The Diplomat

Kavkaz 2020: Why Russia’s Latest Military Drills Are a Golden
Opportunity for Pakistan
By Shahid Hussain

Beyond a chance to deepen ties with Russia, Pakistan hopes to build
bridges with Central Asian countries through the Kavkaz 2020
exercises.

In the late 1970s, the Pakistani and Russian militaries faced off
against each other in the mountains of Afghanistan, albeit indirectly.
The conflict between the two started in 1979 when the Soviet army
marched into Kabul in support of the Afghan Communist Party. Pakistan
and America responded swiftly, funding and equipping the mujahideen as
well as providing safe haven for them to regroup in Pakistan’s
mountainous North West Frontier Province. The war rumbled on through
the 1980s and, throughout this period, Islamabad’s support for the
Afghan insurgency was unwavering. After sustained losses, the Soviet
Union withdrew from Afghanistan and in little more than a year, the
USSR itself would collapse.

Three decades later, Pakistan and Russia have met again on the
battlefield — but this time on the same side as part of joint military
exercises. Not only do these exercises mark a significant shift from
the mutual hostility of the 1980s, but they also stand to create a
number of opportunities for Pakistan and the wider erstwhile Soviet
world. The latest installment of exercises including both Russia and
Pakistan comes with the multilateral Kavkaz 2020 military drills.

The exercises will take place close to Russia’s southern city of
Astrakhan. The list of participating countries is impressive,  ranging
from Pakistan and Belarus to Azerbaijan and China. The drills include
war games and joint training, as well as the opportunity for
participants to show off their latest military technology and
hardware. This is not the first time Pakistan has participated in the
drills with Russia and Central Asian countries. For example, last year
Islamabad sent a contingent to the Tsentr 2019 exercise along with
Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and India.

However, this year is different.

India has recently announced it will not be participating in the
exercise. New Delhi was due to send around 200 soldiers, including
infantry, naval, and air force personnel, only to announce on Saturday
that it was withdrawing from the event. The stated reason was
difficulties due to COVID-19, even though officials speaking
anonymously pointed to India’s recent tensions with China as a factor
behind the decision. Furthermore, the prospect of training alongside
the Pakistani army almost certainty tilted the balance against
participation. While we are likely to see Indian officials emphasizing
their close military and strategic relationship with Russia in the
coming days, there is no doubt Moscow will be somewhat frustrated at
India’s sudden decision to pull out of the event.

For the Russian military, the sheer number and range of participants
alone marks a triumph of sorts and sends a defiant message to the West
and particularly the United States. India’s absence threatens this
messaging to a degree. This sudden reversal, alongside Prime Minister
Narendra Modi’s close relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump,
provides Pakistan an opportunity to cement its friendship with
President Vladimir Putin and Moscow.

However, aside from improving relations with Russia, the Kavkaz
military drills are an important opportunity for Pakistan to solidify
and develop its relationship with the former Soviet world. Russia’s
ally in the Caucasus, Armenia, will be attending the event. Pakistan
refuses to acknowledge the existence of Armenia in support of
Islamabad’s iron-clad ally Azerbaijan. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan are
currently engaged in a long-standing territorial dispute over the
region of Nagorno-Karabakh. While it is unlikely Pakistan will want to
upset Baku, the drills provide an opportunity for Pakistani and
Armenian troops to participate in the drills together, which could be
an important step toward improving relations. Despite the prospect of
Pakistan formally recognizing Armenia being a long way off, the mere
presence of the two armies together is symbolic.

Belarus will also send a contingent to the event — another country in
the former Soviet Union Pakistan has maintained a surprisingly warm
relationship with. President Alexander Lukashenko — who is under
significant pressure from the West over his controversial re-election
— is keen to further ties with as many allies as possible, including
Pakistan. Recently, he sent Independence Day greetings to Islamabad,
stating “Pakistan had succeeded in building an independent state” and
emphasizing the “great prospects” between the two unlikely allies.
Given this background, it is unsurprising Pakistan has refrained from
criticizing Lukashenko. The presence of both militaries in southern
Russia could act as a catalyst for stronger defense ties between
Islamabad and Minsk.

Pakistan can also use the opportunity to reset relations closer to
home. The scenic Wakan corridor separates Pakistan and Tajikistan and
at their closest point, the two countries are a mere 10 miles apart.
Despite historical and cultural ties between the two Asian nations
(both were part of the Arab Umayyad and Persian Empires) and their
joint participation in several infrastructure and energy projects (the
Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission and Trade Program),
Tajikistan plays host to India’s only air force base outside of its
borders. The Farkhor Air Base lies around 81 miles southeast of
Dushanbe and perilously close to Pakistan’s northern border with
Afghanistan. Indian fighter jets taking off from the base can reach
Pakistani airspace in little more than a few minutes.

Naturally, this has put a significant strain on relations with
Islamabad. Perhaps unsurprisingly, there are no major military ties or
significant arms deals between Pakistan and Tajikistan, and if the
former plays its cards right, it could use the drills as an
opportunity to pull Tajikistan away from India’s military grip.

Military drills are often seen as a show of common strength between
allies and a warning to others. However, for Pakistan it would be wise
not to see these drills as a show of strength, but rather as an
important opportunity to further its relationship with the former
Soviet World. India’s recent decision to stay away from Kavkaz 2020
along with the sheer number of former Soviet states participating in
them suggests a golden opportunity Pakistan cannot afford to ignore.

Shahid Hussain will commence his Ph.D. at the University College
London in September, where he will focus on diplomacy and the
relationship between Russia and Britain in the 17th century.