What is happening between Armenia and Azerbaijan, where is Russia and why the story of Nagorno-Karabakh is not over.
Source: focus.ua
A pagan temple near the village of Garni, built in the 1st century. n. e. Armenian King Trdat I is the only monument of the Hellenistic era that has survived on the territory of Armenia. It seems as if he was brought here by the wind from Greece, and he, clinging to the top of a picturesque rock, hovers over the gorge. Along the entire width of the facade, erected from huge basalt blocks, there are nine massive steps 30 cm high. Climbing them is not easy, but a stunning view of the gorge opens up from above. Through the sharp gusts of wind from somewhere below, the booming noise of the mountain river Azat is heard. Going down to it, you find yourself surrounded by basalt pillars-hexahedrons, the power and magnificence of which fascinate. This natural monument is called here a symphony of stones or a basalt organ – so harmoniously stretched out its & # 171; pipes & # 187;.
In general, Armenia is a small country. Its area is about 29.8 thousand square meters. km – a little more than the Poltava region. But the sights are countless here. Echmiadzin alone is worth something! For Armenians, this spiritual center and the residence of the head of the Armenian Apostolic Church is like the Vatican for Catholics. But it was Armenia in the IV century that became the first country in the world to adopt Christianity as a state religion.
On November 16, 2021, the most tough confrontation took place on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan since the end of the Second Karabakh War. The total losses of the parties – 13 people
FROM LOCAL BASALT. This is the only surviving monument of the Hellenistic era in Armenia located 28 km from Yerevan, near the village of Garni
Photo: Stanislav Miroshnichenko
Echmiadzin literally translates from ancient Armenian as & # 171; descended the Only Begotten & # 187 ;. According to legend, in this place Christ appeared to St. Gregory, descending from heaven. In memory of that event, a cathedral was built here in 303. In addition to him and the residence of the Catholicos, there is a museum on the territory. In it, among other things, the spear of Longinus, the Roman soldier, who, as it is written in the Gospel of John, pierced Jesus Christ with it, is exhibited. In general, in the world, in addition to Echmiadzin, there are three more peaks claiming the title of Longinus' spear: in the Vatican, Vienna and Krakow. But, according to the staff of the local museum, the metal of only their spears dates back to the 1st century. n. e., that is, the time when Christ lived.
It is only 20 km from Echmiadzin to the capital of Armenia. The journey takes about half an hour. We arrived in Yerevan on November 16, in the midst of the most powerful military confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the end of the Second Karabakh War. It lasted 44 days, ending with the victory of Baku, which regained control over most of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, which had been lost more than a quarter of a century ago. But if a year ago the battles were fought on its territory, now it is on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan. On this day, the clash lasted six hours and, according to the official data of the parties, claimed the lives of six Armenians and seven Azerbaijanis.
The presence of the Russian military in the region most likely guarantees Armenia that the fighting on its borders with Azerbaijan will not escalate into a full-scale war
When entering the capital from the airport on the left, on a high hill, you can see a military pantheon & # 171; Yerablur & # 187; where the national heroes of Armenia are buried. The countless number of flags installed on fresh graves reminds of the wounds of the Second Karabakh War. Those who died on November 16 will be buried here.
In the evening, with a colleague, we go to the center of the capital on Republic Square, where a large crowd, mostly men, has gathered. While some are heatedly discussing what happened, others are silent, nervously smoking cigarette after cigarette. But it is their silence, louder than any dispute, that shows what is happening with the Armenian society. Alexander Iskanderian, director of the Caucasus Institute, with whom we will meet the next day, describes this state very accurately. According to him, Armenia is still in a state of shock from a lost war, while Azerbaijan, in the wake of euphoria, is trying to make the most of its victory, biting off resources, territories, diplomatic formats, etc.
& # 171; The agreement of November 9 last year is not a peace agreement. This is a suspension of fire, says Iskanderian to Focus. – There is only one point about post-conflict development. It's about communication. But what is communication is a big question & # 187 ;.
