What Happened: Armenia abandoned two domestic military positions in the deadliest flare-up between itself and Azerbaijan since last year’s war over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, Eurasianet reported Nov. 16. Armenian sources reported that at least 15 soldiers were killed and 12 taken prisoner, and the number of Azerbaijani casualties is unclear.
 
Why It Matters: This escalation prompted Armenia to formally appeal to Russia for military assistance under the 1997 bilateral defense treaty, and Russian troops stationed in Armenia were allegedly moved to full combat readiness. The seizure of Armenian land appears to be a long-planned Azerbaijani provocation intended to pressure Armenia into favorable terms as the two nations reportedly finalize long-awaited border and transportation agreements. In combination with Armenia’s already-precarious domestic security situation, Azerbaijan’s strategy may be effective.
 
Background: Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claims Azerbaijani armed forces have occupied 41 square kilometers of Armenia's territory since May as part of a pressure campaign. Azerbaijan is reportedly using the road it seized last year, which runs from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh, as a bargaining chip to gain customs-free access to the corridor connecting the country to its Nakhchivan exclave. In February, Pashinyan averted an "attempted military coup" when military leaders called on him to resign following months of protests over his widely criticized handling of the war. Russia brokered a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan last year, which resulted in Armenia’s evacuation of most of the disputed region and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers.