Tuesday, Another French Presidential Candidate Visits Armenia Armenia - Armenian President Armen Sarkissian meets with Valerie Pecresse, a Fench presidential candidate and head of Ile de France region, . Valerie Pecresse, a French conservative politician emerging as President Emmanuel Macron’s main challenger in next year’s presidential elections, pledged continued support for Armenia when she visited the country on Tuesday. Pecresse met with President Armen Sarkissian, Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, parliament speaker Alen Simonian and Catholicos Garegin II, the supreme head of the Armenian Apostolic Church. Official Armenian press releases on the separate meetings indicated that she was received in her capacity as head of the Ile de France region of greater Paris. The region is home to a large part of France’s influential Armenian community numbering some 600,000 people. French presidential candidates will vie for their votes during the tight presidential race. A new poll released over the weekend showed Pecresse as the likely challenger to Macron in the second round of the elections slated for April 2022. They were trailed by two far-right candidates, Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen. Zemmour chose Armenia for his first campaign trip which he took a week ago. The former journalist known for his controversial statements against Islam and immigration urged strong Western support for what he described as a Christian nation situated “in the middle of an Islamic ocean.” Unlike Pecresse, Zemmour was not received by high-ranking Armenian officials. He met with several senior parliamentarians representing Armenia’s ruling party. Armenia -- French far-right party "Reconquete!" leader, media pundit and candidate for the 2022 French presidential election Eric Zemmour in downtown Yerevan on December 12, 2021. During her trip Pecresse was accompanied by former French Foreign Minister Michel Barnier and Bruno Retailleau, who leads the conservative Les Republicains party’s group in the French Senate. Pecresse won early this month the opposition party’s primary to be its presidential candidate. Sarkissian described her as a “good friend of Armenia and the Armenian people.” The Pecresse campaign’s Twitter page said they spoke for two hours to “evoke the strong ties between Armenia and France.” The president and the other Armenian leaders also discussed with Pecresse the aftermath of last year’s war in Nagorno-Karabakh. While in Yerevan Pecresse laid flowers at the Armenian genocide memorial and the Yerablur military cemetery where hundreds of Armenian soldiers killed during the six-week war were buried. “What happened to Armenia last year is a warning that we would be wrong to assume that this does not concern us,” Julien Neny, a French journalist covering the trip, quoted her as saying afterwards. Pecresse also told reporters that if elected president she will organize “an international conference in Paris in support of Armenia.” FRANCE -- French President Emmanuel Macron, left, welcomes Armenian acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian before a working lunch at the Elysee Palace in Paris, June 1, 2021 Her visit coincided with Macron’s 44th birthday anniversary. In a congratulatory message sent on Tuesday, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian wished the French president “unwavering will, strength and unshakable faith to lead the French people to new victorious horizons.” “I assure you that in that high mission, Armenia stands with your and friendly France, ready to defend the common values, universal rights and civilizational heritage that unite us,” Pashinian wrote. Macron and Pashinian most recently met in Brussels on December 15 during trilateral talks with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. “We will never abandon the Armenians,” Macron tweeted after the meeting. “We will always seek solutions for a lasting peace.” Pashinian’s Choice Of Negotiator With Turkey Criticized • Gayane Saribekian • Nane Sahakian Armenia - Deputy speaker Ruben Rubinian chairs a session of the National Assembly, Yerevan, October 5, 2021 Armenian analysts and opposition politicians have criticized Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian for appointing a 31-year-old political ally lacking diplomatic experience to represent Armenia in upcoming negotiations with Turkey. The Armenian and Turkish governments said last week that they will try to normalize relations between the two neighboring states and will name special envoys for that purpose. Ankara went on to choose Serdar Kilic, a career diplomat who served as Turkey’s ambassador to the United States from 2014-2021, for that role. For its part, the Armenian side named Ruben Rubinian, a deputy speaker of the parliament and senior member of Pashinian’s Civil Contract party. Rubinian was appointed as a deputy foreign minister following the 2018 “velvet revolution” that brought Pashinian to power. He resigned from that post eight months later after being elected to Armenia’s former parliament. Rubinian headed the parliament committee on foreign relations until snap general elections held in June this year. In August, he became one of the current National Assembly’s three vice-speakers. Pashinian has not yet explained his decision to handpick a young loyalist, rather than a professional diplomat, to lead the planned talks with the Turks. The move has been construed by some as a sign of his distrust in the Armenian Foreign Ministry. Pashinian has replaced two foreign ministers, both of them career diplomats, over the past year. One of them, Ara Ayvazian, signaled serious policy disagreements with the prime minister when he resigned in May. All of Ayvazian’s four deputies also tendered their resignations. Armenia - Outgoing Foreign Minister Ara Ayvazian addresses Armenian Foreign Ministry staff during a fairwell meeting in Yerevan, May 31, 2021. Lawmakers representing the main opposition Hayastan alliance on Monday expressed concern over Pashinian’s choice of the special envoy. They questioned Rubinian’s competence and ability to properly negotiate with his far more experienced Turkish opposite number. Some Armenian pundits shared the opposition concerns on Tuesday. “I don’t think that Rubinian is the most brilliant candidate [for the role,]” said Armen Baghdasarian, a veteran political commentator. “Moreover, I believe he can botch any initiative.” “He is not a diplomat,” warned Ruben Safrastian, a leading expert on Turkey at the Armenian National Academy of Sciences. “It will be difficult for him to negotiate with an experienced diplomat like Serdar Kilic.” Armen Khachatrian, a senior lawmaker from the ruling party, dismissed these concerns. “You don’t become a parliament speaker, chairman of the parliament committee on foreign relations and a deputy foreign minister at such a young age for no reason,” Khachatrian told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service. “This means the guy has that capacity and potential.” Rubinian refused on Monday to answer questions about his new mission. Meanwhile, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that the Armenian and Turkish negotiators will hold their first meeting soon. But he gave no concrete dates. U.S. -- Turkish Ambassador to the United States Serdar Kilic speaks to the Conference on U.S.