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ALEXANDER ISKANDERYAN. Director of the Caucasus Institute believes that Armenia has no alternative to cooperation with Russia
Photo: Stanislav Miroshnichenko
Exactly at midnight, street lighting disappears in Yerevan. The city, with the exception of the main streets, is plunged into darkness. The road to the hotel, which is located in the very center, not far from Republic Square, has to be illuminated with a smartphone. That night I can't sleep for a long time, I try to understand what happened, and when I finally fall asleep, I immediately wake up, go to the huge window, pull the curtains and see a police car slowly driving along the hotel. Turned on flashing beacons are reflected in the building facades in blue and red light.
Early in the morning I leave for the city. I want to see how much of yesterday's events changed him. The fact is that after the end of the Second Karabakh war, Azerbaijan has repeatedly stated that it has no territorial claims to Armenia itself, but this issue is obviously not closed. In the center of awakening Yerevan, everything is calm, except that the police have noticeably increased in case it is necessary to calm down the crowd. Now it is not there, but who knows what will happen in an hour or two – the Armenian society is split, the opposition is strong, although it lost the early parliamentary elections in June this year. Most of those who came out to the square yesterday are its supporters.
& # 171; The culprit of the defeat continues to represent the country in the international arena, – said Hayk Mamidzhanyan, secretary of the parliamentary faction of the opposition bloc & # 171; I have the honor & # 187;, in a commentary to the newspaper & # 171; Kommersant & # 187 ;. – There is no trust in him. Nikol Pashinyan is a time bomb under Armenian national interests & # 187 ;.
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THE LAST HOSPITAL. A year ago, the Second Karabakh War claimed the lives of several thousand Armenians, but the military cemetery & # 171; Yerablur & # 187; continues to expand
Photo: Stanislav Miroshnichenko
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FIRST ANNIVERSARY OF THE WAR. A rally demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Yerevan, November 8, 2021
Photo: Getty Images
In general, street protests are the most important element of Armenian politics, its engine. It was the street that brought the current Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to power in 2018. Now the problem is that his party and opposition cannot work out a common positive agenda. This is typical of the entire post-Soviet space, where the winner, by definition, takes it all. When Focus asked about what the politicians could unite around, Hrachya Hakobyan and Hayk Tsirunyan, members of the parliamentary faction of power & # 171; Civil Agreement & # 187; name only one circumstance – the security of Armenia. Otherwise, they admit, there is a lot of disagreement.
Nevertheless, it is precisely security that remains the subject of the most heated debate. The opposition does not agree with the desire of Prime Minister Pashinyan to delimit the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan as soon as possible. Its delimitation and demarcation is one of the most difficult problems of the two countries, diplomatic relations between which have not yet been established. The need for delimitation is relevant not only here, but also for most states of the former USSR, including Russia and Kazakhstan (the world's largest continuous land border with a length of 7548 km), Ukraine and Belarus, Ukraine and Russia. In the Caucasus, the marking is complicated by the specificity of the relief. This is especially true for Armenia, 90% of whose territory is located at an altitude of more than 1,000 meters above sea level. When, last year, as a result of the won war in Nagorno-Karabakh, the Azerbaijani military reached the borders of Armenia, it turned out that it was not only not marked, but also not strengthened, so attempts to define it by force are inevitable.
Armenia is still in a state of shock from the war lost a year ago. Azerbaijan, on a wave of euphoria, is trying to choose the most from its victory
To an outside observer, it may seem that with a mutual desire for peace, Armenia and Azerbaijan (its President Ilham Aliyev also declares this need) should easily draw borders. But this is unreal. The reason is the same – the terrain. If somewhere in the steppe it is not so difficult to reach a compromise on the conditional 100 m to the left or to the right, then in the mountains it is important to control the heights. In this sense, 100 or even 20 m are often decisive.
