If Nikol Pashinyan remains Armenia’s leader, a renewed war and another defeat of Armenia are “inevitable”, according to political scientist Andranik Tevanyan, the head of the Political Economy Research Institute.
In a Facebook post on Monday, he said Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev's latest statement on the “Zangezur corridor”, as well as the joint Turkish-Azerbaijani military exercises are reminiscent of his aggressive speeches and the similar Turkish-Azerbaijani drills before 27 September 2020.
According to Tevanyan, the Azeri leader hinted to a new war just like he did in his speech at the UN last year. Azerbaijan wants to use the Armenian authorities’ refusal to open the Syunik corridor until the return of Armenian prisoners of war (POWs) as an opportunity, he added.
“Turkey is again pushing Azerbaijan to war, offering as an excuse the failure of the Armenian side to comply with the November 9 and January 11 agreements. On January 11, Nikol defended the interests of Azerbaijan in Moscow, failing even to resolve the issue of the prisoners. Now he wants to retaliate and negotiate the formula "return of prisoners in exchange for the Syunik corridor", but it's too late.
“They demand from Nikol the opening of the Syunik corridor, to which he has agreed, but in return he asks Azerbaijan to return the prisoners so that he would have something to “sell” to the Armenian people. Aliyev refuses to return the prisoners, because he considers both Nikol and Armenia to be wimps, while the POWs are cards in his hands.
“Until Armenia is represented by a new negotiator, we will not get back the prisoners, there will be no defender of Armenia’s interests.
“If Nikol Pashinyan remains prime minister, war and another defeat are inevitable. But this time Armenia itself will become a stage of military operations.
“Nikol’s removal is a key precondition to avoid war and, in the event of it, not to repeat the Artsakh results. Does the army understand this?” Tevanyan said.