Friday, October 8, 2021 World Bank Ups Armenian Growth Forecast Armenia - A construction site in Yerevan, July 2, 2021. Armenia’s economy is on course to grow by just over 6 percent this year after contracting sharply last year, according to the World Bank. “The economic recovery in 2021 has been faster than anticipated, and the economy is likely to return to pre-COVID output levels by mid-2022,” the bank said in a report released this week. “Following a faster-than-expected recovery in [the first half of the year,] the projected GDP growth rate for 2021 has been revised to 6.1 percent, up from 3.4 percent in April 2021,” it said, adding that the economic upswing will continue to be primarily driven by private consumption. The International Monetary Fund has also signaled a significant improvement of its economic outlook for Armenia. A senior IMF official, Nathan Porter, forecast last month a 6.5 percent growth rate after holding virtual talks with Armenian officials. The Armenian economy shrunk by 7.6 percent last year due to the coronavirus pandemic and the war with Azerbaijan. The Armenian government had projected modest economic recovery until this spring. It now expects much faster growth not only in 2021 but also in the coming years. The government’s five-year policy program approved by the parliament in August says GDP should increase by 7 percent annually. And a draft state budget unveiled by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s cabinet last week commits Armenian tax authorities to increasing state revenue by as much as 25 percent in 2022. This would not only finance a 15 percent rise in public spending but also cut the country’s budget deficit that widened significantly during last year’s recession. The World Bank report says, however, that Armenian growth will likely slow down to 4.8 percent next year and only slightly accelerate in 2023. It also lists “downside risks” to this scenario: “limited progress in COVID-19 vaccinations, rising COVID-19 cases, geopolitical tensions, and a delayed recovery among major trading partners.” The IMF’s Porter sounded a similar note of caution: “Downside risks remain elevated, including from geopolitical tensions, a slowdown in external demand, and heightened global financial market volatility.” Investigators Withhold Details After Former Defense Minister’s Arrest • Artak Khulian Armenia -- Armenian Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan at a news conference in Yerevan, April 9, 2019. Armenia’s National Security Service (NSS) has refused to shed more light on corruption charges brought by it against former Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan, two generals and an arms dealer arrested in recent weeks. Tonoyan and businessman Davit Galstian were remanded in pre-trial custody on September 30 after being charged with fraud and embezzlement that cost the state almost 2.3 billion drams ($4.7 million). Both men rejected the charges and asked Armenia’s Court of Appeals to set them free. The two other suspects are a deputy chief of the Armenian army’s General Staff and the commander of its Air Force. The NSS claims that the generals abused their powers to arrange for personal gain a $4.7 million contract for the supply of outdated rockets to the armed forces. The security service said last month that a private intermediary, presumably owned by Galstian, delivered those rockets to Armenia in 2011 and that the Defense Ministry refused to buy them after discovering that they are unusable. It has yet to clarify just when the ministry changed its mind and decided to purchase the faulty ammunition. Seyran Ohanian, Armenia’s defense minister from 2008 to 2016, again insisted on Friday that the rockets were not accepted by the military during his tenure. Ohanian, who is now a senior opposition lawmaker, said the rebuff forced their supplier to store them at a Defense Ministry arms depot. “The supplier was obliged to obtain an [export] license and decide their fate over the next years,” he told a news conference. “But my guess is that the company failed to get the license because the rockets were faulty. You should ask them, not me, about that.” Armenia -- Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Defense Minister Davit Tonoyan sit in the cockpit of a Su-30SM fighter jet at an airbase in Gyumri, December 27, 2019. The NSS questioned Ohanian as a witness in the case earlier this year. It refused on Friday to clarify whether Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian will also be summoned for questioning. Citing the secrecy of the ongoing probe, the NSS also declined to specify the date of the supply contract signed by the Defense Ministry or give other details. Pashinian appointed Tonoyan as defense minister days after coming to power in May 2018. Tonoyan was sacked in November 2020 less than two weeks after a Russian-brokered agreement stopped the Armenian-Azerbaijani war over Nagorno-Karabakh. Some senior pro-Pashinian parliamentarians blamed him for Armenia’s defeat in the six-week war. The prime minister faced angry opposition demonstrations at the time. Ruling Party, Opposition Deadlocked Over Parliament Post • Gayane Saribekian Armenia - Artur Ghazinian of the opposition Hayastan bloc attends a meeting of the Armenian parliament committee on defense and security, September 22, 2021 The ruling Civil Contract party confirmed on Friday plans to pass legislation that would block further attempts to install an outspoken opposition lawmaker as deputy chairman of a key standing committee of Armenia’s parliament. Armenian law entitles opposition members to heading three of the 12 parliament committees. It stipulates that the deputy chairpersons of several other parliamentary panels should also represent the opposition minority in the National Assembly. The main opposition Hayastan alliance nominated this summer one of its deputies, Artur Ghazinian, as deputy head of the parliament committee on defense and security. He was also backed by the Pativ Unem bloc, the second parliamentary opposition force. Seven members of the 11-member committee representing Civil Contract first blocked Ghazinian’s appointment on August 31. Hayastan responded by re-nominating him for the vacant post for five more times. On each of those occasions, the pro-government deputies voted against Ghazinian after attacking him during tense committee meetings. Some of them cited Ghazinian’s harsh criticism of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian’s handling of last year’s war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Ghazinian has continued to hold Pashinian responsible for Armenia’s defeat in the six-week war that left at least 3,800 Armenian soldiers dead. Hayastan and Pativ Unem have made clear that they will continue to back his candidacy. Vahagn Aleksanian, a Civil Contract deputy, said on Friday that the pro-government majority has started drafting amendments to the parliament’s statutes which would not allow parliamentary groups to nominate the same lawmaker for a vacant post for more than two times. Pativ Unem’s Tigran Abrahamian denounced the initiative. “It’s not the authorities’ whims that must determine who will be our candidate for the position,” he told journalists. Aleksanian said there are “many reasons” why Ghazinian’s appointment is unacceptable to Pashinian’s party. In particular, he said, Ghazinian did not serve in the Armenian army and lacks “elementary” knowledge of military issues. Aleksanian downplayed the fact that Pashinian too did not serve in the armed forces. Under the Armenian constitution, the prime minister becomes the army’s commander-in-chief in times of war. Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL Copyright (c) 2021 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc. 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.