Asia Times
Outgoing US president could yet orchestrate a conflict with the aim of
retaining power after losing at the polls
By Kaveh Afrasiabi
US President Donald Trump’s abrupt decision to fire his Secretary of
Defense Mark Esper and replace him with hawkish yes-man Christopher
Miller, who headed the National Counterterrorism Office and before
that the Pentagon’s “special operations” program, has sparked fear in
the US media as well as in Iran that Trump might be plotting to
trigger a war with Iran before his scheduled departure from the White
House on January 20.
Various US media outlets including the New York Times published
headlines like “Trump fires Esper, the Defense Secretary Who Opposed
the Use of Troops in the Streets.”
That’s true, but given the distinct possibility that Trump’s real
motive was oriented more against foreign adversaries like Iran, such
accent on Esper’s difference with the president on domestic matters
may turn out to be journalistic myopia. Perhaps a more fitting
headline would be: “Trump fires Esper, who opposed war with Iran.”
“The United States is not seeking a war with Iran…We are seeking a
diplomatic solution,” Esper told the media in early January 2020. One
step further, he even openly contradicted Trump’s claim that
US-assassinated Iranian General Ghasem Soleimani was plotting attacks
on four US embassies around the world.
Esper also stood up to Trump, who threatened to wipe out Iran’s
cultural centers, by flatly stating that the Pentagon had no such
bombing plans.
With Esper gone and replaced with a new acting defense secretary in
the waning months of Trump’s presidency, the stage could be set for a
US-Iran war in light of the related news from the US State Department
that it plans a “flood” of new Iran sanctions in the coming days.
[Photo: US President Donald Trump shakes hands with then-US Secretary
of Defense Dr. Mark Esper in the Cabinet Room of the White House in
Washington, DC on Monday, October 7, 2019. Credit: Ron Sachs / Pool
via CNP]
The outgoing Trump administration could thus be in the process of
implementing a one-two punch, whereby the onslaught of new sanctions
and other related pressures on Iran would be followed by “triggering
events” such as anti-US acts of terror attributed to Iran and its
proxies in Iraq and elsewhere, culminating in an all-out war.
In this vein, some foresee a delayed “October surprise” in light of
the disputed US presidential elections, with the incumbent president
desperately exploring legal avenues to overturn Biden’s victory and
secure a backdoor second term in office.
The problem, however, is that there is scant evidence of voter fraud
and most US pundits agree there is little or no chance of US courts
intervening to change the election result in Trump’s favor absent any
significant evidence of a “stolen election”, as falsely claimed by
Trump.
But Trump’s hand might be strengthened if the US suddenly finds itself
in a state of war in the coming weeks, creating an emergency situation
that Trump would leverage to his advantage as a “wartime president”
and then somehow use that stature to avoid being evicted from the
White House.
Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives,
has warned among others that Trump’s ominous decision to suddenly sack
Esper and replace him – not with Esper’s deputy, as is the norm – but
rather with a loyal hawk from another department has the potential to
rupture a “transition of power” to Biden now widely being taken for
granted by the Democrats.
[Photo: Then-National Counterterrorism Center Director Christopher
Miller testifies before a House Homeland Security Committee hearing on
September 17, 2020, in Washington, DC. Photo: AFP/Pool/Chip
Somodevilla]
In this war scenario, Israel, which dreads the departure of Trump and
the prospect of an Obama-like detente with Iran under a new Biden
administration, can play its part by staging a “false flag” operation
targeting US forces in Iran’s vicinity, yielding the desired result in
the form of a massive US military retaliation including a possible
high-stakes attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Some Israeli officials have already gone on record in media reports
warning that Biden’s victory would mean a war with Iran. Saudi
Arabia’s rulers, who are likewise petrified by the possibility of a
new, conciliatory US approach towards Iran under Biden could also
potentially lend assistance to such a shadow plot.
For Iran’s part, President Hassan Rouhani has reacted to Biden’s
victory by sending a conciliatory message that emphasizes Iran’s
determination to have a constructive rapport with the international
community, while simultaneously calling on the US to honor its
international obligations by returning to the Iran nuclear agreement,
which Trump confrontationally abandoned.
Faced with the imminent prospect of a reversal of his landmark
confrontational policies towards Iran, Trump could seek to frustrate
Biden’s sanguine prediction that “the grim era of demonization” of
Iran will end come January 20 with his inauguration as president.
[Photo: Anti-war activist protests in front of the White House in
Washington, DC, on January 4, 2020. Photo: AFP/Andrew
Caballero-Reynolds]
There are other ominous signs of a dark plot. Mitch McConnell, the
ranking Republican Senator, has decided to back Trump’s accusation of
systematic election fraud, thus giving Trump a major boost in his
stubborn battle to deny the will of a majority of American voters.
McConnell and other Trump loyalists inside and outside of the US
government would, of course, rush to defend him in any potential
confrontation with Iran, which will almost certainly not come as a
result of any Iranian provocation amid the transition from Trump to
Biden.
No matter the official justification for a war with Iran, there would
be a huge public outcry and widespread suspicions of foul play that
aimed ultimately at keeping Trump in power. Yet it is far from clear
that Trump and his lackeys are beyond orchestrating such a nightmarish
scenario for their own political ends.
