June 11th Election Data Update: Hayastan Alliance Takes Outright Lead; Opposition Surges Sixteen Points Ahead

Robert Kocharyan in Talin

MPG/Gallup Int has released an updated pre-election poll, taken between June 8th to June 10th. It’s their seventh such poll released during this campaign season, and the fourth in the last three weeks. I added the data to what I had charted during the previous weeks. To review the full methodology that I have used, you can look at the original article from May 25th. Everything that has been stated in previous weeks has been italicized:

Please also be aware that since the last MPG/Gallup Int. poll released on June 5th, Ukrainian NGO Center for Social Development “Inter-Action” has published its own polling data on June 7th. In order to maintain consistency in the data charted, I did not include the “Inter-Action” data in my graphics below. While confirming many of the general trends of the MPG/Gallup Int. polls, the “Inter-Action” poll showed much stronger numbers for the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance than had been seen up to that point in the MPG/Gallup Int. data, which had made me cautious about relying too heavily on the results.

The latest MPG/Gallup Int. poll has once again confirmed many of those same trends. Moreover, the very strong showing of Պատիվ Ունեմ on the MPG/Gallup Int. polling seems to validate the “Inter-Action” numbers.

Based on the latest data, the Հայաստան alliance between the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ՀՅԴ), former president Robert Kocharyan, and Armenian Renaissance (ՎՀԿ) has once again continued its dramatic and unexpected momentum. In the latest data, among all voters, it now has an outright lead of 0.3 percent over the ruling party, a 17.6 percent turnaround from the launch of their campaign. Much more importantly, the opposition as a whole now enjoys a commanding 11.9 percent lead among all voters, a 16.4 percent lead among decided voters, and it is now in position to take some sixty percent of seats in parliament.

Data for all voters

To avoid confusion, please distinguish between the pro-government Republic Party (ՀԿ) of Aram Sargsyan and the former ruling party of Serzh Sargsyan, the Republican Party of Armenia (ՀՀԿ). On a similar note, distinguish between the aforementioned Republic Party (ՀԿ), and the Fatherland Party of Artur Vanetsyan (which has the same Armenian initials as ՀԿ) which is in an alliance with ՀՀԿ in the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance. To avoid confusion, In this article I refer to Artur Vanetsyan’s party only in its full name and only in English, while I refer to Aram Sargsyan’s party as ՀԿ.

Using the latest polling data, as well as that of undecided voters above, I tried to create an accurate picture of committed voters. Once again, you can refer to the May 25th article to get the full details of the methodology used.

Data for comitted voters

If you are not familiar with the Armenian political landscape, please note that the ruling party and ՀԿ can be considered firmly in the socially liberal/pro-western/anti-nationalist government camp, while the equally liberal Bright Armenia Party (ԼՀԿ) can be considered somewhat in the government camp. On the opposition side, the Հայաստան and Պատիվ Ունեմ alliances can be considered firmly in the socially conservative/pro-Russia/nationalist opposition camp, with the equally socially conservative Prosperous Party of Armenia (ԲՀԿ) somewhat in the opposition camp, but largely limited to whatever best serves the personal interests of Gagik Tsarukyan. Both ԼՀԿ and ԲՀԿ can be expected to be willing to cross lines if it serves their interests, though at this point both of those scenarios seem unlikely.

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The following are critical parts of the Armenian electoral code that must be understood. I only included the parts that are pertinent to the results of the latest polling data.

• All political parties must receive a minimum of five percent of the vote to enter parliament. All political alliances must receive a minimum of seven percent. This means as things stand ԼՀԿ and ՀԿ being under five percent would not enter parliament.
• If a party or coalition gets less than fifty-four percent, but more than fifty percent, they will be granted the additional seats needed to reach a fifty-four percent majority. (Please note the difference between a coalition and an alliance. An alliance is formed pre-election, such as the Հայաստան alliance between ՀՅԴ, Robert Kocharyan, and ՎՀԿ or that of Պատիվ Ունեմ between ՀՀԿ and the Fatherland Party. A coalition is formed post-election between parties and alliances in order to form a ruling government. An example would be the most likely coalition that we will see: the one between Հայաստան alliance, Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance, and ԲՀԿ.

