If there was any doubt that Premier Gladys Berejiklian's business-like manner would be missed while she was on a break this week, it might have dissipated when her deputy took over the daily COVID briefings yesterday.
Acting Premier John Barilaro – “four chilling words right there” tweeted Herald correspondent Bevan Shields – was not just a reminder of how well Berejiklian does in the role, but also of all the obstacles she faced last year and the many that still confront her.
She is not just trying to protect the health of the state, but also ensure her own political survival. The two are intimately entangled.
Hard as some find it to believe, given her strong handling of the pandemic thus far, she is not Saint Gladys but also a political animal who has had to suppress far more than the current COVID outbreak.
She has won plaudits for her handling of the crisis even from the Prime Minister, whose office has previously been lukewarm about the moderate NSW Premier, but Morrison now publicly lauds her work in keeping open the state as the “gold standard” in state COVID responses. She's a useful foil to her Victorian counterpart.
Daniel Andrews' disastrous mid-year hotel quarantine fail and Victoria’s ensuing four-month lockdown came as NSW maintained business as usual. On everything from using police and military to QR codes and contact trading, NSW has been far ahead of Victoria. It overshadowed memories of NSW's Ruby Princess debacle early in the crisis.
But then came the December northern beaches outbreak and partial lockdown which has caused havoc across the country. Borders slammed shut again and voters are polarised along political as well as state lines.
The NSW government’s stubborn refusal to follow the Victorian example and make masks mandatory early in the lockdown has been criticised by the left – but she has been under pressure from the right to avoid following the man it dubbed “Dictator Dan”.
While Berejiklian finally backflipped on the mask issue, she held firm over holding the New Year’s Eve fireworks and is refusing so far to back down on allowing crowds to attend the upcoming Sydney cricket Test.
Berejiklian has the advantage over Andrews in facing a tamer right-wing media. Her decision to take the week off has attracted less heat while Andrews is under pressure to return from his break because of the growing outbreak.
But Berejiklian is in the politically more difficult position. While both have weak Opposition parties, the NSW Premier has a slimmer majority and her Coalition partner is headed by the aggressively populist Barilaro who has constantly undermined her authority.
In September he spectacularly threatened to blow up the union by voting against his own government over koala habitat legislation. Berejiklian took an uncharacteristically tough line and called his bluff, but her victory was short-lived as October saw an even more dramatic turn with the Maguire affair.
Few would ever have thought of the inscrutable Berejiklian even appearing before the ICAC, much less admitting to a secret seven-year affair with the target of an investigation.
The political well of goodwill is now very shallow for the Premier. She survives with the support of the Left faction led by the dynamic Environment Minister Matt Kean who was able to push through a landmark energy package this year.
For now, the Right is happy for her to carry the COVID can and give heir apparent Treasurer Dominic Perrottet more distance from his icare scandal.
Since his return from mental-health leave, a chastened Barilaro has kept a low profile and while he is playing nice with most of the Liberal ministers, that is not said to include the Premier.
Should her "proportionate" response to the outbreak bubbling along in NSW succeed, it will shore up her political stocks, providing some crucial ballast should the ICAC report go against her. Or for any other disaster, natural or man-made.