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SPEAR LONGINA. According to the Gospel of John, the Roman soldier Longinus pierced Jesus Christ with this spear. The relic is kept in Etchmiadzin
Photo: Stanislav Miroshnichenko
Russia undertook to ensure the process of delimitation. Its peacekeepers entered the region following the results of last year's war, preventing the surrender of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. It is important for Russia that the border of Armenia with Azerbaijan is as stable as possible, otherwise it is she who has to solve the problems that arise here. In this issue, the interests of the Russian Federation and Armenia coincide. But where this border will pass, the Russians, according to the director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskanderyan, do not care. And here the interests of the allies diverge. At the same time, Yerevan cannot dictate conditions to Moscow. The events of the last year showed Armenia's absolute dependence on Russia. International analysts, who are familiar with the situation from within, do not undertake to talk about whether this is bad or good, since Armenia has no alternative to alliance with the Russian Federation.
“All ideas that Russia can be replaced by someone else, for example France or the United States, are not very serious,” explains Alexander Iskanderian. – During the Second Karabakh War, both Macron and Trump spoke out, everyone was very moved. But only those two countries came here that are really interested in our region. They are called Turkey and Russia. Everything. And it does not depend on how the Armenians relate to these countries & # 187 ;.
It is important
To overthrow Pashinyan. Does Armenia have good scenarios for overcoming the crisis?
The presence of the Russian military is likely to guarantee Armenia that the fighting on its borders with Azerbaijan will not escalate into a full-scale war, otherwise the enemy will have to fight with Russia. But it is not easy for Armenians to defend their position at the negotiating table either.
& # 171; What is consensus at the negotiating table? This is when you give something and take something, you have the opportunity to bargain, some kind of interaction is built on this, ”says Iskanderyan. – But after the lost war with the resources of Armenia itself, it is bad. Accordingly, there is a high probability that Armenia will have to agree to those conditions that, to put it mildly, do not very much suit it & # 187 ;.
Armenia, a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which unknowingly is often compared to NATO, in case of aggression can count on the help of its allies. This is in theory. In practice, its members do not have a unifying interest in the field of security. The same Armenia, Belarus or Kyrgyzstan have completely different threats, so the idea that in the event of an attack they will rush to defend each other is not taken seriously.
Delimitation and demarcation of the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan is one of the most difficult problems of the two countries, between which diplomatic relations have not yet been established
Instead, there is Russia, which in terms of population, territory, weapons, economy, etc., is superior to all other CSTO members combined. Because of this, there are no parity relations within the organization, all work is reduced to the format of bilateral communications with the Russian Federation. This is beneficial to Moscow, since it puts allies in direct dependence on it and keeps them at a distance from each other. In this regard, the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is very indicative. It was Russia that volunteered to be the mediator in its resolution; the voices of other CSTO members were not heard. She, and not Armenia or the CSTO, sets the tone at the negotiating table with Azerbaijan, whose positions are stronger than ever.
AT CONTINUATION LINES. Russian soldiers patrol Karabakh, November 12, 2021
Photo: Getty Images
Baku convinces that the Karabakh problem no longer exists.
“The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved, there is no need to negotiate on this issue,” said Ilham Aliyev, President of Azerbaijan, at a June meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Lithuania, Austria and Romania. – We have turned this page and are ready to go ahead & # 187 ;.
Yerevan insists on the opposite.
& # 171; The right of the people of Artsakh to self-determination cannot be suspended by force. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict awaits a fair settlement & # 187; – said Nikol Pashinyan, Prime Minister of Armenia, during the 76th session of the UN General Assembly.
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Despite the fact that these statements are formally addressed to the international community, their main addressee is the internal audiences of Azerbaijan and Armenia. Both leaders provide messages that are beneficial to them. And let the voice of the loser always sound quieter, Yerevan will not stop trying to raise the level of its subjectivity in negotiations with Baku. It's another matter whether Azerbaijan refuses to raise rates. There are big doubts on this score, because the winner in the post-Soviet space, by definition, gets everything.
https://thetimeshub.in/prisoner-of-the-caucasus-why-armenia-and-azerbaijan-want-peace-but-are-preparing-for-war