President Erdoğan is asserting Turkey’s military hard power to bolster himself politically. But he also sees restoring Turkey’s regional standing as his calling.
It’s been able to do so because around the region, the United States and the Europeans have increasingly absented themselves. But using that power – decisively, in the case of supporting Azerbaijan against Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh – also means potentially coming into conflict with a great power like Russia.
Turkey’s economy can be another limiting factor, but the temptation to act is great, not only to improve President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s political standing, but to improve the nation’s self-image.
“There is clearly a resurgent Turkey – one that has more self-confidence – [that] defines its role in the world as having a military footprint outside of its borders,” says Aslı Aydıntaşbaş, an expert with the European Council on Foreign Relations.
“Turkey wants to be a regional hegemon, and to get to that it understands it needs to be an active player in conflict zones,” Ms. Aydıntaşbaş says. “President Erdoğan himself feels that … it’s his calling in life to make sure Turkey emerges as a great power.”