Azerbaijan’s shooting down of a Russian military helicopter near Nagorno-Karabakh left Armenians and Azerbaijanis questioning how Russia might determine the outcome of conflict in the region. A short but bloody conflict has been waged in Nagorno-Karabakh between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the outcome finally being an Armenian concession to Azerbaijan the week of November 9.
The division over the region has been longstanding. After Armenia and Azerbaijan became independent from the Soviet Union, a war over control of it occurred from 1992 to 1994. The result was that the territory was within Azerbaijan but populated and governed by Armenians. In September, conflict broke out as Azerbaijan tried to reclaim its lost territory. On November 9, Azerbaijani forces shot down a Russian helicopter as it was escorting Russian military vehicles to a military base in Armenia near Yeraskh, in Armenian territory. The helicopter was flying in a space where Russian helicopters had not been sighted, according to the New York Times. It was shot down by a man-portable air-defense system (MANPADS), resulting in the death of two on board and injuries to the third.
Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry quickly apologized to Russia after the incident, calling it an accident for which they would compensate. Russia has a military agreement with Armenia that it will support Armenia if its territory is threatened. The fact that the incident occurred on Armenian territory meant that Russia could have intervened on Armenia’s behalf and enforced a cease-fire; however, it stood by as Azerbaijani forces captured Nagorno-Karabakh’s second largest town of Shusha on November 8. Fearing that Azerbaijani forces would also take the largest city of Stepanakert, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was compelled to sign a peace agreement to turn over some areas of Nagorno-Karabakh that it previously controlled.
The peace agreement caused an uproar and protests in Armenia, while Azerbaijanis celebrated. Pashinyan called the deal “unspeakably painful,” according to the Daily Mail. The BBC quoted him saying, “this is not a victory but there is not defeat until you consider yourself defeated.” AP News said that Artur Vanetsyan, a center-right party leader and former leader of the national security service, was arrested on the conviction of planning to assassinate Pashinyan. The fighting resulted in 1,434 Armenian servicemen dead, according to AP News. Azerbaijan has not reported its losses. Many Armenians living in surrendered areas of Nagorno-Karabakh set fire to their homes and tried to destroy resources that would benefit incoming Azerbaijanis. Armenian civilian Seda Gabrilyan lamented to AP News, “our nation has lost everything, our heritage, everything. We have nothing left. I can’t say anything.”
The peace agreement has hardly created a feeling of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia and indicates an uncertain future. According to The Guardian, the agreement “leaves a cloud of uncertainty over parts of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Many Armenians are now displaced, which will only deepen Armenians’ resentment to Azerbaijan. Armenians feel abandoned by Russia, who has now stepped in to oversee territorial realignment and will send 2,000 peacekeepers to the region in order to do so. The peacekeepers plan to monitor both sides there for at least five years. The conflict has become a stage for Russia and Turkey to confront each other, as Azerbaijan is backed by Turkey while Armenians are counting on Russia’s support. Older citizens remark that it is unfortunate that there is now such a divide between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, when they co-existed before in the Soviet Union. Igor Badalyan, an older Armenian, commented to the New York Times: “it is sad that it happened this way. We didn’t want it to be this way.”
The conflict has also shown a complete lack of interest from the Western world, who has been more focused on the US presidential election. France, the US, and Russia were part of the OSCE Minsk Group that had been trying to hold peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the 1994 conflict. However, France and the US were absent in this most recent dispute. This leaves Turkey and Russia to carry out their influence in the Nagorno-Karabakh, and indicates that there likely will not be much support from the West during the realignment of the region or in response to the displacement of many Armenians.
The recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has created deep-seated tensions between the two sides and an uncertain future for the region. Despite Russia finally intervening by deploying peacekeepers, the long-term effects of the current conflict and their humanitarian implications are largely unknown.