Turkey and Armenia, longtime enemies, will begin new talks next week in Moscow to normalize relations and open the last closed border left over from the Cold War.

The January 14 meeting came more than two months after President Joe Biden called on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Rome to work to establish diplomatic relations with landlocked Armenia and open the country’s common borders. official. Turkey closed the border in solidarity with Azerbaijan, an ally that fought a war with Armenia over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh in 1993.

Washington and European capitals are backing talks to reach a lasting solution to the conflict and to counter Moscow’s influence in the Soviet hinterland. Russia’s determination to dominate the region has re-emerged after sending troops to quell protests in Kazakhstan. Turkey’s goal is to tell US-led NATO allies who are dissatisfied with Russia’s acquisition of air defense systems that it is trying to stop Russian expansionism and become a safe trade route between China and the West.

“Normalization with Armenia fully corresponds to this picture. This will help Turkey to weaken Moscow’s influence in the region and expand Turkey’s influence, “said Emre Peker, Eurasian Group’s European Director.

Richard Giragosian, director of the Center for Regional Studies in the Armenian capital, Yerevan, said normalization of relations for landlocked Armenia was “an important means of overcoming isolation.”

Turkey’s and Armenia’s sharp animosity stems from the massacre of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire, and tensions over how to characterize the events of 1915, when 1.5 million Armenians were deported, killed and marched to their deaths. Armenians, backed by the Biden administration, describe it as genocide. Outraged by this characteristic, Turkey says that Armenians and Turks were killed in ethnic clashes during the collapse of the empire after Armenian groups sided with Russia in World War I.

In 2020, the Turkish army supported Azerbaijan when the armed conflict with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which is an enclave with an ethnic majority, re-ignited inside Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has regained control of parts of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas with the firing of armed drones supplied by Turkey. A troubled ceasefire was drafted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, but no peace agreement was signed.

Turkey has said that the dispute over the genocide allegations will not be on the table, and Giragosian commented on Armenia’s unconditional policy as “the issue of genocide has been postponed and entrusted to the post-normalization reconciliation process.”

But the road can be rocky. Peker said there was a “big risk” that the Armenian diaspora, along with the Armenian government, which in the past claimed that Turkey recognized the genocide, would play a role in decision-making.

After the agreement reached in 2009, previous attempts to defuse tensions failed after Turkey demanded the withdrawal of Armenian forces from Nagorno-Karabakh as a precondition.

The new talks come ahead of Ankara’s expected talks in Washington, including Turkey’s purchase of S-400 air defense systems from Russia, which has poisoned relations between NATO allies. Last week, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu stressed that Turkey is in full coordination with Azerbaijan, and that Turkish and Armenian representatives are expected to work on a roadmap that includes confidence-building measures in preparation for the meetings.

If Turkey agrees to open its border, businesses on both sides of the sleepy border could thrive, as it would link Armenia directly to one of the Middle East’s largest economies. Armenia lifted its embargo on Turkish goods on Jan. 1 in response to pressure from its business community seeking a way out for exports. The two countries have already agreed to resume direct charter flights.

“Armenia can open its economy. The lifting of the blockade will reduce the influence of both Iran and Russia in Armenia, “said Michael Rubin, a resident scientist at the American Institute of Entrepreneurship. “At the same time, businesses in eastern Turkey can benefit. There will be no real losers. “

Sarah Khojoyan from Bloomberg contributed to this report.