Frustrated and sad, Rosalía Shahbekyán wonders how the hope and optimism that flooded much of Armenia three years ago could be diluted in such a short time, when a popular mobilization against political elites after the elections brought populist and reformist Nikol Pashinián to power. Shahbekyán, with almond-shaped dark eyes and 33 years old, grew up and was educated outside the small country of the southern Caucasus and nurtured the Armenian diaspora of millions of people around the world. As he tries to cool off from the soporific heat of Yerevan by sipping Tan, a special Armenian recipe liquid yogurt, he says he returned to the capital in 2016. Like many other young people, he participated in the so-called “velvet revolution”. “At that time the discontent was so great that the general feeling was that it did not matter who came to power, the important thing is that the usual people leave,” he says.

Pashinián was appointed Prime Minister of Armenia (2.9 million inhabitants) in 2018, after peaceful riots and with promises to fight corruption and evict the old families that had held the most juicy government posts for decades. Three years later, weakened after losing the Nagorno Karabakh war in 2020 to Azerbaijan, which has triggered a political and social crisis in Armenia, Pashinian is measured in the snap elections that take place tomorrow with some of those old school politicians in elections in which the war of Nagorno Karabakh flies over everything.

Close to 6,000 people have died in the latest escalation of the conflict, which erupted in September 2020. And Armenia has had to give up control of large areas that it had dominated since the 1990s in the mountainous enclave, still populated and controlled by mostly Armenians today. , but internationally recognized as Azerbaijan and with claims of self-determination (to become the Republic of Artsakh). “Emotionally it has been devastating,” Shahbekyán laments, in perfect Spanish: he studied in Galicia, worked in the tourism sector and is now reinventing himself, after the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Pashinián has not had time to cover many of the promised reforms, says the woman, who believes, however, that Armenian society is now more open, less conservative on social rights issues due to the government’s more liberal vision.

The latest polls indicate as favorites Pashinián and former President Robert Korcharián (1998-2008), a wealthy businessman, close friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and with a reputation as a strong man, who campaigns to “bring the country out of chaos.” . Originally from Nagorno Karabakh, where he fought in the first enclave war in the 1990s, he ranks 24th on the lists with almost 30 candidates for prime minister in which there are no women. Two other former presidents are also participating in elections that could mean the return of the old elites to politics.

The results are expected to be very tight, says analyst Nikolai Torosyán. The polarization, anger and division between political groups is enormous and observers fear that strong protests will break out after the elections, with supporters of the loser in the streets and a winner who does not have a sufficient percentage to imbue himself with legitimacy before the whole. citizenship.

The general trend in the opposition is that the fault of the defeat in the Nagorno Karabakh war lies with Pashinyan, explains Torosyan in a modern cafe in the center of Yerevan, the capital, which contrasts with old sand-colored buildings in the area. Even Pashinián described the agreement as “disastrous”, but stressed that he had been forced to sign it to avoid greater territorial and human losses. Since then, protests have followed. Even what the prime minister defined as an attempted coup by some army chiefs. The pressure has been immense.

“Critics assure that Pashinián has proven to be a weak politician who cannot negotiate or manage a government; while Pashinián’s supporters emphasize that the problem is inherited, that it has to do with the corruption of previous administrations and their bad negotiations, ”says the journalist and analyst, drowned in cigarette smoke: in Armenia it is allowed to smoke indoors and tobacco is also on the menu in most restaurants. “This is a choice between the corrupt but professional, and others cleaner, but not professional,” says Torosyán.

Russia is closely watching the outcome of the elections. It has a military base in Armenia, which has always been a close ally. Although Pashinian has had somewhat colder relations with the Kremlin than its predecessors. Hence some also blame him for not getting more support from Moscow in the war.

While the supporters of each other leave at dusk, to the last political events, Rudi Kalousián prepares to open his bar, EVN, a rock venue in the center of Yerevan. Define the political campaign as a “puppet show.” Will not vote. He has never voted. He believes that all politicians in Armenia are more of the same. “Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, when Armenia became a republic, there has been no normal government. Only corrupt politicians who worry about their pockets or staying in office, “says the 39-year-old businessman.

Kalousian opened EVN, decorated with baseball paintings, Marvel comics and portraits of artists like Jimi Hendrix, about four years ago. Now he has put it up for sale. “Before the revolution we were drowned by bribes. Now, there are no bites but we are suffocated by taxes, ”he says. EVN closed for five months at the peak of the pandemic. State aid for the crisis was a single payment of 120 euros. “It was so ridiculous that I had a barbecue with my friends to celebrate the irony,” says Kalousián, who defines himself as a “patriot.” Disenchanted, he believes that the solution for the country would be to have someone from the great Armenian diaspora (about eight million) head the government, who has known another way of doing things and has a rich and diverse political background.

Retired jurist Surén Mamikonyan has come over to put a couple of candles in the Zoravor Surp Astvatsatsin Orthodox Church, the oldest in Yerevan, which was home to the 13th century Zoravor bible. He is dressed like a paintbrush, a polka dot tie and a plaid jacket under a 35-degree sun. He is 70 years old, he says that he has lived and seen a lot and believes that, like other times, Armenia will recover quickly from this crisis. “Armenia is at the center of a turbulent geopolitical map, surrounded by carnivorous neighbors who have threatened us for years, who wanted to leave a single Armenian as a sample in a museum, but who only managed to spread it around the world with a huge diaspora,” he says. . And he adds: “Difficulties do not matter. The spirit of the Armenians is unbreakable ”.