ArmInfo.The current situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border seems to be a logical consequence of the Karabakh war lost by Armenia. An expert on the South Caucasus, Andrei Areshev, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"It is clear that the events on the eastern borders of Armenia in the period after May 12 are a rather serious problem, including for Russia. Taking into account the responsibility for the protection of the Armenian borders. However, the same order to the Armenian military not to shoot at border violators raises certain questions in Moscow to those people who are addressing Russia and the CSTO with calls for intervention. Security for Yerevan is a key priority issue, which it cannot solve without trusting interaction with Moscow. In this light, the restoration of trusting ties that existed in the 2000s between Armenia and Russia, primarily in the security sector, seems to have no alternative, "he stressed.
Against this background, Russian priorities in the region, according to Areshev, are by no means limited to Armenia. As an ally of Armenia in the CSTO, Russia is the co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. And it is quite a serious partner for Azerbaijan. Noting the significant decline in Russian influence in Azerbaijan as a fact, the expert attributed this fact to the constant deepening of the agenda of relations between Baku and Ankara. And the "Shusha Declaration" signed by Erdogan and Aliyev is the latest evidence of this.
According to the expert, the Caucasian policy and the Armenian agenda are undoubtedly important in the foreign policy of Russia, but not the main one. And for the Armenian agenda to come to the fore on the agenda of Moscow, Armenia, in his opinion, needs to acquire subjectivity. "We understand very well that, in anticipation of Russian intervention in the situation on the Armenian side, Yerevan is holding behind the scenes certain negotiations with Baku. In this light, for obvious reasons, Moscow cannot have sufficient reasons for active intervention in the situation," he stressed.
"I think that the issue can and should be resolved through the restoration of mutually beneficial trusting relations. The institutions of the Armenian statehood have lost a lot since 2018, however, there is certainly a chance of restoring both these institutions and relations with Russia. It is also possible to return to negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, of course, in worse positions for Armenia than those that existed before September 27, 2020. There are also chances for the return of Hadrut and the solution of the Shushi issue. All this is due to the prospect of a change in the leadership of Armenia following the results of the upcoming elections. Because the current leadership has left the solution of the Karabakh issue to the mercy of fate. It simply stepped back, leaving Karabakh at the disposal of Russia, Turkey and Azerbaijan, "the Russian expert summed up.