ArmInfo. The ongoing Russian-Ukrainian confrontation is, no doubts, a link in a long chain of geopolitical events, the independent analyst Saro Saroyan told ArmInfo. "To start realizing what is going on, we have to go back to the 44-day war, which is, in fact, the first link in this geopolitical chain.
Back on November 9, 2020, it was clear a new geopolitical balance was forming in the South Caucasus, with Turkey entering Russia's orbit with the latter's silent consent. It should be stressed what happened was the result of consensus between Moscow and Ankara," Mr Saroyan said. According to him, the results of the 44-day war were the result of the alliance of convenience between Moscow and Ankara. And the chain of the concerted geopolitical changes has now reached the Black Sea region. As regards the year-and-a-half-long pause in the process, Mr Saroyan believes the geopolitical centers needed time to get ready for this geopolitical configuration. In this context, he considers the South Caucasus and the Black Sea region part of one process aimed at achieving a new balance in the region. Such a programme really exists, and accomplishing the tasks set by certain circles was impossible without war, and such scenario is unfolding in Ukraine now, Mr Saroyan said. According to him, it is too early to speak of the essence and content of the programme.
According to Saroyan, Russia is now carrying out a task of demilitarizing Ukraine. The resultant developments will end in a new type of iron curtain between Russia and the West. The rest depends on the success of Russia's military operation in Ukraine. But the key question is the Ukrainian people's ability to resist the invasion.
The expert stressed that Turkey should not be expected to attempt to change the status quo in the South Caucasus amid Russia's rather successful military operation in Ukraine. And the war is controllable now. Mr Saroyan forecasts a radical change in the situation in case of successful resistance by Ukrainians, and the war will become uncontrollable. After that, all the stakes, programmes and decisions will turn into a mess, which could cause new threats to Armenia by Turkey.