• Parliamentary seats will be divided among parties and alliances that have cleared the necessary thresholds, based on the percentages of votes receives. Meaning as it stands (Scenario I), with ԼՀԿ and ՀԿ not clearing the necessary thresholds, the ruling party would receive 40.0 percent of parliamentary seats, losing control of the government (Scenario I). The Հայաստան alliance along with Պատիվ Ունեմ and ԲՀԿ would collectively receive some 60.0 percent of parliamentary seats, taking control of the government.

I explained previously in a facebook post, that it is highly likely that the voters are not yet familiar with the name of the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance, and that they are responding with ՀԿ, when they in fact mean ՀՀԿ, one of the two parties composing the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance. The fact that ՀԿ saw inexplicable and unprecedented support in the first two polls in which the name ՀՀԿ did not appear supports this theory. As voters become familiar with the name of the new alliance, it should be expected that the numbers for the Պատիվ Ունեմ alliance will increase.

This prediction has so far proven to be true as last week Պատիվ Ունեմ saw a significant increase in its share of the vote, while ՀԿ saw a significant decrease. That theory seemed further legitimized four days ago, when the “Inter-Action” poll which did not have ՀԿ as an option, showed a very strong showing for Պատիվ Ունեմ.

ՀՀԿ chairman Serzh Sargsyan at a Պատիվ Ունեմ campaign event

And the theory continues to hold and is now looking highly accurate as Պատիվ Ունեմ has once again seen an increase in its numbers, with ՀԿ quickly fading out of the picture. As it stands, I will stop including ՀԿ In future updates, unless something changes drastically. (Please note that the Շիրինյան-Բաբաջանյան alliance came in at 2.5% compared to 2.3% for ՀԿ, but I did not include them in my numbers as they are still much farther away from the seven percent threshold needed for alliances than ՀԿ Is to the five percent threshold required for parties.)

In the less likely scenario that ԼՀԿ also clears the five percent required minimum threshold (Scenario II), the new Robert Kocharyan led opposition trio can expect to receive some 57.1 percent of seats in parliament.

Scenario II

I had previously stated that this election could be decided by the performance of the potential junior partners Պատիվ Ունեմ, ԼՀԿ, and ՀԿ. Moreover, I had specifically stated that Պատիվ Ունեմ managing to enter parliament would likely be the decisive factor in an opposition victory, regardless of how the other two smaller parties performed. The two most recent polls seem to have answered that question decisively, as Պատիվ Ունեմ has surged significantly past its required minimum threshold. I would feel very confident now in saying that Պատիվ Ունեմ will almost certainly be in the next Armenian parliament.

Aspram Krpeyan, Oxford graduate, daughter of National Hero Tatul Krpeyan, and number 33 candidate on the list of the Հայաստան alliance, speaking in Ashtarak, at a campaign stop in her native Aragatsotn region

Furthermore, the opposition is now surpassing certain numbers that almost puts the election beyond the realistic possibility of manipulation. With a twenty percent lead, the government would need to stuff some 200,000 votes in order to achieve victory, something that is logistically impossible. Moreover, such a lead would make the possibility of cancelling or delaying elections much less possible to sell to the public. As it stands, the opposition has a 16.4 percent lead.

Finally, it can now be said with a high degree of confidence that the results of the latest MPG/Gallup Int. numbers would seem to validate the data released four days ago by the Ukrainian NGO “Inter-Action”, especially as it pertained to Պատիվ Ունեմ.

At this point, based on my understanding of statistics and mathematics, I can say with a very high degree of confidence that Robert Kocharyan will be the next prime minister of Armenia.