Nov 17, 2021 | 20:22 GMT
What Happened: Russia brokered a ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan on Nov. 16 after heavy fighting that resulted in the largest number of casualties since last year’s war, Eurasianet reported Nov. 17.
Why It Matters: The fighting took place along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border near Lake Sev in areas Azerbaijan claims are without clear borders. Armenia will be restrained in its response to Azerbaijani attacks, as the country is likely unwilling to risk another war. Russia’s failure to take meaningful action to defend Armenia from Azerbaijani attacks and occupation erodes the legitimacy of Russia’s security commitments to Armenia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a Eurasian intergovernmental military alliance. Azerbaijan’s attacks will strengthen the country’s negotiating position in ongoing talks with Armenia regarding border demarcation and transportation agreements. Azerbaijan is therefore likely to test Russia’s limits through continued attacks on Armenia and stop only when Russian troops deploy or respond with force.
Background: On Nov. 16, Armenia abandoned two domestic military positions in the deadliest flare-up between itself and Azerbaijan since last year’s war over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, Eurasianet reported Nov. 16. 15 Armenians died and 12 were captured in the clash, and seven Azerbaijanis were killed and 10 were wounded. This escalation prompted Armenia to formally appeal to Russia for military assistance under the 1997 bilateral defense treaty, and Russian troops stationed in Armenia were allegedly moved to full combat readiness.