Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia's Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B+' with a Stable Outlook, the agency said on Friday.
"Russia accounted for 28% of goods exports, 37% of imports, and 40% of tourism arrivals, foreign direct investment, and remittances for Armenia as of 2021. The immediate impact of sharply higher natural gas prices will be limited, given that Armenia has locked in gas import prices with Russia as of December 2021, for multiple years. Some disruption to trade relationships is likely given the loss of correspondent banking relationships of Russian banks operating in Armenia. Russia's deep recession and the large depreciation of the Russian rouble will hit Armenian exports," Fitch said.
"The headwinds associated with the Ukraine conflict and sanctions on Russia have caused us to revise down our growth projection for 2022 sharply to 1.3% (previously 5.3%), as export growth (particularly to Russia) stalls, and remittances (and hence household consumption) decline. We project growth will return to 4.2% in 2023 ('B' median: 3.6%), reflecting favourable domestic investment prospects and an expected positive contribution of net trade," it noted.
Fitch is one of the top three credit rating agencies internationally, along with Moody's and Standard & Poor's.