-Turkey Relations in Washington, May 22, 2017 Cavusoglu also reiterated that Turkey will continue to coordinate its policy towards Armenia with Azerbaijan. Ankara has for decades refused to establish diplomatic relations with Yerevan and kept the Turkish-Armenian border closed out of solidarity with Azerbaijan. It provided decisive military support to Baku during last year’s Armenian-Azerbaijani war over Nagorno-Karabakh. In recent months Turkish leaders have made statements making the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations conditional on Armenia agreeing to open a land corridor that would connect Azerbaijan to its Nakhichevan exclave. They have also cited Baku’s demands for a formal Armenian recognition of Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh. Armenian opposition figures and other government critics say that Ankara is continuing to set unacceptable preconditions for Yerevan. They claim that Pashinian may be ready to accept them. Baghdasarian echoed those claims. “I also don’t think that Pashinian can clearly define the current agenda of Turkish-Armenian relations because he seems ready to cede practically everything,” he said. IMF Expects Slower Growth In Armenia • Emil Danielyan U.S. -- An exterior view of the building of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is seen in Washington, March 27, 2020 Armenia’s economy will likely grow in the coming years more slowly than the Armenian government has predicted, according to the International Monetary Fund. “Going forward, the economic outlook is generally positive with medium-term growth projected around 4.5-5 percent, contingent upon the COVID-19 developments, external demand, and progress on structural reforms implementation,” the IMF said in a statement issued late last week. The government’s five-year policy program approved by the Armenian parliament in August says that the country’s GDP should increase by 7 percent annually. The Armenian economy contracted by 7.4 percent last year due to adverse effects of the coronavirus pandemic compounded by the war in Nagorno-Karabakh. It returned to growth this spring. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian said in July that GDP growth will reach 6 percent this year. The IMF and the World Bank forecast more modest growth rates afterwards. “An economic rebound is now underway, with projected growth of around 5.5 percent in 2021,” read the latest IMF statement. The governor of Armenia’s Central Bank, Martin Galstian, predicted on December 14 an even lower growth rate for this year: 4.2 percent. Presenting the bank’s latest projections, he said growth should accelerate to 5.3 percent in 2022. Armenia’s 2022 state budget approved by the parliament earlier this month is based on a 7 percent growth target set by Pashinian’s government. It calls for significant increases in public spending and tax revenue. Opposition politicians and some economists say the government targets are not realistic. Armenia - Workers at a new textile factory in Gyumri, December 7, 2018. As well as predicting slower growth, the IMF praised the government’s five-year program and, in particular, reforms envisaged by it. It also said the Armenian authorities “appropriately responded” to the 2020 recession. “The Fund’s financial support will help Armenia meet its challenges -- including the social and economic implications of COVID-19 pandemic -- while moving ahead with its reform agenda,” added the statement. The IMF made its latest growth projections as it announced the disbursement of a fresh $72 million installment of a $432 million Stand-By Arrangement, a loan designed to help Armenia cope with economic consequences of the pandemic. The loan tranche brought to about $396 million the total amount of funds allocated to the country under the three-year lending program launched in May 2019. Azeri Soldiers Captured, Freed By Armenia • Astghik Bedevian Armenia - Armenian soldiers take up positions on the border with Azerbaijan, December 20, 2020. The Armenian military released and repatriated two Azerbaijani soldiers late on Monday two days after capturing them on Armenia’s border with Azerbaijan. The Defense Ministry in Yerevan said they were detained at an Armenian border post on Saturday. It gave no details. A short amateur video circulated online earlier on Monday showed Armenian military personnel handcuffing the Azerbaijani soldiers and putting them in a military truck parked at what looked like an army outpost. A ministry statement said they were sent back to Azerbaijan “for humanitarian considerations and with Russian mediation.” Russian peacekeeping forces stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh confirmed the handover on their Telegram page on Tuesday. They also posted pictures of Armenian, Azerbaijani and Russian officers sitting at a table and signing a document in the presence of the freed soldiers. The latter were reportedly captured at a border section close to the scene of the November 16 fighting between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces that left at least 13 troops from both sides dead. Three dozen Armenian soldiers were taken prisoner that day in what Yerevan condemned as an Azerbaijani attack on Armenian territory. Twenty-one of those soldiers have been set free since then. The eleven others remain detained in Azerbaijan. Opposition leaders strongly criticized the Armenian authorities for not swapping the two Azerbaijanis with these or other Armenian prisoners of war held by Baku. The authorities declined to clearly explain their decision to swiftly free the Azerbaijani soldiers. “Why were the two [Azerbaijani] POWs sent back? Let our security bodies not divulge any details to you,” Andranik Kocharian, the pro-government chairman of the Armenian parliament committee on defense and security, told journalists. “If the [Azerbaijani] POWs were handed over to the enemy, it means that there is something there stemming from our interests,” Kocharian said vaguely. Aram Vartevanian, a lawmaker from the main opposition Hayastan bloc, argued that Baku is continuing to hold dozens of Armenian POWs in breach of Russian-mediated agreements reached during and after last year’s war over Nagorno-Karabakh. “When our adversary behaves this way, how can the Armenian authorities’ behavior be explained?” he said. “I would call it … yet another toothless action by these authorities.” Reprinted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL Copyright (c) 2021 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc. 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.