likelihood of a prolonged crisis but also increases the number of deaths, with many fatalities that could have been saved by a faster response and forceful restrictions.

The rush to restart the economy, reopen businesses, and return to “normal” in this context is irresponsible at best and irreparable at worst. And beyond that culpability, other countries, ranging from Belarus to Brazil, only contribute to the problem by denying the intensity of the virus or delaying an effective response.

Potentially, there are also bound to be profound political consequences, as people in every country will have long memories, noting which leaders acted wisely and which rashly abdicated their responsibility. And for an Armenian leader like Pashinyan, his popular support and political standing will face a new test yet to come. The challenge will be one of dangerously high expectations, from a frustrated and impatient population eager for a “return to normalcy.”

And it is precisely this expectation that can no longer be met. There will be no return to the past, no possibility of regaining the old status quo. Instead, there needs to be a new commitment to adapt and adopt the “new normal,” as the economic damage will only linger, the old ruleset of globalised trade will only be further limited and post-crisis challenges will only loom larger.