Asia Times
[Turkish leader foresees 'new era' of US relations but there are still
plenty of differences, concerns and interests to keep the two sides
apart]
By MK Bhadrakumar
Expectations are soaring in Ankara over the forthcoming meeting
between US President Joe Biden and his Turkish counterpart Recep
Tayyip Erdogan on the sidelines of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) summit in Brussels next Monday.
Erdogan said recently, “I believe that our meeting with Biden at the
NATO summit will be the harbinger of a new era.”
Without doubt, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s remarks at
a White House briefing on Monday on Biden’s first presidential tour
abroad carried positive vibes – that Biden is looking forward to
reviewing the “full breadth” of Ankara-Washington ties and discuss
Eastern Mediterranean, Syria, Afghanistan and other regional issues as
part of an “expansive agenda” next week, while acknowledging that the
two leaders will also look at the “significant differences” between
the two NATO allies.
Most important, Sullivan transmitted a “presidential message” to
Erdogan personally: “President Biden knows Erdogan very well. The two
men have spent a good amount of time together and they’re both, I
think, looking forward to the opportunity to really have a
businesslike opportunity to review the full breadth of the
relationship.”
The conventional wisdom among analysts is that the US and Turkey are
hopelessly entangled in a messy relationship. But then, the two
countries also have a long history of sequestering their alliance from
deep differences. At the present moment, what lends enchantment to the
Turkish-American alliance is that Washington has consistently regarded
Turkey as a “swing” state that can tilt the West’s relations with
Russia.
Add to that now a further dimension, with an eye on Turkey’s unique
geography, as regards the United States’ prioritization of China’s
exclusion from the Western world. There’s no gainsaying that the
upcoming meeting in Brussels will be a high-stakes affair.
With a touch of exaggeration, perhaps, one can even say that Biden’s
meetings with Erdogan (June 14) and Russian President Vladimir Putin
(June 16) are joined at the hips. In almost all the “talking points”
that Sullivan singled out – Eastern Mediterranean, Syria and
Afghanistan – Russia is a sleeping partner.
nd more so, if we recognize that an “expansive agenda” cannot but
include the entire swath of the region where Europe and Eurasia
overlap, which is turning into a theater of contestation between the
US (NATO) and Russia – from Central Asia to the Caspian and Caucasus;
and, from the Black Sea northward across Ukraine.
To be sure, the Biden administration is preparing well for the
upcoming meeting with Erdogan. To borrow an expression that Sullivan
used to graphically thumb-sketch Vladimir Putin, Erdogan too is a “a
singular kind of personalized leader, and having the opportunity to
come together in a summit will allow us to manage this relationship
and stand up and defend American values most effectively.”
Much preparatory work has been undertaken. Two top US diplomats
traveled to Ankara in recent weeks for consultations – Deputy
Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and the US ambassador to the United
Nations (who carries cabinet rank), Linda Thomas-Greenfield.
The State Department announced that Sherman would “underscore the
importance of the US-Turkey relationship as we work together with our
NATO ally to confront mutual challenges, and discuss areas of
concern.”
The US Mission to the UN in New York said in an announcement last week
that Thomas-Greenfield would discuss “opportunities to strengthen the
US- Turkey relationship, work with our NATO ally to address global
challenges [and] improve cooperation on Syria.” A senior US diplomat
at the New York mission called this “a moment of intense engagement”
with senior Turkish officials ahead of the Biden-Erdogan meeting.
The US diplomat added that Turkey is “a critical NATO ally, and we
have a strategic relationship that spans an enormous breadth of issues
and concerns, including global and regional security issues,
obviously, economic issues related to democracy and human rights.”
The Turkish side too began preparing for the Biden-Erdogan meeting
through past several weeks since Biden pronounced on April 24 the
taboo “Armenian genocide” – after the 1915 wartime massacres under
Ottoman Rule.
It was a red line for Turkey, and Ankara should have reacted harshly –
ranging from a closure of the Incirlik airbase to the US or even
stoping the operations of the ABM radar base in Malatya-Kurecik in
eastern Turkey, a strategic asset of the Western alliance system
encircling Russia.
But Biden’s profound experience in international diplomacy was on
display when he put a call through to Erdogan prior to making the
announcement on the Armenian genocide and offered to meet in Brussels
in June.
Interestingly, prior to that phone conversation, Sullivan made a call
(April 23) with Erdogan’s top aide Ibrahim Kalın where they reached a
“consensus” on the exact wording that Biden would use in his
announcement the next day whereby the blame for the Armenian genocide
would be placed at the doorsteps of the dying Ottoman Empire and
ensure Ankara wouldn’t be wrestling with compensation lawsuits in
American courts by the heirs of Armenians who fled to the US in 1915
or after.
Sullivan’s tactful diplomacy and Biden’s gracious gesture had a
magical effect on Erdogan. By the way, a third call also came from
Washington to Ankara to follow up on Biden’s conversation with
Erdogan: This time around, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called
his Turkish counterpart Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu.
Indeed, three top-level calls from Washington to Ankara within two
hours on April 23! They ensured that Biden’s announcement on April 24
all but became a non-event. Suffice to say, Biden’s highly
inflammatory announcement has since become a damp squib. The highly
excitable Turks have since moved on.
The episode testifies to the inherent strength and resilience of
Turkish-American alliance. This is the touchstone to apply to reassess
Turkey’s current “Islamist” ruling elite. The point is, amid the
cacophony over “neo-Ottomanism,” Turkey’s apparent obsession with
“strategic autonomy” or Erdogan’s mercurial personality traits, the
Turkish elite cannot afford a rupture in the umbilical chord that ties
them to the Western world.
Turkey’s Islamist elite are as much the inheritors of Kemal Ataturk’s
legacy that their country’s destiny lies with the West. The Americans
– Biden, in particular – would know that home truth. Therefore, the
leitmotif of the Biden-Erdogan summit is going to be the tango at a
personal level between two presidents whose genius for dealmaking is
legion.
Having said that, the differences, concerns and interests that keep
Washington and Ankara apart are not to be underestimated. That needs a
separate analysis (a second part to this article will follow). But
make no mistake, a process of reconciliation is due to commence.
