As Armenia and Azerbaijan Fight, Here’s Where U.S., Russia, Turkey, Iran Stand

Newsweek Magazine
Sept 29 2020


With Armenia and Azerbaijan engaged in their deadliest ethno-territorial dispute in years, major world powers are scrambling to respond to the burgeoning crisis in the Caucasus region that bridges Europe and Asia.

On Tuesday, both Turkey and Iran reportedly found themselves directly involved in the battle, while the U.S. and Russia remained closely engaged, calling for an immediate de-escalation.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict is rooted in a century of bloodshed that first erupted in the brief period of the neighboring countries' independence after the collapse of the Russian Empire and before the rise of the Soviet Union in the final years of the Ottoman Empire during World War I. It has erupted once again almost exactly 100 years later, escalating rapidly and dangerously in recent days. Both sides are already claiming to have inflicted dozens of casualties, while accusing the other of targeting civilians.

At the heart of this conflict is a disputed territory known as Nagorno-Karabakh. The 1,700- square-mile stretch of territory is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but is mostly ruled by the ethnic Armenian-run separatist government of the Arstakh Republic.

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Armenia and Azerbaijan fought their worst conflict yet amid the collapse of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but their dispute rekindled with exchanges of fire in April of 2016 and July of this year. Efforts to keep the peace in the months came to no avail as the rivalry ignited again over the weekend, this time threatening to devolve into all-out war.

Such a conflict has the potential to drag in Russia and Turkey, which back Armenia and Azerbaijan, respectively, as well as neighboring Iran, which shares cultural and religious ties to Azerbaijan but has traditionally been closer to Armenia. Meanwhile, the U.S. eyes yet another border spat abroad, testing Washington's traditional global leadership just weeks ahead of a divisive national election at home.

Russia has kept up close ties with Armenia since the fall of the Soviet Union, with Moscow and Yerevan both being members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Azerbaijan was also once part of the mutual defense pact, but left in 1999.

Still, Moscow and Baku also have strong relations and Azerbaijani representatives even observed the joint Caucasus 2020 exercises involving Russia along with Armenia, Belarus, China, Iran, Myanmar and Pakistan just days before the latest fighting broke out.

Led by Russian President Vladimir Putin for the past two decades, Russia has sought to reclaim former spheres of influence both near and afar. While the U.S. and partnered Western countries have attempted to block Russia in Eastern Europe, it was another rival NATO alliance member, Turkey, that has stepped up its presence in Syria and Libya.

Russia has so far succeeded in avoiding major state-versus-state violence in these other theaters, but Armenian ambassador to Moscow Vardan Toganyan told a Moscow radio station on Monday that Yerevan was prepared to formally request military support from its ally if necessary.