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OPERATIONAL CONTEXT
On 27 September 2020, heavy clashes broke out along the line of contact (LoC) and quickly expanded to other areas in and around Nagorno-Karabakh (NK). Several internationally negotiated attempts to end the conflict were unsuccessful, and violence intensified, until a 9-point ceasefire agreement brokered by the Russian Federation was signed between the parties during the night of 9-10 November. During the six weeks of conflict, several civilian casualties were reported and many houses and public infrastructure in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone, such as schools, roads and communication networks, were destroyed. As a result, at the peak of the crisis, it is estimated that the majority of the population living in Nagorno-Karabakh, had fled to Armenia.
According to the Armenian Migration Service, some 90,000 persons are registered to be in a refugee-like situation in Armenia, spread out across the ten marzes of the country , and Yerevan. The vast majority among them (around 88 percent) are women and children . At the same time, various reports indicate that between 20,000 to 50,000 individuals have gone back to Nagorno-Karabakh since mid-November, but the nature and sustainability of these returns are yet to be determined. While the ceasefire agreement is currently holding, concerns have emerged due to punctual incidents, which could affect the willingness of the population from Nagorno-Karabakh to return.
Considering the winter season combined with the severely damaged infrastructure and concerns over security leading to the inability of most of the refugee-like population to go back to their homes, it is likely that the majority of this population will opt to remain in Armenia during the coming winter months.
The host communities, warmly welcomed the refugee-like population from Nagorno-Karabakh, sharing their accommodation, food and available resources. The Government provided some communal shelters for the new arrivals and lately has been rolling out several cash-based support programmes for the affected population.
The recent conflict and the impact it has had on host communities and refugee-like populations – ranging from physical, social, mental and financial – is also adding pressure on institutions and their capacities to understand, coordinate, finance and address essential needs. Previously socio-economically stable households may face high challenges to pay rental fees, utilities and provide food as their household sizes significantly increase as a result of hosting refugee-like families from Nagorno-Karabakh.