Will Russia Use Azerbaijan to Evade Sanctions?

1945.com


By Michael Rubin
Feb. 25, 2022

Azerbaijan has long enjoyed a reputation in some American policy
sectors as a secular outpost willing to stand up both to Iran and
Russia. For almost a decade, if not longer, this reputation has been
wholly undeserved. In recent months, Azerbaijan has doubled down on
its business with the Islamic Republic of Iran, giving Iran’s hardline
leadership a financial lifeline. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev
has also steadily oriented Azerbaijan closer to Russia whereas a
decade ago, his aides used allegations of Kremlin ties to delegitimize
his opposition in conversations with Americans.

As the United States, European nations and others discuss the
imposition of sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of
Ukraine, the Kremlin, and its affiliated companies appear to be
preparing to use Azerbaijan to evade those sanctions. Less than a week
ago, Russia’s Lukoil bought a 9.99% stake in Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz
natural gas project from Malaysian oil and gas company Petronas, a
deal worth $1.45 billion. This makes Lukoil a partner of the
Azerbaijani state-owned oil firm SOCAR.

Azerbaijan and Turkey have long described the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan
(BTC) pipeline to Western diplomats as a means to bypass the
stranglehold that Russia otherwise has over gas deliveries to the
West. As Europe (and the Biden administration) again backtracks from
the Nord Stream-2 Pipeline and European countries confront the extent
of their energy dependence on Russia, the BTC pipeline assumes greater
importance. With Russia now expanding its stake to Azerbaijan’s gas
fields, it is crucial that the United States, European Union, and
individual countries not symbolically sanction Russia while allowing
it to benefit from its Azerbaijan investment. In essence, Russian
President Vladimir Putin seeks a win-win outcome: He gets Ukraine and
simply exports gas (at prices inflated by the crisis he created) via
other routes.

If the West is serious about pressuring Putin, it is essential they
close the Azerbaijan loophole. It is time to sanction SOCAR until the
state-owned Azerbaijani company completely divests itself from Russian
oil interests.