Image source: ndtv.com
Armenia was the sole member of the Council of Europe, which aligned with Russia in voting against the expulsion of Russia from the organization because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, Armenia, along with 35 other countries, chose to abstain in voting during an emergency session of the United Nations General Assembly on the March 2nd resolution, which denounced Russia’s military invasion into Ukraine.
Armenia’s perplexing support of Russia is unsurprising for the following reasons.
Pro-Russian narratives have been a salient feature of Armenian political discourse during the upheaval in Ukraine. This pattern was particularly demonstrated when the Armenian political leadership hailed the annexation of Crimea as a model exercise of the right to self-determination. Strikingly, former President Sargsyan went so far as to regard the referendum in Crimea as an exercise of the peoples’ right to self-determination through free _expression_ of will.
The turmoil in Ukraine further reinforced the Armenian political leadership’s fears about the repercussions of defying Russia. Former President Sargsyan even raised the situation in Ukraine as a justification for Armenia’s decision to join the Russian-dominated Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). By confirming its allegiance to Russia, the Armenian leadership hoped to avoid angering the Kremlin, and prompting it to take punitive measures against its possible “disobedience.” A closer look at Armenian discourse displays a tendency to treat Ukraine’s “outright defiance” of Russia’s strategic interests as the principal rationale behind the devastating crisis. It is unsurprising that the Armenian leadership has condemned the European Union’s “recklessness” and “interference” in the sphere of Russia’s privileged interests. Sargsyan would even attribute hindrances of the EU-backed Eastern Partnership to its anti-Russian nature. By joining the EAEU, Armenia has clarified that it does not support the EU’s destabilization policy, and wants to refrain from exacerbating the situation.
Despite his promises of revising Armenian-Russian inherently asymmetric relations, Sargsyan’s successor, Nikol Pashinyan, was quick to pledge Armenia’s unconcealed allegiance to Russia. Pashinyan repeatedly declared that Armenia is not going anywhere, while the Armenian-Russian “strategic friendship” would continue to deepen and develop.
At his initial meeting with Pashinyan, Putin stressed the necessity of continued cooperation in the international arena, focusing particularly on the UN, where the two nations “have always supported each other.” It is not a surprise that post-revolution Armenia voted against another UN resolution on the de-occupation of Crimea in December 2018. The resolution expressed grave concerns over the accumulation of Russian military forces in Crimea and called on Russia to end its “temporary occupation” of the Ukrainian region.
In addition to the reasons discussed as to why Armenia sides with the Kremlin, is the country’s mounting dependence on Russia in the aftermath of the 2020 Nagorno Karabakh war.
There has been an ingrained belief among Armenian leadership that Armenia only benefits from Russia’s greater involvement in its “near abroad”. All this comes down to Armenia’s inferiority complex and self-perception as a weak and small state, bound by neighboring Turkish-Azerbaijani hostilities. It is in this context that Russia is broadly perceived as a pivotal security ally in Armenian political thinking and in the public consciousness.
In the aftermath of the devastation of the 2020 war, Pashinyan stated that it is vital to deepen relations with Russia to ensure Armenia’s security. Moreover, he presented the issue of deploying Russian border guards along its entire border with Azerbaijan.
The Armenian authorities, media, and the intellectual community consistently feed the public with the ensuing narrative; that Russia saved Armenia by deploying peacekeepers across the conflict zone. Thus, the portrayal follows that all Armenians should be grateful to Russia and revere the Armenian-Russian alliance at all costs.
Notably, certain political figures and activists even go as far as fiercely condemning any anti-Russian sentiment, avowing that Russia is the only country that ended the war, while the European Union and the United States, allowed the bloodshed to continue by their inaction. The former Chief of the National Security Service Arthur Vanetsyan stated that there can be no better ally for Armenia than Russia. Several opposition leaders, such as former President Kocharyan and Artur Ghazinyan, a key member of the Armenia Alliance party, contended that considering the war’s ruinous effects on Armenia, it would be a reasonable decision and in the best interests of Armenia’s future, to become a part of Russia and form a united/common state with the Russian Federation.
Overall, there is a broad consensus among the representatives of the Armenian political elite that the acute threats posed to Armenia by Azerbaijan and Turkey warrant its heavy reliance on Russia. Thus, despite some resentment that Russian policy may generate, Armenia must refrain from “provoking” Russia. Otherwise, the latter will cause Armenia to be ‘hit where it hurts’ by arming Azerbaijan, increasing gas prices, or even mistreating the Armenian community in Russia.
The most conspicuous exception challenging these narratives is the National Democratic Pole, which blamed the devastating state of Armenia on Russia. The party achieved less than two per cent of the vote in the snap parliamentary elections of June 2021.
Furthermore, an immense source of fear for the Armenian economy is the crippling effect of western sanctions against Russia. As a result of heavy economic dependence on Russia – its economic downturn significantly aggravates Armenia’s economic crisis. Notably, Russia is the main external trade partner of Armenia. Not only is Russia the destination for over 27 per cent of Armenian exports, but Russian multinational corporations such as Gazprom Armenia, VTB Armenia and MTS Armenia are some of the principal taxpayers in Armenia. Moreover, in October 2021 Russia pledged to invest $1 billion into Armenia’s economy. Besides, Russia is home to more than 2.5 million Armenian migrants, and as of 2019, 45% of money transfers distributed to Armenia came from Russia.
Meanwhile, the depreciation of the Russian ruble means that the remittances sent from Russia will decrease in value. The ruble’s devaluation will inevitably lead to price increases in Armenian exports to Russia, thus affecting trade volumes. The Central Bank of Armenia confirmed that the depreciation of the ruble will have dreadful consequences on Armenian exports to Russia and payments from Armenian migrant workers.
It is for these reasons that Western sanctions imposed on Russia send ripples of apprehension into Armenia. Armenia currently remains amongst the minority in the international community that do not outwardly condemn the Kremlin’s coercive policies. The Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Mher Grigoryan even noted that “Russia not only plays a vital role in maintaining peace and stability in our region but also occupies a key place in our country’s economy. Russia is Armenia’s main trade partner.”
Generally, Pashinyan, consistent with his predecessor’s actions, continues to support even the most controversial Russian foreign policy actions, particularly by sending its troops to help squelch anti-government protests in Kazakhstan. The Armenian leadership has placed itself in the situation where it has little to no agency to oppose the Kremlin’s foreign policy agenda. Therefore, it is foreseeable that Armenia has not officially reacted to Russian aggression in Ukraine, while expressing hopes that Armenia’s “friendly countries” will resolve their conflict through “diplomatic dialogue.” As a result, Armenia is the only South Caucasus country that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has not tweeted about since the outbreak of the Russian invasion.
