Ukraine is geopolitical follow-up to 44-day war, expert says

ARM INFO
Feb 28 2022
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo. The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian confrontation is, no doubts, a link in a long chain of geopolitical events, the independent analyst Saro Saroyan told  ArmInfo.  "To start realizing what is going on, we have to go back to  the 44-day war, which is, in fact, the first link in this  geopolitical chain.  

Back on November 9, 2020, it was clear a new geopolitical balance was  forming in the South Caucasus, with Turkey entering Russia's orbit  with the latter's silent consent. It should be stressed what happened  was the result of consensus between Moscow and Ankara," Mr Saroyan  said.  According to him, the results of the 44-day war were the  result of the alliance of convenience between Moscow and Ankara. And  the chain of the concerted geopolitical changes has now reached the  Black Sea region. As regards the year-and-a-half-long pause in the  process, Mr Saroyan believes the geopolitical centers needed time to  get ready for this geopolitical configuration. In this context, he  considers the South Caucasus and the Black Sea region part of one  process aimed at achieving a new balance in the region.  Such a  programme really exists, and accomplishing the tasks set by certain  circles was impossible without war, and such scenario is unfolding in  Ukraine now, Mr Saroyan said. According to him, it is too early to  speak of the essence and content of the programme. 

According to Saroyan, Russia is now carrying out a task of  demilitarizing Ukraine. The resultant developments will end in a new  type of iron curtain between Russia and the West. The rest depends on  the success of Russia's military operation in Ukraine. But the key  question is the Ukrainian people's ability to resist the invasion. 

The expert stressed that Turkey should not be expected to attempt to  change the status quo in the South Caucasus amid Russia's rather  successful military operation in Ukraine. And the war is controllable  now.  Mr Saroyan forecasts a radical change in the situation in case  of successful resistance by Ukrainians, and the war will become  uncontrollable. After that, all the stakes, programmes and decisions  will turn into a mess, which could cause new threats to Armenia by  Turkey.