Is Going in the Wrong Direction
By Harut Sassounian
Publisher, The California Courier
www.TheCaliforniaCourier.com
2- Ruling Faction Nominates Vahagn Khachatryan for President of Armenia
3- Speaker of Parliament Simonyan Assumes Presidential Duties
4- Next Round of Armenia-Turkey Talks Set for February 24 in Vienna
5- Armenia Continues Fight Against COVID-19
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1- Poll Finds More Armenians Feel Country
Is Going in the Wrong Direction
By Harut Sassounian
Publisher, The California Courier
www.TheCaliforniaCourier.com
The Washington-based International Republican Institute’s public
opinion poll, conducted November 22-December 5, 2021, measured the
Armenian population’s views on political, economic, and security
issues. The survey was funded by the U.S. Agency for International
Development.
The poll revealed a key finding: 46% of the population thinks that
“Armenia is headed in the wrong direction,” while only 34% thinks that
the country is headed in “the right direction.” This indicates that
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s often-repeated boast that he enjoys
“the people’s mandate” is not necessarily so. This is a significant
shift from the 54% of the votes the Prime Minister’s political party
received in the June 20, 2021 parliamentary elections. More
importantly, the number of those who think that Armenia is headed in
the wrong direction increased from 20% in May 21, 2021 to 34% in July
2021 and 46% in December 2021.
However, on another important question, “Do you believe that you or
people like you can influence decisions made in our country,” 66% said
yes, while 33% said no. This is definitely a positive indication for
the authorities.
The next question: “Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way
democracy is developing in our country?” the country was almost evenly
split: 51% yes and 47% no.
To the question: “Do you consider our country to be governed in the
interest of the majority of people or in the interest of some groups?”
61% said it was governed in the interest of “some groups,” while only
31% said it was governed in the interest of “the majority.” This
reflects negatively on the current government.
On the positive side, 66% of the people surveyed said they are “not
afraid of openly expressing their opinions,” while 31% said they were
afraid to do so.
To the question: “How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the work
of the following state bodies?” the top approval was given to
Pashinyan government’s frequent critic, Human Rights Defender’s
(Ombudsman’s) office (68% satisfied vs. 25% dissatisfied); the police
(68% vs. 29%); local governments (63% vs. 33%); armed forces (58% vs.
37%); Central Electoral Commission (57% vs. 33%); and National
Security Service (50% vs. 41%). The Prime Minister’s office came in
7th place with 49% satisfied vs. 48% dissatisfied. The Armenian
Parliament came in 16th place with 31% satisfied and a whopping 67%
dissatisfied. This is not surprising as the parliament’s televised
sessions frequently show scenes of shouting matches, insults, and
physical altercations ending with abrupt orders by the parliament’s
leadership representing the Prime Minister’s political party to turn
off the TV cameras to hide the disorderly conduct of the rowdy
parliamentarians.
Turning to foreign policy issues, those surveyed ranked France on top
with 92% as having the best relationship with Armenia. Then came Iran
(80%); the United States (77%); China (75%); European Union (69%);
Russia (64%); Georgia (58%); UK (47%); other (10%); Turkey (5%); and
Azerbaijan at the very bottom with 3%.
When asked “Which two countries were the most important political
partners for Armenia?” Russia (57%); France (50%); the U.S. (38%);
Iran (23%); European Union (5%); China (5%); Georgia (3%); and India
(1%).
In response to “Which two countries are the most important economic
partners of Armenia?” Russia again came first with 61%; Iran (40%);
(China (29%); the U.S. (16%); France (14%); Georgia (8%); European
Union (7%); India (2%); and Turkey (2%).
When asked “Which 2 countries are the most important security partners
for Armenia?” the answers were: Russia (64%); France (32%); Iran
(31%); the U.S. (26%); European Union (5%); China (4%); Georgia (2%);
and India (1%).
“Which 2 countries are the greatest political threat to Armenia?” The
survey respondents said: Turkey (90%); Azerbaijan (77%); Russia (15%);
UK (3%); Israel (2%); the U.S, (2%); and Georgia (1%).
“Which 2 countries are the biggest economic threat to Armenia?” Survey
respondents said: Turkey (68%); Azerbaijan (52%); Russia (17%);
Georgia (10%); Iran (4%); the U.S. (1%); China (1%); and European
Union (1%).
“Which 2 countries are the greatest security threat to Armenia?”
Survey respondents said: Turkey (88%); Azerbaijan (81%); Russia (11%);
Iran (2%); the U.S. (2%); Israel (2%); Georgia (1%); France (1%); and
UK (1%).
“The relationship with which 2 countries needs to be improved for the
development of Armenia?” The survey respondents said: Russia (53%);
the U.S. (35%); Iran (29%); France (25%); China (15%); European Union
(9%); Georgia (7%); Turkey (5%); Azerbaijan (4%); India (1%); and UK
(1%).
The survey then asked if the respondents agreed or disagreed with the
following three questions:
1) 73% agreed and 25% disagreed that “Armenia should start a dialog
with Turkey and normalize bilateral relations, while pursuing the
agenda of recognition of the Armenian Genocide by Turkey.”
