Breaking Defense
[Israel relies on good relations with Russia to enable operations in
Syria. What happens if Russia invades Ukraine, though?]
By Arie Egozi
TEL AVIV: Like in the rest of the world, the Israeli defense
establishment is watching the Ukraine situation closely, and working
hard to figure out what a potential conflict between Moscow and Kyiv,
and Washington’s response, might mean for Israel’s interests.
More than many nations, Israel could find itself in an awkward spot.
On the one hand, the US is Israel’s biggest ally and longstanding
patron. At the same time, Jerusalem has to keep up good relations with
Moscow, in order to keep the ability to launch military strikes
against Iranian interests in Syria, where Russia largely controls the
airspace.
If the US were to call for wide sanctions against Russia, for example,
Jerusalem would have to weigh carefully any major steps forward; any
actions against Russia could result in Israeli operations being
blocked in Syria — potentially putting military personnel at risk if
they conduct operations Jerusalem views as vital for its own national
security.
In particular, a senior defense source said that Israel is currently
underway with a series of strikes against shipments of Iranian-made
rockets on their way to Lebanon, including one as recently as Tuesday
Washington time. This operation needs continued coordination between
Tel Aviv and Moscow to avoid harming Russian troops in Syria, which
would cross a red line for Moscow and endanger the ability to do
further operations.
Concerns about what could happen to Syrian operations should relations
with Russia shift were “brought up recently in some high-level defense
meetings, in which the top decision-makers were present,” the defense
source told Breaking Defense.
Giora Eiland, a retired major general and former head of the Israeli
National Security Council, said that if Washington asks Israel to
participate in sanctions against Russia Jerusalem will be in a very
“impossible” situation.
Even light sanctions could harm Israel’s standing with Russia, and
potentially, its technology industry. While Russia has not purchased
Israeli-made weapons since 2015, non-military technologies are
routinely sold to Russian firms.
Israel is also watching the Ukrainian situation as a potential
distraction for Washington, as Jerusalem makes its plans for how to
react to a new nuclear agreement with Iran. Officials this week
involved in the negotiations have signaled to the press that the
question of a new deal with Iran are coming to a head. While Israel
has made clear it is not in favor of any such deal, but has been
relatively quiet about it so as to not anger Washington.
In a new paper this week, Efraim Inbar, president of the Jerusalem
Institute for Strategy and Security, noted that Iran is also watching
the Russia situation and seeing how distracted Washington is by it. It
is possible, Inbar wrote, that Iran will try to push for a harder deal
during the Vienna negotiations knowing the Biden team could
desperately use a geopolitical win.
While defense sources tell Breaking Defense that Israel is not
planning to directly attack any Iranian nuclear sites should a new
agreement be signed, there are plans underway for increased sabotage
efforts that would seek to damage nuclear sites and centrifuges in
Iran. Those operations would begin should an agreement be reached that
Israel judges allows Iran to successfully create a nuclear weapon.
As a second source put it, the current plans “will take the shadow war
to new heights.” And if that happens, intelligence and defense
planners here are operating under the assumption that Iranian proxies
will step up attacks against Israeli targets in retaliation.
Moredchai Kedar, one of Israel’s top experts on middle Eastern Issues,
told Breaking Defense that “Washington will try to restrain Israel
from continuing the shadow war against Iran. This is reason for a
major concern in Jerusalem, and may create friction between the US and
Israel.”
And Eiland, the former National Security Council official, said that
regional powers in the Middle East are looking to see how the US
ultimately supports Ukraine.
“They see what has happened in Afghanistan and how the Americans do
not react to attacks on their forces in Iraq,” Eiland said. “This
brings especially the Saudis to think that one option for them is to
improve their relations with Iran.”
