The international system is reliant on national clout and effect. It will only gear up if a nation or a group of nations, through its actions, threatens the global status-quo. Traditionally, the dominant powers dislike threats to the established order as it may usher in uncertainty. There are crises and disputes among nations that are brought to the limelight only if parties to the dispute try and change the regional and/or global status-quo.

Nagorno-Karabakh or Artsakh — as the Armenians call it — in southwestern Azerbaijan, is one such legacy dispute. Some analysts see it as a conflict between Muslim Azerbaijan and Christian Armenia. That view is grounded in the conquests of Turko-Persian Seljuk Empire (1060-1307 AD), when Christian Armenia was firmly under Seljuk suzerainty.

The enclave is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan but is populated by ethnic Armenians, therefore, supported by Armenia. In 1923, the Soviet Union established it as an Armenian-majority autonomous oblast (province) of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR) having a high degree of self-rule. Now it is a self-declared independent country, not internationally recognised.

The Karabakh Range separates the enclave from Armenia, then the Armenian SSR. The enclave, under the USSR, spread over some 4,400 square kilometres, however, presently it occupies some 7,000 square km after capturing Azerbaijani territory. The region is generally mountainous, forested and rural with some light industry and food-processing plants. Xankändi (formerly Stepanakert) is its capital. It is surrounded on almost all sides by Azerbaijan except a thin strip of land in the southwest, connecting it to Armenia.

During 1988, Armenians of the enclave demanded transfer of their oblast to the Armenian jurisdiction against the wishes of both, the Soviet government and the Azerbaijan SSR. War ensued between the ethnic Armenians and Azeris in the enclave in 1991, after the USSR’s collapse. Karabakh’s Armenian forces, with full support of Armenia, occupied much of southwestern Azerbaijan, including the territory connecting the enclave to Armenia. A ceasefire agreement in 1994 was negotiated by Russia and a committee called the “Minsk Group”, created by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). However, there has been no lasting resolution to the conflict.

The self-proclaimed Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh declared its independence in early 1992, held elections thereafter and approved a new constitution in a 2006 referendum. Azerbaijan considers all these actions illegal under international law. A 2008 landmark agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan pledged movement towards a resolution; however, episodic clashes have occurred throughout the 2010s. A breakdown in diplomacy led to clashes in July and late September this year, hence the recent escalation.

On October 10, both Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to a limited ceasefire brokered by Russia, including prisoners exchange and removal of dead from the battlefield.

During the earlier war in the 1990s, Azerbaijan had put an economic blockade of land-locked Armenia as the war spread beyond Nagorno-Karabakh to the southern part of Armenia-Azerbaijan border. That may happen again if the situation escalates. Then, most of Armenia’s logistics were brought through traditional rail and road network from the Caspian Sea port of Baku, capital of Azerbaijan. Georgia was of limited help, Armenia had no relations with Turkey and roads across Armenia’s short frontier with Iran, to the south, were inadequate for heavy truck traffic. The United States provided 33,000 tons of American grain to Nagorno-Karabakh through Armenia after bread shortages. It airlifted critical items like baby food and medical supplies. That situation has marginally changed.

In the 1990s, 75% of the enclave’s population of 162,000 constituted ethnic Armenians after more than 600,000 Azeris and 200,000 Armenians were displaced. Armenians were outnumbered two to one by Azeris, prompting the US State Department to warn the largely isolated Armenia of a “national catastrophe” in December 1992. Today some 9.9 million Azeris face up to 2.9 million Armenians.

During recent build-up, Armenia killed an Azeri general and other officers in a missile strike on an Azerbaijan Army base in July this year. In the ensuing clashes, the enclave’s capital city, Xankändi, has been hit with missiles and suicide drones. Azerbaijan’s second largest city Ganja, and a hydroelectric station were struck in powerful rocket attacks causing losses. And Azerbaijani drones flew within 20 miles of Yerevan, Armenia’s capital. Ground operations have caused territorial losses to the Armenians.

The next targets could be oil and gas facilities on either side, affecting oil and gas supply to Europe. Azerbaijan accuses Armenia of firing rockets using its territory; ostensibly to invite Azeri retaliation, triggering Armenia’s defense pact with Russia. Turkey is solidly behind Azerbaijan. Any escalation beyond the enclave would draw in Turkey and Russia as Russia has a military base in Armenia and is treaty-bound to protect Armenia.

Russia and France support Armenia’s claim that Turkey deployed Syrian militants to Nagorno-Karabakh, besides using F-16s, thanks to the Armenian diaspora in the US, France and Russia.

Azerbaijan, frustrated by international inaction, seems resolved to fight until it has full control of Nagorno-Karabakh as the Minsk Group has not made any material advancement towards a lasting peace settlement. Its meeting in Geneva on October 8, 2020, with France and Russia — the other co-chairs — was convened nearly two weeks after the conflict. The US seems preoccupied with the pandemic, a popular uprising in Belarus and Trump catching corona.

Russia has been able to at least negotiate a tenuous ceasefire on October 10, as both countries were erstwhile socialist republics. Both use large-calibre, Russian-made Smerch (tornado) rockets and Russia has been supplying the same weapons to both sides for decades.

Azerbaijan rightfully seeks to control all the territory within its UN-recognised borders besides restitution for some 600,000 people displaced by the war in the 1990s. Armenians in the enclave fear Azerbaijani rule. While the Azerbaijan government suspects that the enclave’s Armenians will ultimately opt to join Armenia, it is prepared to allow them “cultural autonomy.”

This festering conflict is far from being settled and would most likely continue till the time the enclave is fully absorbed by Azerbaijan that enjoys all the legal, moral and administrative authority to do so. Azerbaijan has been boldly supporting our Kashmir cause and there are reasons to believe they have Pakistan’s moral and material support in their hour of need, in a just war.

Published in The Express Tribune, October 15^th, 2020.