2) 70% agreed and 27% disagreed that “Armenia must establish bilateral
relations with Turkey by putting forward its own preconditions such as
Turkey’s non-hindrance of peace in Artsakh.”
3) 44% agreed and 53% disagreed that “Under no circumstances Armenia
should pursue normalization of relations with Turkey.”
Most survey respondents disagreed with Pashinyan that opening roads
with Azerbaijan is beneficial to Armenia. When asked: “How will the
opening of transport routes with Azerbaijan impact Armenia’s economic
development?” 27% gave a positive answer; 59% negative.
The same is true for Turkey. When asked: “How will the opening of
transport routes with Turkey impact Armenia’s economic development?”
35% gave a positive answer; 53% negative.
When asked: “How important is the resolution to the Artsakh conflict
for the future of Armenia in the next 10 years?” The overwhelming 96 %
said “important”; 3% “unimportant.”
The survey asked: “What would be an acceptable solution of the Artsakh
conflict?”
— 35% said: “Recognition of Artsakh as an independent state.”
— 34% said: “The unification of Artsakh with Armenia as a region of
the Republic of Armenia.”
— 16% said: “Establishment of the status of the Artsakh Autonomous
Region within Armenia.”
— 11% said: “Establishment of the status of Artsakh within Russia.”
— 1% said: “Maintaining the current status quo.”
When asked: “Is Armenia able to independently defend its borders with
Azerbaijan, without the help of any other country?” 46% said yes; 53%
no.
Finally, when asked: “Which country would you prefer to assist Armenia
in defending its borders?” 47% said Russia; the U.S. (18%); France
(14%); Iran (8%); China (2%); European Union (1%); all three Minsk
Group countries of Russia, the U.S., France (1%); and NATO (1%).
Whether we agree or disagree, these are the answers that the people of
Armenia gave. It reflects their current mindset.
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2- Ruling Faction Nominates Vahagn Khachatryan for President of Armenia
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his political team on Tuesday,
February 1 confirmed their decision to install High-Tech Industry
Minister Vahagn Khachatryan as Armenia’s president.
Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party announced the decision hours after
parliament speaker Alen Simonyan formally accepted President Armen
Sarkissian’s resignation and took over as interim president.
Simonyan will perform the largely ceremonial duties of Armenia’s
president until National Assembly controlled by Civil Contract elects
a new head of state. The vote is expected in late February or early
March.
Sarkissian announced his unexpected resignation on January 23, citing
a lack of constitutional powers vested in the presidency. Pashinyan
indicated the next day that he will replace Sarkissian by a figure
loyal to him.
Khachatryan effectively confirmed on Monday reports that he has been
offered to take up the post. He visited the parliament building in
Yerevan and met with lawmakers from the ruling party on Tuesday.
Civil Contract’s parliamentary leader, Hayk Konjorian, announced the
presidential nomination after the meeting that lasted for two and a
half hours. Konjorian said Khachatryan’s background and “political
prudence” make him a good fit for the job.
“I think we made a good choice,” agreed Simonyan.
Khachatryan, 62, is an economist who had served as mayor of Yerevan
from 1992-1996 during former President Levon Ter-Petrosian’s rule. He
was a staunch political ally of Ter-Petrosian until agreeing to join
Pashinyan’s government last August. Pashinyan’s party holds 71 seats
in the 107-member parliament, putting the party in a position to
install Khachatryan, without opposition support, in the second round
of voting.
Aram Vartevanian, a lawmaker from the main opposition Hayastan bloc,
all but ruled out such support, saying that Khachatryan is a partisan
figure who can hardly play the role stipulated by the Armenian
constitution. Vartevanian also told journalists that Hayastan has not
yet decided whether to nominate its own presidential candidate. The
other parliamentary opposition force, Pativ Unem (I Have Honor), has
also not named or backed any candidate so far.
The constitution requires the president of the republic to have been a
citizen of only Armenia and resided in the country for at least six
years preceding his or her election.
An Armenian investigative publication, Hetq.am, claimed on January 24
that Sarkissian violated this requirement. It said that he remained a
dual citizen of the Caribbean island country of Saint Kitts and Nevis
“not long before being elected president in March 2018.”
Sarkissian left Armenia several days before stepping down. In a
January 25 statement, his press office reaffirmed the stated reason
for his resignation and accused the independent publication of trying
to “divert public attention with a false agenda.”
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3- Speaker of Parliament Simonyan Assumes Presidential Duties
The speaker of Parliament, Alen Simonyan, assumed the duties of
Armenia’s president on Tuesday, after the seven-day grace period
concluded since Armen Sarkissian submitted his resignation the post on
January 23. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party
nominated Vahagn Khachatryan as its candidate for president, an
anticipated move given reports circulating in the media since Sunday.
According to Armenia’s Constitution, in the event of a vacancy in the
office of the president, the parliament speaker assumes those duties
until a new leader is elected.
