Armenian analyst Tigran Abrahamyan, the head of Henaket Analytical Center, sees no threat of war with Azerbaijan over a short or medium period of time.
“Considering that the risk of renewed hostilities is being discussed from different angles, I would like to make a few brief observations.
“I must say right away that I exclude the likelihood of war in the near future. In the medium term, the risks will definitely increase, but I do not consider the likelihood of renewed war at that stage high.
“In the long run, there are many factors that can significantly increase the likelihood of war,” he wrote on Facebook on Friday.
Abrahamyan said the main reason for not predicting a war in the short and medium terms is the presence of the Russian military in Artsakh and its expansion on Armenia’s border.
“In 2008, we saw in Abkhazia and South Ossetia what happens when attempts are made to use force in conditions of the deployment of Russian peacekeepers.
“The situation may change if there are sharp turns inside Russia and in our region.
“What I said in no way excludes border provocations and tensions, moreover, their intensification is a subject of additional analysis,” the analyst said.