The opposition I Have Honor factions said that it will not nominate a
candidate for president, given that the Civil Contract Party has a
majority in parliament and its nominee will not received the necessary
votes. The Armenia Alliance, the other, larger, opposition force in
parliament, has not made public its decision about fielding a
presidential candidate. The I Have Honor group has signaled that it
will support the Armenia Alliance’s candidate.
Simonyan met with the presidential staff and stressed the importance
of continuing the duties and work of the office and pledging that
until the election of a new president, the office will carry out the
work uninterrupted.
Simonyan later toured the presidential residence and became acquainted
with the activities of the staff.
Simonyan emphasized that his name was also suggested during talks
within his party, but he withdrew his candidacy.
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4- Next Round of Armenia-Turkey Talks Set for February 24 in Vienna
Special envoys from Armenia and Turkey are scheduled to meet for a
second time on February 24 in Vienna, Armenia’s foreign ministry
spokesperson, Vahan Hunanyan, said in a Facebook post on Thursday.
The special envoys Serdar Kilic and Ruben Rubinyan met in Moscow on
January 14 to kick start talks on normalization of relations between
Armenia and Turkey. Following the Moscow meeting, the Armenian and
Turkish foreign ministries issued identical announcements claiming
that they had agreed to continue talks “without preconditions.”
Rubinyan said that Armenia wants to open the border with Turkey and
establish diplomatic relations.
Ankara has echoed similar sentiments, but its leaders have hinted at
preconditions for establishing ties with Yerevan, one of them being
Armenia’s recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity, which
includes Artsakh. Turkish officials have also pressed Yerevan to
accept Baku’s proposal of establishing a land corridor between
Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan through Armenia, known as the “Zangezur
Corridor.”
Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan last week again hailed the process,
saying that his government, which he says is advancing a policy of
peace in the region, will make the process successful, saying what one
of his predecessors was not able to achieve his administration will,
referring to the failed 2009 Armenia-Turkey Protocol process.
President Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan again
discussed the Armenia-Turkey normalization of process with the Turkish
president’s chief advisor Ibrahim Kalin on Wednesday, February 2,
National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said in a
statement.
Sullivan and Kalin “discussed regional issues, including efforts by
Turkey and Armenia to normalize relations.”
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5- Armenia Continues Fight Against COVID-19
Armenia continues the fight against COVID-19, as the country continues
promoting the vaccination phase. Armenia's Ministry of Health
announced on January 11 new restrictions to curb the fast spreading of
the Covid-19 pandemic in the country. From January 22, people above 18
must present either a vaccination certificate or a negative recent
test result prior to entering restaurants, hotels, cinemas and other
similar venues, Xinhua news agency reported citing the MInistry as
saying. As of Monday, January 10 the country had administered a total
of 1,694,518 doses of Covid-19 vaccines, according to the Ministry.
The U.S. State Department on July 26 warned American citizens to
reconsider travel to Armenia due to the increase in cases of the
Covid-19.
“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has issued a
Level 3 Travel Health Notice for Armenia due to COVID-19, indicating a
high level of COVID-19 in the country,” said the State Department.
The State Department also urged U.S. citizens not to travel to the
Nagorno-Karabakh region due to armed conflict. “The U.S. government is
unable to provide emergency services to U.S. citizens in
Nagorno-Karabakh as U.S. government employees are restricted from
traveling there,” the State Department added.
WHO, with funding from the European Union, in September supplied X-ray
equipment to 7 COVID-19 frontline hospitals – 1 in the capital Yerevan
and in 6 other cities in Armenia.
A new law came into effect on December 10, by order of the Armenian
Ministry of Health, that would allow employers to fire workers who
refuse to provide proof of vaccination. Armenia has the lowest
vaccination rate in the region and Europe. Armenia began its mass
vaccination campaign in April with authorities planning to inoculate
700,000 of the country's 2.9 million citizens by the end of the year.
However, only 516,989 citizens had been fully vaccinated by Dec. 6.
620,000 doses of the Moderna vaccine were donated to Armenia by Norway
with the support of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism within the
framework of the Team Europe initiative is already in Armenia.
"The entire infrastructure is ready to carry out a large number of
vaccinations. I add that vaccination does not exclude the disease, but
reduces the risk of contagion", Armenian Health Minister Anahit
Avanesyan reported during a recent press conference, adding that the
late entry into force of the restrictive measures was a shortcoming of
her department. According to the minister, they are currently
considering the option of requesting certification of negativity from
Covid or vaccination to enter restaurants and attend concerts.
The Armenian government last week made changes in the COVID-19
response measures, shortening the recommended self-isolation time from
14 days to 7 days for vaccinated people and 10 days for unvaccinated
people starting the day of an administered PCR test. The
self-isolation period for the unvaccinated can be shortened down to 7
days in case of producing a negative PCR test result. The Armenian
government cited the policies of the United States CDC and a number of
European countries.
The government changed airport regulations, allowing visitors to enter
the arrival hall by maintaining safety guidelines. The decision took
effect February 1.
There were 30,506 active COVID-19 cases in Armenia as of February 7.
Armenia has recorded 391,588 coronavirus cases and 8,097 deaths;
352,985 have recovered.
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